February 2024

[Cromagnum]

80 degrees and humid. Disgusting for February.

Not humid where I’m at. Feels great. You need to move up north lol this weather here ain’t for you.

I'm from Crosby originally, it's just as I've gotten older I've become so much less tolerant of the heat.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 261048
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
448 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 223 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

Did y`all know that there`s a "For Pete`s Sake" Day? Me either...but
the timing couldn`t be any better since today`s high temperatures
will likely make ya say "Oh for Pete`s sake!" Before we get to the
abnormally warm temperatures though, we`ll likely have some patchy
fog to deal with in some spots. Southerly winds remain around 10 mph
early this morning, but model guidance still indicates the potential
for patchy fog mainly south of I-10 and west of I-45. Patchy fog for
some, but humid for all as you step out the door this morning as our
overnight temperatures (low to mid 60s) are very close to our normal
high temperature (upper 60s). Southwest flow aloft at 850mb
continues to advect very warm temperatures with 850mb temperatures
reaching the 19-22°C range this afternoon (99th to MAX percentile).
Winds at the surface will be out of the southwest as well along with
PW values mainly in the 0.8"-1.0" range, which is a bit on the drier
side. Cloud cover scatters out enough (especially north of I-10) for
plenty of solar radiation to reach the surface this afternoon. Long
story short...it`s gon` be warm! Temperatures continue to outperform
model guidance by a couple of degrees, so I nudged up highs in the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods to reflect some mid 80s. Elsewhere, expect
highs to range from the upper 70s to low 80s. That`s ~10-15°F above
normal...but hey it could be worse...Dallas/Fort Worth is expected
to be in the 90s today!

Going into this evening, a 35-45 kt LLJ moves in as surface low
pressure drifts eastward from the Northern Plains towards the Upper
Midwest and tightens the pressure gradient. Winds at the surface
transition to southerly, which allows for low-level clouds to fill
back in. The elevated winds overnight are likely to inhibit fog
potential. Temperatures tonight remain mild though with widespread
lows in the mid 60s. The LLJ lingers into Tuesday, so expect some
moderate winds especially in the late morning to afternoon hours
with sustained winds around 15-20 mph and higher gusts especially
south of I-10. That combined with lingering cloud cover throughout
the day as moisture increases ahead of a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary that stalls out to our northwest in the afternoon, and
we`ll see temperatures a degree or so "cooler" than Monday`s. That`s
in spite of 850mb temperatures remaining in their 99th to MAX
percentile. Even though PW values surge up to 1.0"-1.3" on Tuesday
afternoon (90th percentile: ~1.37"), a VERY robust capping inversion
aloft plus the lack of a sufficient lifting mechanism keeps rain
chances slim to none.

An upper level trough transiting through the Four Corners region and
into the Great Plains provides the push needed for the stalled out
frontal boundary to begin to push towards Southeast Texas going into
late Tuesday night. As you can imagine, FROPA timing has quite the
impact on the low temperature forecast. The front should make it
into the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods right around sunrise early
Wednesday morning, so their lows will likely be in the upper 50s.
Elsewhere, out ahead of the front, expect lows to range from the low
to upper 60s. See the long term discussion below for more post-FROPA
details...

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 223 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

Our next cold front will be moving across the area on Wednesday. Latest
available models early this morning appear to be on target in bringing
the front and associated northwest to north wind shift into our northern
counties around 6 AM, and they race the boundary off the coast and into
our coastal waters before noon. High temperatures for the day could
end up in the morning ahead of the front, and have tried to reflect
this possibility in our forecast. Highs in the morning in the 60s/70s
will for the most part be on a downward trend as the day progresses.
The breezy/gusty north winds behind the front will persist into Wednesday
night (low temperatures mostly in the 40s inland to around 50 at the
coast). A downward trend on the winds can be expected on Thursday, but
the mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will probably end up keeping our high
temperatures topping out in an upper 50s to around 60 range. After another
cool night Thursday night (lows ranging from the low to mid 40s north
to the low 50s at the coast), expect a gradual warming trend for the
remainder of this forecast period with highs in the 60s Friday, 70s
Saturday and 80s on Sunday, and most lows in the 50s Saturday and in
the 60s on Sunday. We still need to mention some chances for rain,
beginning on Thursday and continuing periodically through Sunday as
a series of disturbances/shortwaves move across the area. At this
time, rainfall totals look to be on the very light side with almost
all spots getting a tenth of an inch or less (and less could end up
being zero).

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 448 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

IFR/MVFR ceilings will persist through 15Z-16Z before low-level
clouds scatter out and VFR conditions return. Southerly to south-
southwesterly winds prevail throughout the day with occasional
gusts to 20 knots. Winds remain elevated into the evening and
overnight hours which is expected to inhibit the fog potential
tonight. IFR/MVFR ceilings will return though and fill in from
south to north shortly after sunset. Probability for IFR ceilings
are higher along and south of I-10 for both this morning and on
Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

Gradually increasing south winds and building seas can be expected through
Tuesday. Some time this evening or Tuesday, caution flags will likely
be needed and advisories will be possible. Some fog could develop beginning
early this morning and could return nightly until the arrival of the
next cold front midweek. This front should move across the area on Wednesday
with moderate to strong and gusty north to northeast winds and elevated
seas developing in its wake. Thursday through Friday night, expect gradually
weakening northeast to east winds and lowering seas.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 65 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 65 83 67 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 73 63 73 64 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42

[DoctorMu]

DP has been low until this afternoon. Fortunately with the lack of rain and wind, it's not as drippy as it could be.

[DoctorMu]

Frontwise, tomorrow evening and next Monday will bring cooler weather for a few days. By Spring Break, 80s will creep back in after tomorrow.

Today's high was 81°, well under the expected. The sun angle is still low, so it felt pretty good.

[txbear]

Mid 90s in the big country down to Junction. My gosh that’s ridiculous. Bad fires in the panhandle.

[Cromagnum]

Killeen allegedly hit 100 today.

[Ptarmigan]

Feels like February 1996 when it got hot.

[DoctorMu]

Killeen allegedly hit 100 today.

Can confirm 100°F high in Killeen. Then winds switched to the SE from the SW. It became humid and temp sank to 88°F

Those hot Mexican desert winds!

The first mosquito of the season bit me in the calf this evening.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 271136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
536 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 222 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Another mostly cloudy, breezy day with late spring-like
temperatures. Looks like most record highs across inland areas are
in the 86-87F range so doubt we`ll be setting any new ones, but with
the warm start to the day, 80-85F looks entirely likely. Low
cloudiness this morning and some upper Pacific cloud cover should
limit available sunshine.

Upper trof will be tracking eastward across the Plains tonight.
Associated surface frontal boundary will push into the region later
tonight and off the coast by mid morning Wed. Winds look like
they`ll weaken as the front approaches so we`ll probably see some
sea fog development closer to the coast. As far as rain chances
go...despite some 1.2-1.4" PW`s pooling ahead of the front, mid
level ridging and significant low level capping should keep chances
on the very low to nil side.

Highs on Wednesday will be experienced in the morning. Moderate CAA,
breezy winds, and some upper cloudiness should keep things on the
cool side throughout the day. Lows Wednesday night will dip back
closer to seasonal norms in the 48-55F range. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

The last time the City of Houston had a high temperature below
78°F was on February 19th. To cap off meteorological winter on
Thursday (February 29th), we`ll have high temperatures in the
upper 50s to low 60s across all of Southeast Texas...so these
will be our coolest daytime temperatures in 10 days! Overcast
clouds remain in place throughout the day on Thursday with
building moisture as a coastal trough drifts towards the TX Gulf
coast. This is out ahead of an approaching embedded shortwave
moving in from the west that will generate our next chance of rain
late Thursday into Friday morning. PW values surge to 1.0"-1.4"
with the higher end of that range south of I-10. A LLJ also moves
in over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods that`ll add in another
source of lift. Drier air filters back in going into Friday night
as the coastal trough exits to the east. That takes us into a
warming trend with high temperatures rising into the mid 70s on
Friday and into the low 80s over the weekend.

Over the weekend is also when our next weather system takes shape as
an upper level trough drifts across the western CONUS and generates
surface low pressure (lee cyclogenesis) close to the Northern
Plains. Moisture advection is resultingly enhanced on Sunday in the
warm sector with PW values climbing up to 1.4" on Sunday afternoon.
There`ll be enough PVA from approaching shortwaves ahead of and
beneath the main upper level trough to generate some scattered
showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday afternoon. Shower/storm
chances continue into Monday as a cold front is expected to push
through Southeast Texas. PW values surge along the frontal boundary
up to 1.6" (90th percentile: ~1.37"), so there will be potential for
locally heavy rainfall. It`s a bit early to nail down precise timing
of the front, but behind the front surface high pressure looks to at
least briefly build in on Tuesday with cooler and drier air
filtering in as well. I stuck with the NBM for temperatures given
the FROPA timing uncertainty, but that still shows low temperatures
returning back into 40s/50s overnight behind the front.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 535 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

With the exception of coastal sites, MVFR-IFR ceilings should
gradually lift back into VFR territory as the morning progresses.
Breezy ssw winds are anticipated again with gusts above 20kt at
times. Gustiness diminishes this evening, but MVFR-IFR stratus
fills back in overnight in advance of a cold front that will be
moving into the region. Coastal sites may see some reduced
visibilities in association with some sea fog in the vicinity
tonight. The front will push thru CLL/UTS prior to sunrise then
off the coast by mid morning. Fog and low ceilings will lift
behind the front as gusty north winds set in. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Moderate southerly to southwesterly winds will persist through
tonight leading to gradually building seas and an increased risk of
rip currents. Winds and seas in the offshore Gulf waters are
expected to be around 20 knots and 7 feet, so a Small Craft Advisory
will go into effect later this morning through tonight. There will
be a brief window of below advisory conditions, but another Small
Craft Advisory will likely be needed through late Thursday with
moderate to strong northerly/northeasterly winds in the wake of a
cold front. There remains some potential for patchy sea fog until
the front pushes offshore on Wednesday morning, but the elevated
winds and warming water temperatures should keep the fog from
becoming dense. Moderate to strong offshore winds and elevated seas
persisting into Thursday night before gradually diminishing. A
coastal weather system develops on Thursday night and brings the
next chance of showers/storms through Friday. Onshore flow returns
over the weekend out ahead of the next weather system that brings
increasing rain chances Sunday/Monday, and another cold front
some time on Monday.

Batiste

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

North winds gusting to 20-30mph and RH`s bottoming out in the 28-45%
range behind the front on Wednesday will produce some elevated fire
wx conditions. Doesn`t currently appear we`ll reach Red Flag Warning
criteria, though caution is advised. Texas A&M Forest Service
indicates a moderate fire danger rating. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 58 61 48 / 0 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 66 67 49 / 0 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 64 67 54 / 10 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 9 AM CST this morning
through this evening for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
morning for GMZ370-375.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

[djmike]

I dont think I have ever seen a winter abruptly end like this in February. Concerning whats to come for summertime.

[Cpv17]

I dont think I have ever seen a winter abruptly end like this in February. Concerning whats to come for summertime.

I don’t really think there’s any correlation.

[jasons2k]

89 here today and it’s only February.

On a serious note, we need to get prepared for a mostly dry, cap-filled spring. Not just because it’s hot today, but because the way the recent and forecast trends are unfolding. We are drying out fast and the dryness of Northern Mexico & SW Texas is going to feedback into the cap.

[Cpv17]

89 here today and it’s only February.

On a serious note, we need to get prepared for a mostly dry, cap-filled spring. Not just because it’s hot today, but because the way the recent and forecast trends are unfolding. We are drying out fast and the dryness of Northern Mexico & SW Texas is going to feedback into the cap.

It was only 81°F here today. These winds can go kick rocks. Y’all city folk don’t have to deal with it like I do living out in the country out in the open. Crap is annoying. Unfortunately, the next 6 weeks or so will probably have lots of windy days. It’s that time of year.

[jasons2k]

89 here today and it’s only February.

On a serious note, we need to get prepared for a mostly dry, cap-filled spring. Not just because it’s hot today, but because the way the recent and forecast trends are unfolding. We are drying out fast and the dryness of Northern Mexico & SW Texas is going to feedback into the cap.

It was only 81°F here today. These winds can go kick rocks. Y’all city folk don’t have to deal with it like I do living out in the country out in the open. Crap is annoying. Unfortunately, the next 6 weeks or so will probably have lots of windy days. It’s that time of year.

I paid my dues in Lubbock

I hear you though. It’s a pain when working outside.

[Cpv17]

89 here today and it’s only February.

On a serious note, we need to get prepared for a mostly dry, cap-filled spring. Not just because it’s hot today, but because the way the recent and forecast trends are unfolding. We are drying out fast and the dryness of Northern Mexico & SW Texas is going to feedback into the cap.

It was only 81°F here today. These winds can go kick rocks. Y’all city folk don’t have to deal with it like I do living out in the country out in the open. Crap is annoying. Unfortunately, the next 6 weeks or so will probably have lots of windy days. It’s that time of year.

I paid my dues in Lubbock

I hear you though. It’s a pain when working outside.

Yeah man, those winds in Lubbock are flat nuts lol

[davidiowx]

Winds like this also dry everything out much faster. Desert a cometh

The frogs are going nuts lol

[user:null]

Y’all city folk don’t have to deal with it like I do living out in the country out in the open. Crap is annoying. Unfortunately, the next 6 weeks or so will probably have lots of windy days. It’s that time of year.

But Jasons2k is not a "city person", though — he lives in The Woodlands, which would be a suburban municipality just like Katy, Sugar Land, Pearland, League CIty, etc

In contrast, the real urban city is Houston in Inner Loop (inside 610), since it contains the most extensive, pre-war fabric (i.e. high density street grid, rail public transit, etc). But certain areas inside Beltway 8/beyond (notably Gulfton/Hilcroft area, and east axis down to Johnson Space Center) are also ripe for urbanization.

[user:null]

89 here today and it’s only February.

Temps at both IAH and HOU topped out a few degrees cooler — that 89°F would have been just short a monthly record high for both airport stations.

[Cpv17]

Y’all city folk don’t have to deal with it like I do living out in the country out in the open. Crap is annoying. Unfortunately, the next 6 weeks or so will probably have lots of windy days. It’s that time of year.

But Jasons2k is not a "city person", though — he lives in The Woodlands, which would be a suburban municipality just like Katy, Sugar Land, Pearland, League CIty, etc

In contrast, the real urban city is Houston in Inner Loop (inside 610), since it contains the most extensive, pre-war fabric (i.e. high density street grid, rail public transit, etc). But certain areas inside Beltway 8/beyond (notably Gulfton/Hilcroft area, and east axis down to Johnson Space Center) are also ripe for urbanization.

When you’re from a small town like me then you’d understand. People from small towns count the suburban areas as part of the city. Plus the suburbs are blocked from the wind just like anything inside of Beltway 8 or inside of 610 would be, which was my point to begin with.

[Stratton20]

So many acres of land being absolutely obliterated by the wild fires, and we arent even close to summer yet, i really cant blame folks for wanting to move away from texas , precipitation is going to be a big problem in the months ahead, not sure how many more summers I can endure here