November Weather Discussion. Rollercoaster Pattern.

[Mr. T]

SPC conferencing with NWS Houston and is about to issue a severe thunderstorm watch which will be in effect until 3am.

just issued!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 738 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC005-015-037-039-041-051-067-071-073-089-157-167-183-185-199-
201-203-225-239-241-245-291-313-315-321-339-347-351-361-365-373-
401-403-405-407-419-423-455-457-459-471-473-477-481-020800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0738.101102T0050Z-101102T0800Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANGELINA AUSTIN BOWIE
BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON
CASS CHAMBERS CHEROKEE
COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON
GREGG GRIMES HARDIN
HARRIS HARRISON HOUSTON
JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON
LIBERTY MADISON MARION
MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES
NEWTON ORANGE PANOLA
POLK RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY
SMITH TRINITY TYLER
UPSHUR WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON

[srainhoutx]

Large Watch area as well.

[svrwx0503]

Quick mesoscale update...

Currently the main frontal boundary looks to still be located across northern sections of the Hill county moving slowly southeast at this time. Look for the front to start to increase its forward speed later this evening in response to stronger mid-level forcing ahead of the main upper low currently digging south into west Texas.

The band of showers and strong thunderstorms along a line from around Bellville to Conroe to Livingston is located where the strongest low level moisture convergence is currently occurring. Look for stronger frontal forcing to move into the region over the next few hours which should help kick off additional thunderstorm activity, some of which could be strong to severe. Model soundings indicate rather decent CAPE in the hail growth region with ML CAPE values running in the 2000-2500J/kg range across southeast Texas. That combined with steeping low to mid-level lapse rates will continue to support a hail and strong wind threat through at least midnight.

As we have been seeing across Montgomery county this evening, individual storm motion will be to the northeast while the entire line or complex of storms will be progressing ESE. This will tend to cause storms to train over the same areas possibly causing some localized street flooding issues.

[Andrew]

Close to 6 inches NW of Conroe. No sign of movement either....

[srainhoutx]

Impressive Upper Air dynamics setting up...edit to add it's good to see folks signing up and monitoring the forum...
In total there are 22 users online :: 7 registered, 1 hidden and 14 guests (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)

[Mrs.Frosty]

Is there a chance that some of these cells could become tornadic? (specifically the one currently moving through montgomery county and into liberty)

[svrwx0503]

Is there a chance that some of these cells could become tornadic?

There is a small chance, especially with any storm that interacts with any left over boundaries from previous storms in the area. Right now, I am watching the storm near Cut and Shoot very closely because it was showing some decent mid-level rotation about 5-10min ago. The rotation has since weakened a bit but the storm is still showing signs that it is rotating. People living just north of Splendora up to Cleveland need to watch this storm closely over the next 30min or so.

The main severe weather threats tonight are going to be hail and wind, not tornadoes even though you can't completely rule an isolated one out of the picture.

[svrwx0503]

It looks like the rotation has died out on that eastern Montgomery county storm for now, but some strong gusty winds remain possible east of Cut and Shoot over to Cleveland.

[Mrs.Frosty]

Thank you !
That's where we are , in Cleveland !
Hopefully it'll stay a no-warning storm !

[ticka1]

will it move south or continue moving east?

[svrwx0503]

Right now it looks to be moving a bit more south of east and the strongest part of the storm for now could stay to the southwest of Cleveland.

[srainhoutx]

HGX Update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
757 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THREAT ON THE INCREASE AS OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE FROM NEAR
COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO COLDSPRING MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. PREFRONTAL
TROUGH THROUGH CLL AREA AND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO
NW COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT HOUR. EXPECT THE TWO TO SANDWICH THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WE HAD IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. TIED A RECORD
HIGH AT IAH...89 DEGREES. UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL BE RAPIDLY
INCREASING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH AND
SPEED MAX S OF SAT RACES INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA LOOKS
ON TRACK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED FOR THE CWA.
EXPECT THAT SEVERE THREAT MAY TAPER DOWN AFTER 1 AM BUT HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE.

[svrwx0503]

New development near La Grange is associated with the main frontal forcing and this area should be watched closely for strong storm development over the next hour to so. This will likely be the activity that will have a good chance of moving into the metro area later tonight.

[svrwx0503]

The Conroe airport has reported 1.85'' of rain in the past hour.

[srainhoutx]

Noticeable increase in low level moisture in NW Harris County this evening. No rain here, so far…

[biggerbyte]

I can hear it thundering off to north of Porter. Not a drop here so far. It has been staying north and east of my area.
I'm sure that will change. All of the dynamics are in play, so it is just a matter of time.

[biggerbyte]

It's here. I should have checked the radar before posting. It's pouring down. Gosh! How long has it been?


You folks in Harris County watch out. An outflow boundary is heading south out of Montgomery County and into yours. That just adds fuel to the fire.

[weatherguy425]

What's with the storms firing northwest of Austin? is it a shortwave moving along the trough axis?

[srainhoutx]

Severe Watch for Central and S Central TX...

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors to the W...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1050 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

TXC149-020415-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-101102T0415Z/
FAYETTE TX-
1050 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY...

AT 1048 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR MULDOON...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF FLATONIA...MOVING SOUTH
AT 5 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO O
QUINN AND MULDOON.