February 2024

[Cpv17]

So many acres of land being absolutely obliterated by the wild fires, and we arent even close to summer yet, i really cant blame folks for wanting to move away from texas , precipitation is going to be a big problem in the months ahead, not sure how many more summers I can endure here

More people are moving into Texas than out of Texas and I don’t even think it’s close.

[Stratton20]

Maybe lol, but ive just about had it with summers here, i cant take another 2-3 week stretch of 100+ degree weather and wild fires becoming frequent problems

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 280855
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
255 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Cold front will be sweeping through the region this
morning...College Station area prior to sunrise and off the beaches
during the mid morning hours. High temps will be observed right
before the frontal passage, followed by windy and colder conditions
in its wake. Threw in a wind advisory for areas along and west of I-
45 and also the coastal counties for 20-30mph speeds with higher
gusts at times. Winds will begin to taper off after sunset. Look for
overnight lows closer to seasonable norms.

Surface high pressure in the Plains behind this front slides
eastward toward the Tennessee Valley tonight. A coastal trof will
begin developing Thursday off the coast. Winds a bit further up will
begin veering around to a more se/s direction as the day progresses
and start transporting some llvl Gulf moisture back into the region.
PW`s recover from <1" early in the day back up to closer to 1.2"
(higher at the coast) by sunset. A steady stream of weak impulses in
the mid/upper flow will be making their way across the region
(moreso northern CWA). So...the combination of these disturbances,
coastal trof and increased moisture should lead to some increasing
chances of shra development across the region heading into the Thurs
afternoon and night. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

For the first day of Meteorological Spring (March 1), we`ll be
treated with a chance of scattered showers/storms as a coastal
trough continues to push eastward...oh and seasonal daytime
temperatures with highs around 70°F. The best chances for rain on
Friday will be during the morning south of I-10 as that`s where the
greatest moisture availability will be set up. By Friday afternoon,
inland rain chances are coming to an end as drier air is pulled in
from the north. This sets us up for a pleasant start to the
weekend...but also a warming trend as well. High temperatures on
Saturday will top out in the upper 70s (isolated spots reaching
80°F) then solidly in the low 80s on Sunday. Overnight temperatures
see a similar climb as we go from lows in the 50s on Friday night to
the low 60s on Saturday night and mid to upper 60s on Sunday night.
This is due to the return of onshore flow, which does get some
enhancement over the weekend as our next upper level disturbance
approaches.

On late Saturday/Sunday, an upper level trough drifts through the
Pacific Northwest towards the Northern Plains and generates surface
low pressure. As the surface low develops and drifts eastward
towards the Upper Midwest, this helps to surge PW values up to 1.1"-
1.2" (75th percentile: ~1.13") by Sunday afternoon. That`s important
to note because during this time frame, we`ll be in the left exit
region of the subtropical jet (upper level divergence) along with
some embedded shortwaves moving through. As a result, we could see
some isolated to scattered showers/storms develop on Sunday
afternoon, but Monday night into Tuesday will be our best chances
for that as a cold front approaches. There is quite a bit of
uncertainty with what happens next week in relation to the cold
front and maybe even the development of a surface low near the Gulf
Coast. As of the 00Z deterministic models, only the GFS pushes the
front cleanly through with a deeper upper level trough. The ECMWF
and Canadian keep the front to our north and eventually develop a
surface low near us and drifting eastward. Given the uncertainty, I
stuck close to NBM for PoPs and temperatures, which as of right now
peaks the rain chances on Monday night/Tuesday morning and keeps
temperatures a bit above normal (upper 70s).

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

IFR & MVFR ceilings and fog should quickly trend back into VFR
territory this morning after a frontal passage. There will still be
some high level Pacific cloudiness streaming overhead, but main
aviation hazard from mid-morning onward will be gusty north winds in
the 18-30kt range. Speeds begin to taper off after sunset. Continued
VFR overnight, though we should see some 2500-5000 ft ceilings
return to the coast toward sunrise...then into the metro area by mid-
late morning Thurs. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Patchy fog has begun to develop in the bays and coastal waters as
winds continue to diminish early this morning. This fog will remain
in place until the passage of a cold front later this morning, so a
Marine Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect. Wave heights in the
farshore Gulf waters remain around 7 feet, so the Small Craft
Advisory will continue till 3am CST but there is potential for it to
be extended a couple more hours. Once the cold front pushes offshore
during the late morning hours, moderate to strong northerly winds
will follow in its wake leading to another Small Craft Advisory
that`ll persist into Thursday night. Seas will subsequently build to
7-8 feet through Thursday as well before winds and seas begin to
subside. There is potential for seas to remain elevated into late
Thursday with an extended easterly fetch developing. A coastal
weather system develops on Thursday night and brings the next chance
of showers/storms through Friday. Onshore flow returns over the
weekend out ahead of the next weather system that brings another
round of showers/storms late Sunday into Monday.

Batiste

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated today with north
winds 20-30mph and RH`s bottoming out in the 28-40% range. Forecast
RH`s are slightly below Red Flag Warning criteria, but we`ll monitor
trends. The Texas A&M Forest Service continues to show a moderate
fire danger rating across a good portion of the area. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 46 54 46 / 0 10 30 50
Houston (IAH) 70 48 57 48 / 10 10 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 69 53 59 54 / 10 0 20 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for TXZ176-177-195>199-210>214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338-
436>439.

High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM CST this morning for
TXZ436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335-350-355.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CST Thursday for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST early this morning for
GMZ370-375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until noon CST today for
GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste

[user:null]

When you’re from a small town like me then you’d understand. People from small towns count the suburban areas as part of the city.

Fair enough. Are you from Wharton or El Campo? Both are pretty small towns, but El Campo is a good bit bigger as it's at least over 10,000 in population.

That said, as far is this region is concerned, I mainly view Houston and Galveston as "principal cities": other stuff is either suburbs/secondary cities, or smaller towns/rural.

Honestly, urban clusters have varying definitions due to nuances of employment/social linkages. However, in terms of "singular built-up unit" (city + respective suburbs), the metric called "urban area" represents an accurate structure:

• "City proper" (aka municipal boundary) is the narrowest definition ... but it can be quite arbitrary as city limits can be differing sizes due to annexations, consolidations, and other such municipal practices that depend on various nuances (see: Houston's 600+ sq miles versus San Francisco's 47 sq miles)
  .
• "Metro area" is defined by the US government, and is broader than "urban area" ... but the problem is that the "broadness" as defined in terms of entire counties ... and not every square inch of the counties is populated, let alone integrates with the core city. For instance, the whole Chambers county is grouped with "Greater Houston Metro Area" ... but it's not very populated outside of bits adjacent to Baytown, the rest is all wildnerness/marshland. Similar situation with Brazoria county with Pearland versus the rest of the boonies.
  .
• "Combined-statistical area" is the broadest definition as covered by the US government. It also includes entire counties, and covers adjacent metropolitan and micropolitan areas. In the context of this region, places like College Station, El Campo, and Huntsville are actually counted as "micro areas" in addition to the large " Greater Houston Metro Area". The territory covered is similar to the scope of the HGX NWS office coverage.
  .
• A possible broadest definition would be "megapolis/megaregion". This is basically a group of metropolitan areas perceived as one unit given similarities in region, transport, etc so on. However, it does not have its own government (OMB) definition (hence why I mentioned "possible). An example of megaregion would be "BosWash corridor" in reference to Boston, NYC, Philly, and DC" or "Texas Triangle" in reference to Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston.

In other words, from narrowest to broadest:

• city proper
• urban area
• metro area
• combined-statistical area
• megapolis/megaregion

https://www.jetpunk.com/users/wildkratt ... urban-area

[user:null]

Plus the suburbs are blocked from the wind just like anything inside of Beltway 8 or inside of 610 would be, which was my point to begin with.

It would be interesting to see the impact that vegetation (especially tree coverage) has on the perceived windiness. For instance, the comparison of your Wharton/El Campo location to, say, Cut and Shoot (as well as other similar small towns in the nearby Piney Woods forested areas of Greater Houston).

[Cromagnum]

All these clouds and humidity and not a drop of rain. I need my fertilizer to soak in and don't want to start dragging the hose around already.

[Cpv17]

All these clouds and humidity and not a drop of rain. I need my fertilizer to soak in and don't want to start dragging the hose around already.

The humidity is pretty much gone now that the front has passed. Tomorrow is a chance for rain. Don’t expect much though.

[user:null]

So many acres of land being absolutely obliterated by the wild fires, and we arent even close to summer yet, i really cant blame folks for wanting to move away from texas , precipitation is going to be a big problem in the months ahead, not sure how many more summers I can endure here

Maybe lol, but ive just about had it with summers here, i cant take another 2-3 week stretch of 100+ degree weather and wild fires becoming frequent problems

Yeah, prolonged hot droughts/dry periods are just as useless to me as winter freezes (if not more so).

Cpv17 posted forecasts in the other threads that show wetter solutions for the upcoming Texas summer. Really hoping that verifies: if nothing else, I want to see the exact mechanisms, teleconnections, phases, etc whatever that determines whether we have nicer summers with more frequent storms versus the problematic back-to-back 100°F+ temps that you mention.

[Stratton20]

user:null i unfortunately think the only way we are going to see widespread rain this summer is via the tropics, and thats looking like a very active season potentially, i hate the blast furnace weather, but also hoping this isnt the year that we get slammed by a strong hurricane either

[Cpv17]

user:null i unfortunately think the only way we are going to see widespread rain this summer is via the tropics, and thats looking like a very active season potentially, i hate the blast furnace weather, but also hoping this isnt the year that we get slammed by a strong hurricane either

Hopefully if we get hit by anything it’s nothing more than a cat 2 and we get widespread rain from it but no major flooding. Wishful thinking probably lol

[Ptarmigan]

When you’re from a small town like me then you’d understand. People from small towns count the suburban areas as part of the city.

Fair enough. Are you from Wharton or El Campo? Both are pretty small towns, but El Campo is a good bit bigger as it's at least over 10,000 in population.

That said, as far is this region is concerned, I mainly view Houston and Galveston as "principal cities": other stuff is either suburbs/secondary cities, or smaller towns/rural.

Honestly, urban clusters have varying definitions due to nuances of employment/social linkages. However, in terms of "singular built-up unit" (city + respective suburbs), the metric called "urban area" represents an accurate structure:

• "City proper" (aka municipal boundary) is the narrowest definition ... but it can be quite arbitrary as city limits can be differing sizes due to annexations, consolidations, and other such municipal practices that depend on various nuances (see: Houston's 600+ sq miles versus San Francisco's 47 sq miles)
  .
• "Metro area" is defined by the US government, and is broader than "urban area" ... but the problem is that the "broadness" as defined in terms of entire counties ... and not every square inch of the counties is populated, let alone integrates with the core city. For instance, the whole Chambers county is grouped with "Greater Houston Metro Area" ... but it's not very populated outside of bits adjacent to Baytown, the rest is all wildnerness/marshland. Similar situation with Brazoria county with Pearland versus the rest of the boonies.
  .
• "Combined-statistical area" is the broadest definition as covered by the US government. It also includes entire counties, and covers adjacent metropolitan and micropolitan areas. In the context of this region, places like College Station, El Campo, and Huntsville are actually counted as "micro areas" in addition to the large " Greater Houston Metro Area". The territory covered is similar to the scope of the HGX NWS office coverage.
  .
• A possible broadest definition would be "megapolis/megaregion". This is basically a group of metropolitan areas perceived as one unit given similarities in region, transport, etc so on. However, it does not have its own government (OMB) definition (hence why I mentioned "possible). An example of megaregion would be "BosWash corridor" in reference to Boston, NYC, Philly, and DC" or "Texas Triangle" in reference to Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston.

In other words, from narrowest to broadest:

• city proper
• urban area
• metro area
• combined-statistical area
• megapolis/megaregion

https://www.jetpunk.com/users/wildkratt ... urban-area

There is also conurbation.
https://www.oxfordreference.com/display ... 3095635956

It is when 2 or more separate cities grow together to form metropolitan region or megalopolis. Think New York City area.

[Ptarmigan]

It is like all the rain in January was used up for winter.

[jasons2k]

Headline on SCW is “Today may be our final day in the 50s for the next eight months”

Proper way to end February and the meteorological winter.

https://spacecityweather.com/today-may- ... ht-months/

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 290936
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
336 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

Winds just above the surface are transitioning to a more southerly
direction...and will continue to do so today. This, and some coastal
troffing setting up off the coast, will transport increasing low
level Gulf moisture into the region. Further aloft, there`s a steady
stream of impulses riding across the area in the sw flow in advance
of an ewd moving trof currently extending along the NM/AZ border.

Currently low levels are a bit too dry for precip to reach the
surface, but that should be changing this afternoon and evening as
they become increasingly saturated. Expecting to see shower
development increase in areal coverage during this time
period...eventually tapering off after midnight as the upper trof
passes to our ene and moisture axis is shunted further e/se.

As far as temps go, lack of sunshine today should limit much in the
way of a warm-up and readings should top out in the 50s. Decreasing
cloud cover and a drier column will allow temps to climb closer to
the 70 degree mark Friday. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

In spite of temperatures being ~10°F above normal, the weekend looks
to be overall pleasant! Onshore flow and southwesterly to southerly
flow aloft remain in place over the weekend and provide the synoptic
support for warmer than normal temperatures. Expect high
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s with low temperatures in
the upper 50s/low 60s on Saturday night and the low to mid 60s on
Sunday night. Moisture advection gets a bit of a bump on Sunday as
surface low pressure develops near the Northern Plains in response
to an upper level trough drifting eastward from the Pacific
Northwest. This is what`s going to bring us our next chance of
showers/storms early next week. The parent surface low develops just
west of the Dakotas on Saturday afternoon, and that`ll lead to an
increase in moisture advection within the warm sector going into
Sunday. PW values increase to 1.0"-1.2" by Sunday afternoon and 1.4"-
1.6" by Monday afternoon. A jet streak associated with the
subtropical jet approaches from northern Mexico into southern Texas
which places us in the left exit region (upper level divergence)
on late Sunday. On top of that, there will be some PVA from
passing shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft...but there will be
a capping inversion in place that may limit us from seeing an
early start to showers. However, I wouldn`t be entirely surprised
if we see a few isolated showers on Sunday afternoon.

Monday night into Tuesday is still trending towards being our best
chances for showers/storms in the long term period...but PoPs extend
beyond that! When I wrote last night`s AFD, it appeared that a
cold front could`ve pushed cleanly through late Monday
night/Tuesday morning. The general trend from the latest
deterministic model run (00Z/Feb 29) show the front stalling out
somewhere around Southeast TX on Tuesday...each model has a
different placement for the stopping point of the front. This is
because the upper level trough providing the push is expected to
remain further north than previously anticipated while the parent
surface low drifts northeastward into eastern Canada.

Things get a bit tricky on Tuesday as another surface low develops
along that quasi-stationary frontal boundary somewhere around the
ARKLATEX. This pushes the bulk of the heavier rain to our east by
late Tuesday. However, moisture continues to linger around and with
additional shortwaves passing through, that`ll keep our rain chances
elevated through midweek. Going into the end of the long term
period, there is fairly good consensus on a shortwave trough
approaching from the southwest CONUS into the Four Corners region
and generating a surface low in the Southern Plains, so there`s a
decent chance that rain chances will extend into the end of the
work week. With ALL of that in mind (especially the lower
probabilities of an early week FROPA), high temperatures are
expected to remain in the upper 70s to low 80s and low
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s into midweek. Even the
lower quartiles of the NBM for high temperatures is in the mid 70s
and most of the GFS/ECMWF ensembles reflect max temperatures in
at least the mid 70s, so it appears that the above normal
temperatures will be with us for quite a while as we March towards
spring (pun very much intended).

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

VFR ceilings will transition downward into the 2000-3500ft range
from south-to-north this morning into the afternoon as low level
moisture flows back into the region. Combination of this moisture
and a series of upper disturbances moving overhead should eventually
lead to increasing shower development in the afternoon and evening
hours. Probably see best coverage in two places...one along/north of
the US59-I69 corridor...and another offshore. Favored time period
will generally be centered in the 21-06z timeframe. Ceilings will
likely continue falling into the IFR territory north of the metro
area, and along the immediate coast, overnight. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the bays and Gulf
waters today due to moderate northeasterly winds prevailing
following the passage of a cold front on Wednesday morning. Wind
speeds will drop below the advisory threshold later this morning in
the bays, so they`ll transition from an advisory to caution flags at
6am CST. The advisory for the Gulf waters extends through Thursday
night, but may need to be extended for the farshore Gulf waters due
to seas remaining elevated into early Friday morning. Winds and seas
gradually subside late Thursday night/early Friday morning.
Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop Thursday
afternoon into early Friday as a disturbance pushes through the
region. Onshore flow returns over the weekend out ahead of the next
weather system that brings another round of showers/storms Monday
night into Tuesday.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 52 45 69 52 / 50 60 0 0
Houston (IAH) 56 47 70 52 / 40 40 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 60 52 63 58 / 30 30 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355-
370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste

[Cromagnum]

Not a drop at my house since the very beginning of February. Here we go again with the bullshit weather pattern we always get stuck in.

[Stratton20]

Cromagnum unfortunately the misery has only just begun, the trends are not you’re friend if you want to see any rain the next several weeks, it looks ugly

[user:null]

The saving grace is that temps in March usually aren't all that hot — so vegetative stress would be low even if prolonged dryness were to verify for the month.

But yes, if rains don't get cranking come April, and especially May, then big trouble happens ... unless the wetter summer forecasts verify.

[DoctorMu]

The saving grace is that temps in March usually aren't all that hot — so vegetative stress would be low even if prolonged dryness were to verify for the month.

But yes, if rains don't get cranking come April, and especially May, then big trouble happens ... unless the wetter summer forecasts verify.

I hope this year is the exception. We've been seeing warmer Falls over the last 33 years, but last year was more normal. We've also been seeing drier Springs, with again last year being an exception...until that mid June flip to blazing hot.

We need a cooler and wetter spring.

The cool air has overperformed yesterday and today.

After today, RIP Winter 2023-2024.

[Ptarmigan]

Happy Leap Day! The meteorological winter is over tomorrow.

[Thundersleet]

The Meteorological Winter may be done, but the Astronomical Winter still continues until the 19th at 11:09 p.m. if my memory/research serves me well.