November Weather Discussion. Rollercoaster Pattern.

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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To start of November:

November Temperature and Precipitation Normals (1971-2000)
and Extremes for Houston (1889-2007)
(last updated 11/9/08)

-------------- TEMPERATURE ------------------- ----- PRECIPITATION -----
NORMAL RECORD LOW RECORD HIGH RECORD CUMULATIVE PCPN
MAX MIN MAX YEAR MAX MIN YEAR MIN PCPN DAILY YEARLY
---------------------------------------------- -------------------------
1 77 54 89 1978 53 1895 35 1993* 75 1961 6.25 1943 0.15 40.11
2 77 53 89 1978* 49 1951 34 1991 71 1946 4.58 1943 0.30 40.26
3 77 53 87 1992* 48 1991 30 1999 74 1994 3.09 1892 0.45 40.41
4 76 53 89 1988 52 1954 28 1991 76 1994 3.20 1902 0.60 40.56
5 75 53 88 1963 53 1995 31 1991 71 1922 5.22 1925 0.75 40.71

6 75 52 88 1963 50 1959 36 1993* 71 1989 1.67 1892 0.89 40.85
7 74 52 88 1969 53 1938 29 1993 72 1989 1.46 1991 1.03 40.99
8 74 52 89 1989* 52 1968 34 1991* 74 1986 1.47 1990* 1.17 41.13
9 74 52 88 1969 46 1955 29 1991 72 1946 3.08 1952 1.31 41.27
10 73 52 88 2006* 49 1950 30 1977 72 1995 2.85 1898 1.45 41.41

11 73 51 87 1978 45 1907 32 1977 74 1911 1.88 1935 1.59 41.55
12 73 51 85 2003* 44 1907 32 1987 73 1896 4.68 1998 1.73 41.69
13 72 50 86 2005* 42 1976 29 1907 75 1993 4.53 1961 1.87 41.83
14 72 50 89 1921 38 1920 28 1969 74 1985 1.40 1998 2.01 41.97
15 72 50 88 1978 46 1959 25 1969 74 1955 2.80 1956 2.15 42.11

16 72 50 85 1948 46 1976 25 1970 76 1958 3.03 1948 2.29 42.25
17 71 49 84 1985 42 1932 31 1997 75 1957 5.19 2003 2.43 42.39
18 71 49 84 1973 47 2000 28 1959 74 1985 3.36 1953 2.57 42.53
19 71 49 85 1985 47 1903 31 1903 70 1899 2.05 1995 2.71 42.67
20 70 49 84 1977 46 1937 27 1969 72 1900 1.85 1907 2.85 42.81

21 70 48 84 2007* 45 1972 29 1937 70 1909 1.54 1977 2.99 42.95
22 70 48 87 1973 39 1929 30 1975 72 1983 3.09 2004 3.13 43.09
23 70 48 85 1973 40 1957 24 1975 75 1973 3.81 1986 3.27 43.23
24 69 48 84 1910 45 1972 26 1970 69 1902 3.35 1940 3.41 43.37
25 69 47 86 1967 44 1996 29 1950 71 1985 1.70 1987 3.54 43.50

26 69 47 86 1967* 42 1980 27 1975 73 1990 3.17 1893 3.67 43.63
27 69 47 84 1989 46 1918 26 1975 73 1964 3.12 1962 3.80 43.76
28 68 46 83 1977 39 1976 26 1976 68 2006 1.82 2001 3.93 43.89
29 68 46 83 2006 40 1911 22 1976 70 2006 3.47 1981 4.06 44.02
30 68 46 82 1967 46 1955 19 1976 69 1991 1.41 1968 4.19 44.15

* indicates a record that has been tied in a previous year

November Normals
high: 72.0F
low: 49.8F
mean temperature: 60.9F
rainfall: 4.19"
heating DD: 181
cooling DD: 61

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_normals_nov
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Ptarmigan
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November 1924 and 1952 came after a very dry October and were La Nina. November 1924 was dry, while 1952 was wet. It could be possible that this November could be wet. This Upper Texas Coast data.

Rain
Image
Correlation=0.003825

Temperature
Image
Correlation=0.17055

There is no correlation with October and November rainfall. However, there is a correlation with October and November temperature. The warmer the October, the warmer November will be.
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svrwx0503
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Looking at some of the medium range progs, cooler weather will likely persist over the next couple of weeks. Models are indicating that a trough will develop east of the rockies and could become cutoff over the southeast US early next week. The 12z GFS is much further west with the placement of the low and has it moving into southeast Texas from the northeast by next wed/thur. This would likely mean cooler and possibly damp weather for the first week of November.
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Mr. T
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The calendar flips and so does the weather:

Image

We've got some cool, wet days ahead. Finally...
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Ptarmigan
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:An end to
SUPER BORING MONTH LONG ENNUI ATTACK!!??!!??11!!??7!!!11???
CAP TOTALLY ERODES BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY`S SOUNDINGS INDICATE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY MORNING. A POSITIVELY-TILTING TROUGH
SETTLING DOWN OVER THE STATE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY`S
SUNRISE PLACES THE BEST DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER THE
CWA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO PUMP TO BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES AHEAD
OF TUESDAY`S MID-LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PASSAGE.

THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DEVELOPING MCS (OR A SQUALL LINE) WILL BE
DETERMINED UPON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE LL SHEAR. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROF AHEAD OF A MAIN NORTH/CENTRAL TX QLCS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
0-3KM SRH...WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY INTAKE BELOW ESTABLISHED MID-
UPPER LEVEL SW`ERLIES...TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LL VEERING WITH HGT TO
MAKE FOR A TERTIARY THREAT OF ROTATING CELLS. PROG SOUNDING STORM
PARAMETERS MORE STRONGLY SUGGEST ISOLATED SEVERE WITH WIND AND
RAIN BEING THE LEADING THREATS.
About time. Good riddance to that cockroach ridge! :twisted: :lol:
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Ptarmigan wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:An end to
SUPER BORING MONTH LONG ENNUI ATTACK!!??!!??11!!??7!!!11???
CAP TOTALLY ERODES BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY`S SOUNDINGS INDICATE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY MORNING. A POSITIVELY-TILTING TROUGH
SETTLING DOWN OVER THE STATE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY`S
SUNRISE PLACES THE BEST DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER THE
CWA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO PUMP TO BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES AHEAD
OF TUESDAY`S MID-LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PASSAGE.

THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DEVELOPING MCS (OR A SQUALL LINE) WILL BE
DETERMINED UPON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE LL SHEAR. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROF AHEAD OF A MAIN NORTH/CENTRAL TX QLCS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
0-3KM SRH...WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY INTAKE BELOW ESTABLISHED MID-
UPPER LEVEL SW`ERLIES...TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LL VEERING WITH HGT TO
MAKE FOR A TERTIARY THREAT OF ROTATING CELLS. PROG SOUNDING STORM
PARAMETERS MORE STRONGLY SUGGEST ISOLATED SEVERE WITH WIND AND
RAIN BEING THE LEADING THREATS.
About time. Good riddance to that cockroach ridge! :twisted: :lol:
And Time for some fun :twisted:
.
.
.
hopefully

00z gfs backs off a lot :(

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Rain is going to be very dependent on where low sets up shop:

Image
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srainhoutx
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Fingers crossed...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH & EAST TX/WRN LA...

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO DEEP SOUTH TX BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG A SURGING COLD FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DRT TO TXK.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
SIGNIFICANT...850MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 10 KT...SUFFICIENT ASCENT
ATOP FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD FORCE PARCELS TO THEIR LFC AND SCT-NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ATOP MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN A 5%
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE...PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL...AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR
IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MANY UPDRAFTS COULD
ACTUALLY EVOLVE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SURGING WIND SHIFT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR AND THIS WILL CERTAINLY AID THE POSSIBILITY FOR NUMEROUS
ROBUST UPDRAFTS. THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AND A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE WARRANTED.

..DARROW.. 10/31/2010
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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This may get interesting after all...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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svrwx0503
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12z NAM/GFS model soundings continue to indicate an isolated severe risk across the region with decent a very decent CAPE profile and a good hail growth region, so I would suspect to see SPC go ahead and put out a slight risk for our region with hail and winds the main threats. There is some clockwise turning in the low level hodographs (suggesting some low level wind shear) but the lack of significant speed/low level bulk shear will work against much of a tornado threat.

Agree with HPC that most of the region should pick up some very much needed rain. Managed to go the entire month of October without a drop of rain at the house, so I am hoping my house will come in towards the higher end of the HPC forecast (closer to 2'') :D
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svrwx0503
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SPC AC 311728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX HILL
COUNTRY AND TX COASTAL PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT
AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD ONTO THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN AND INTO THE ARKLATEX MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL AND EAST TX BY
MONDAY AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES MAINLY DUE TO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS INITIATE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING NUMEROUS STORMS FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY NEWD INTO THE
ARKLATEX WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN
AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. IN SPITE OF WHAT COULD BE A LATE INITIATION...A SEVERE
THREAT COULD EXIST IN THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND TX HILL COUNTRY
MONDAY EVENING AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MONDAY EVENING...A FEW STORMS COULD ROTATE RESULTING IN A HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE THREAT. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT RISK FROM
AROUND SAN ANTONIO ENEWD TO THE HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION AREAS.

FURTHER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND WRN LA...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

..BROYLES.. 10/31/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1733Z (12:33PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Link to outlook.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
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srainhoutx
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svrwx0503 wrote:SPC AC 311728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX HILL
COUNTRY AND TX COASTAL PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT
AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD ONTO THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN AND INTO THE ARKLATEX MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL AND EAST TX BY
MONDAY AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES MAINLY DUE TO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS INITIATE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING NUMEROUS STORMS FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY NEWD INTO THE
ARKLATEX WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN
AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. IN SPITE OF WHAT COULD BE A LATE INITIATION...A SEVERE
THREAT COULD EXIST IN THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND TX HILL COUNTRY
MONDAY EVENING AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MONDAY EVENING...A FEW STORMS COULD ROTATE RESULTING IN A HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE THREAT. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT RISK FROM
AROUND SAN ANTONIO ENEWD TO THE HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION AREAS.

FURTHER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND WRN LA...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

..BROYLES.. 10/31/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1733Z (12:33PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Link to outlook.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
It (The rain/storms) has been a long time coming....over 40 days now for me...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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msanwxfan
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Tuesday - high chance of rain and after cold front pushes that night into the morning, rain will linger and high pressure will continue to push cold air south. According to 12 GFS, we could see well below normal temps after tuesday, and its confident of that.
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Ptarmigan
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Looks to be a Monday night to early Tuesday morning storm. Could get very rough that time.
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srainhoutx
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Our long boring weather pattern is about to make a 180. It is becoming a bit clearer that we may have some severe weather ahead from Monday afternoon/evening until Tuesday morning across the area. Folks need to pay close attention since it has been a while for this type of set up. Our severe weather folks will likely be very active over the next 36-40 hours. :mrgreen:

FXUS64 KHGX 312048
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

.DISCUSSION...

WARMER AFTERNOONS AND MILDER EVENINGS IN STORE FOR US THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS REGION FALLS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN
APPROACHING LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY COLD FROPA. MODEL
RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE MESSAGE OF LIKELY EARLY WEEK
RAIN CHANCES...WITH A LATE WEEK COOL DOWN. IN THE SHORT TERM...A
PLEASANT HALLOWEEN EVENING AS EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER A SOUTHERLY BREEZE. THERE IS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF EARLY MONDAY MORNING PATCHY DENSE FOG UNDER A DEVELOPING
MID-LAYER STRATUS DECK. SOUTHERN MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL MOISTEN
UP THE LOWER COLUMN THROUGH TOMORROW WITH HIGHEST PWATS OF 1.5
INCHES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY 00Z TUESDAY. OF COURSE...THIS
SUPPORTS A THETA E RIDGE AXIS RESIDING PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE.
THUS...EXPECTING INCREASING PROBS OF UNDER-THE-CAP RAIN SHOWERS
FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING ONWARD WITH MODEST OFFSHORE TO LOWER 1/3 CWA
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEPENING WESTERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL
DIG DOWN OVER TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AS WE HAVE FALLEN UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER PER THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK.

ALL OF THE PARAMETERS ARE THERE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HOURS.
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FALL OVER SE TX FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY ON THROUGH 12Z...SIGNALING THAT ANY MCS OR SQUALL LINE
THAT FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS/HILL COUNTRY WILL BE AFFECTING US
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK WITH DECENT
CAPE AND LOWER WET BULBS TO INDICATE THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND
AND HAIL. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...OR DOWNSTREAM GUST FRONT...TO
INITIATE FAR NORTHERN CONVECTION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
WITH THE MAIN FRONT SLOWING AS IT REACHES THE COAST...ALONG WITH A
GOOD PROBABILITY OF A QUASI-LINER BROKEN LINE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FA...HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
THREAT (FOR OUR COASTAL/SE`ERN COUNTIES) TUESDAY MORNING.
THE 5H
LOW TO BECOME CUT-OFF AND SLIDE SOUTH RIGHT OVER US LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WESTERN DRY SLOT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS FEATURE MAY SHUT OFF WESTERN FA RAIN/THUNDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW ATOP OF THE CWA WILL KEEP
AT LEAST 30-40 POPS ALIVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A TRICKY MID-WEEK TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS CAA...IN COMBO
WITH A WET GROUND...INTERMITTENT SHOWERS..AND OVERCAST SKIES APPEAR
TO HAVE WEDNESDAY`S AFTERNOON INTERIOR TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
ACHIEVE THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.


AS THE LOW/TROUGH AXIS TRAVELS EAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON
THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPSLOPE ALONG ITS BACKSIDE TO ALLOW
FOR PERSISTENT WIDELY-SCATTERED SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FA. TOO DIFFICULT TO PEG WHERE WED-THU RAIN WILL FALL
AS IT IS TRULY DEPENDENT UPON THE LOW`S EVENTUAL EASTERN PROGRESSION
...BUT IT APPEARS WHAT PRECIPS OUT WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH AS LATE
AS THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE STRONG REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS
SOUTH OUT OF THE LEEWARDS...MORE EFFICIENT CAA WILL KICK IN AND
PRODUCE STRONG 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. WED AND THUR`S OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE IN GUSTS AS A COOLER DRY AIR MASS
OVERRUNS WARMER SHELF WATERS...IN TANDEM WITH THE VERY TIGHT WEST-
TO-EAST SYNOPTIC GRADIENT. REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE/IMPROVE
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A WIDER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. AVERAGE
UPPER 60/LOWER 70S MAX TEMPS WITH CHILLER NIGHTS IN THE FAR INLAND
MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING. 31
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Mr. T
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Also of note, 12z Euro and CMC indicate that 850 temps will near 0C by week's end with a cold canadian high settling overhead. If this is to occur, we'll likely see our first taste of widespread 30s by the end of the week with freezing temps possible for our northern counties
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WOW!!! Just WOW. Exciting possibilities and welcome change. Just in time before everything dies. :)
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biggerbyte wrote:WOW!!! Just WOW. Exciting possibilities and welcome change. Just in time before everything dies. :)
What's with all these words in the forecast? I can't remember what any of this means...

Monday Night...Rain likely and isolated thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 60 percent in the evening increasing to 70 percent after midnight.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy with rain likely and isolated thunderstorms in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe in the morning. Cooler. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent in the morning decreasing to 50 percent in the afternoon.


:o
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Gosh!!!! I don't know, T.. Must be some new toy the weather kids are playing with. Lol

I'm do done with this dry weather and hurricane season. I'm sure many in this forum are. Maybe we get to have some fun with fall, and maybe winter to some degree. I'd settle for a snow flame or ice pellet or two. Anything!!! You?
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Looks like svrwx0503 will be able to put up his radar in the next couple days.

Very nice:

Image

From the Sounding Plots it looks like on the 4th things will really clear up:

http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/plot_sound ... art=latest
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Corpus has issued a SWS regarding the severe weather threat and cold front...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
321 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

TXZ229>234-239>247-010500-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LAREDO...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...
ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...
INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...
WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
321 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SOUTH
TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RAPIDLY MOVE SOUTH AND MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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