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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 03, 2024 1:56 pm Cromagnum nope, its looking quite the opposite actually starting mid month and beyond, all of the teleconnections go negative

Alaska is cold as can be right now. Unless it suddenly warms up out there, I'm not convinced.

Cromagnum , yeah its been crazy cold up there, but thats going to be changing over the next 10 days, Fairbanks is one of the coldest places in alaska and the united states in general , and after todays high of -32, they are expected to climb in into the single digits to low teens for highs next week, so almost a good 40-45 degree swing upwards, alaska is going to warm up lol, ridging begins to build up there

Wxman57 comment on S2K says a lot about the cold in Alaska:

Cold in Alaska = warm over the lower 48. Start to be concerned about cold down here when it's very warm in Alaska, as it was during the brutally cold winter of 1976-1977. Many of you were not around then. It was so cold across the U.S. that the Mississippi froze all the way down to St. Louis. Ice flows passed New Orleans in the spring. It snowed in Miami and the Keys. Meanwhile, U.S. troops in Alaska for winter survival training were suffering from heat exhaustion.

Noaa sees the pattern change, big changes in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook

#NWSAnchorage
Todays low temperature of -21 degrees at the Ted Stevens International Airport marks the coldest day Anchorage has experienced in 15 years. On January 9, 2009, the airport dropped down to -24 degrees. #akwx

Looks like things are gonna get pretty nasty around here by the middle of the month. Definitely wouldn’t rule out a winter storm.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2024 7:24 am Looks like things are gonna get pretty nasty around here by the middle of the month. Definitely wouldn’t rule out a winter storm.

Agree.

I have a birthday a month from today. Personally, I for one would not mind a bit of a cool early Spring. But, that is me my preference.

Even if we get a winter storm mid month doesn’t mean Spring isn’t just around the corner. In fact, signs of Spring are already starting to show where I live. New grass is coming up and the weeds are going crazy along the fence lines and around the house!

Latest CPC outlook 6-10 and 8-14 days feature below normal temps and above normal precipitation, we will see how this plays out

Is this weekend still looking like a washout on Saturday? My run club was to have an event.

I’m not seeing any cold air in the models that will give us any type of a winter storm. It looks like a goood storm system around the 17th give or take but it doesn’t look like the cold air will be there. Other than that, nada.

Larry Cosgrove this morning sees cold air heading our way:

It would be wise to do a walk-through on why the weather pattern will be colder than what we have experienced nationally since mid-January. This is not February 2021 redux; rather, it is a more spread-out event that will support perhaps two ice and snow events along the southern and eastern tier of the lower 48 states. I cannot be any more specific than that, but the similarity of the numerical models and analogs is impressive.

Most likely time frame: February 12 – March 7. There could be a small break of moderation involved somewhere. But climatology of -EPO/-AO/-NAO blocking scenarios basically involves temperature averages in most of the USA being below normal. And in the case of the south central and Dixie states, well below average.

Storm threats: judging by the 500MB height anomalies on the various models, February 12 – 14 and February 17 – 20. Track probability is greatest along a South Texas – Florida – Nova Scotia arc. The second threat appears to be greater and would involve a good deal of frozen types to the left of the path of the disturbances.

Strongest cold potential: February 16 – 20 from the High Plains to the Gulf and East Coast.

Clues in the synoptic pattern that the cold/snow risks should not be taken lightly: even with so much ridging, a gap in the upper flow is present which will allow for cross-polar flow. Also, note that the Arctic jet stream dips below the Great Lakes with recurrent cAk vortex formation in Ontario, James Bay, and Quebec. Also note the evolution of a storm aloft that gets into Baja California. Very low in latitude, redevelopment should be below the TX Gulf Coast. That trajectory is a colder and wetter one for the Lone Star State, the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard.

I don’t see it happening

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 07, 2024 10:53 am I don’t see it happening

Yeah, I don't either. It's cool spring right now. Warm spring will be here soon.

Something like this…

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models are in good enough agreement for Sunday/D4, depicting a
progressive shortwave trough moving from the southern Plains into
the lower MS Valley. This system will maintain a positive-tilt
overall, but is forecast to deepen. Gradual height falls will
overspread the Gulf Coast region on Sunday/D4, as low pressure moves
from eastern TX across LA and MS, turning northward into TN by 12Z
Monday/D5.

A more favorable warm sector will be in place by this time, with
widespread mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of a developing cold front.
This should contribute to around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE from southeast TX
across southern LA, with lesser values farther east.

Given the trajectory of the low and position of the most favorable
air mass, the greatest chance of severe storms looks to be from
eastern TX across southern LA, beginning early over TX and pushing
toward MS by 12Z Monday/D5. Wind fields will favor both damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes assuming dewpoints trending
higher/mid to upper 60s F. However, there is some concern about warm
sector quality given the possibility of precipitation prior to the
low/cold front arrival.

I am officially out of the drought! Woo hoo!

djmike wrote: ↑Thu Feb 08, 2024 12:17 pm IMG_1436.jpeg
I am officially out of the drought! Woo hoo!

Yay. Same here (Galveston County).

I am shocked that Louisiana still has that much drought coverage.
They must’ve been WAYYY behind.

Lots of rain coming mid month folks.