000
FXUS64 KHGX 220952
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024
...New CLIMATE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 142 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024
Today will be a battle between WAA and cloud cover. LL flow will
become more SW today ahead of an approaching cold front. WAA will
be particularly robust aloft (950-850 mb). There is pretty good
agreement among the guidance that temps in the 950 to 850 mb
layer will approach, and potentially surpass, 20C today. The
question is, how much mixing will be limited by LL clouds? Also
important will be the duration of this cloud cover. This has
significant implications on our afternoon high temperatures today.
Models like the NAM show a full scale decoupling from WAA aloft,
keeping afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s. This seems highly
unrealistic. But much of the global guidance is only a little
warmer in the low/mid 70s. For our forecast, we continue to lean
towards temperatures overperforming once again today, using a
blend of MOS and 75th percentile NBM. This yields afternoon high
temperatures ranging from the low/mid 80s across the Brazos Valley
to around 80 in Houston and low/mid 70s at the coast. Increased
coupling could boost temperatures several degrees warmer than
forecast while a more resilient decoupling could keep temps
several degrees cooler. It`s usually a better bet to go warmer in
these pre-FROPA WAA scenarios which is why we are forecasting
temps to be on the toasty side. Couldn`t rule out a rogue shower
or sprinkle today. But capping due to the aforementioned WAA aloft
will keep any shower shallow and isolated.
The front pushes through tonight with falling dew points and
temperatures in its wake. Overnight lows are expected to fall
mostly in the 50s. Friday is looking very nice with sunshine,
a gusty northwest breeze, and afternoon temperatures in the 70s.
Drier air and clear skies will allow temps to fall quickly Friday
night, with most areas away from the coast and outside the core
of the urban heat island falling into the 40s (low 50s in the
urban core and on the coast).
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 142 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024
Surface high pressure over the area on Saturday will move eastward
and out into the Gulf on Saturday night and Sunday. The weekend will
be quiet with high temperatures both Saturday and Sunday in the 70s
(could get close to 80 on Sunday) while lows Saturday night in the
40s/50s warm into the 50s/60s Sunday night. With the high off to our
east, south winds come back to the area with elevated/gusty
conditions on Sunday under a tightening pressure gradient. These
winds/gusts persist into Monday and Tuesday resulting in a
continuing warming trend (highs on Monday and Tuesday in the low to
mid 80s and lows in the 60s). Southwest to west winds develop on
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front, and if the timing of the
front holds off until late in the day we could see highs well into
the 80s. At this time, do not see much rain with this next system/
front as it moves across the area late Wednesday into Wednesday
night. This front will cool the area back down closer to normal
temperatures on Thursday (lows in the 50s and highs in the 60s).
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024
Breezy southerly winds should continue overnight as MVFR CIGS fill
in across SE Texas through the early morning hours of Thursday.
CIGS begin to lift after sunrise with VFR conditions returning
during the afternoon. A dry cold front should push across the
region Thursday night with light to moderate northerly winds
developing in its wake.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 142 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024
Winds will weaken somewhat and become more southwesterly today.
Despite lower winds, Small Craft Advisory level seas could linger
through midday offshore (20-60 NM from the coast). A weak cold
front will push offshore tonight. It is worth mentioning that some
model guidance suggest there could be a brief period of sea fog
immediately ahead of the front this evening. For now, we have left
fog out of the forecast due to the anticipated unfavorable
southwest winds. That being said, we will monitor the fog threat
closely. A period of moderate to strong north to north- northwest
winds is expected on Friday behind a cold front. Winds could
briefly reach Small Craft levels offshore Friday morning with
caution flags likely. Winds quickly shift back to an onshore flow
regime over the weekend. Gradually increasing onshore flow and
building seas are expected early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024
Here is some February rainfall information for our five major
climate sites.
At CLL, February`s rain total (thru the 21st) is 3.08 inches. Normal
rainfall for the entire month is 2.90 inches.
At IAH, February`s rain total (thru the 21st) is 1.90 inches. Normal
rainfall for the entire month is 2.97 inches.
At HOU, February`s rain total (thru the 21st) is 1.84 inches. Normal
rainfall for the entire month is 2.85 inches.
At GLS, February`s rain total (thru the 21st) is 2.85 inches. Normal
rainfall for the entire month is 2.90 inches.
At PSX, February`s rain total (thru the 21st) is 2.55 inches. Normal
rainfall for the entire month is 1.89 inches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 52 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 56 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 59 69 55 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
morning for GMZ330-335-350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Self
February 2024
Boring-est month ever. February and no winter. Wow.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
An unexpected front crawled through. Looks like some lower DPs this weekend. Our DP went from 62°F to 39°F. That's a real shame. 
We've had so much rain this year in CLL and the weeds went nuts. Dry air is OK by me. There's a warm-up again early next week then back to seasonable later in the week.
GFS has below normal temps at the end of the month and into early March. CMC has a potential for frost next Friday. ICON is on board.
We've had so much rain this year in CLL and the weeds went nuts. Dry air is OK by me. There's a warm-up again early next week then back to seasonable later in the week.
GFS has below normal temps at the end of the month and into early March. CMC has a potential for frost next Friday. ICON is on board.
The weather is absolutely perfect out there today!! Put today on repeat for a solid week lol
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 would be better if it wasnt 80, disgusting lol
80 degrees and humid. Disgusting for February.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Pas_Bon no kidding, it is going to suck with La nina returning, im not sure i can take another summer here with endless days above 100
Feels fantastic to me. Shorts and t shirt weather with lower humidity. Perfect day for me.
I'm from Crosby originally, it's just as I've gotten older I've become so much less tolerant of the heat.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 261048
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
448 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 223 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024
Did y`all know that there`s a "For Pete`s Sake" Day? Me either...but
the timing couldn`t be any better since today`s high temperatures
will likely make ya say "Oh for Pete`s sake!" Before we get to the
abnormally warm temperatures though, we`ll likely have some patchy
fog to deal with in some spots. Southerly winds remain around 10 mph
early this morning, but model guidance still indicates the potential
for patchy fog mainly south of I-10 and west of I-45. Patchy fog for
some, but humid for all as you step out the door this morning as our
overnight temperatures (low to mid 60s) are very close to our normal
high temperature (upper 60s). Southwest flow aloft at 850mb
continues to advect very warm temperatures with 850mb temperatures
reaching the 19-22°C range this afternoon (99th to MAX percentile).
Winds at the surface will be out of the southwest as well along with
PW values mainly in the 0.8"-1.0" range, which is a bit on the drier
side. Cloud cover scatters out enough (especially north of I-10) for
plenty of solar radiation to reach the surface this afternoon. Long
story short...it`s gon` be warm! Temperatures continue to outperform
model guidance by a couple of degrees, so I nudged up highs in the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods to reflect some mid 80s. Elsewhere, expect
highs to range from the upper 70s to low 80s. That`s ~10-15°F above
normal...but hey it could be worse...Dallas/Fort Worth is expected
to be in the 90s today!
Going into this evening, a 35-45 kt LLJ moves in as surface low
pressure drifts eastward from the Northern Plains towards the Upper
Midwest and tightens the pressure gradient. Winds at the surface
transition to southerly, which allows for low-level clouds to fill
back in. The elevated winds overnight are likely to inhibit fog
potential. Temperatures tonight remain mild though with widespread
lows in the mid 60s. The LLJ lingers into Tuesday, so expect some
moderate winds especially in the late morning to afternoon hours
with sustained winds around 15-20 mph and higher gusts especially
south of I-10. That combined with lingering cloud cover throughout
the day as moisture increases ahead of a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary that stalls out to our northwest in the afternoon, and
we`ll see temperatures a degree or so "cooler" than Monday`s. That`s
in spite of 850mb temperatures remaining in their 99th to MAX
percentile. Even though PW values surge up to 1.0"-1.3" on Tuesday
afternoon (90th percentile: ~1.37"), a VERY robust capping inversion
aloft plus the lack of a sufficient lifting mechanism keeps rain
chances slim to none.
An upper level trough transiting through the Four Corners region and
into the Great Plains provides the push needed for the stalled out
frontal boundary to begin to push towards Southeast Texas going into
late Tuesday night. As you can imagine, FROPA timing has quite the
impact on the low temperature forecast. The front should make it
into the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods right around sunrise early
Wednesday morning, so their lows will likely be in the upper 50s.
Elsewhere, out ahead of the front, expect lows to range from the low
to upper 60s. See the long term discussion below for more post-FROPA
details...
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 223 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024
Our next cold front will be moving across the area on Wednesday. Latest
available models early this morning appear to be on target in bringing
the front and associated northwest to north wind shift into our northern
counties around 6 AM, and they race the boundary off the coast and into
our coastal waters before noon. High temperatures for the day could
end up in the morning ahead of the front, and have tried to reflect
this possibility in our forecast. Highs in the morning in the 60s/70s
will for the most part be on a downward trend as the day progresses.
The breezy/gusty north winds behind the front will persist into Wednesday
night (low temperatures mostly in the 40s inland to around 50 at the
coast). A downward trend on the winds can be expected on Thursday, but
the mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will probably end up keeping our high
temperatures topping out in an upper 50s to around 60 range. After another
cool night Thursday night (lows ranging from the low to mid 40s north
to the low 50s at the coast), expect a gradual warming trend for the
remainder of this forecast period with highs in the 60s Friday, 70s
Saturday and 80s on Sunday, and most lows in the 50s Saturday and in
the 60s on Sunday. We still need to mention some chances for rain,
beginning on Thursday and continuing periodically through Sunday as
a series of disturbances/shortwaves move across the area. At this
time, rainfall totals look to be on the very light side with almost
all spots getting a tenth of an inch or less (and less could end up
being zero).
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 448 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024
IFR/MVFR ceilings will persist through 15Z-16Z before low-level
clouds scatter out and VFR conditions return. Southerly to south-
southwesterly winds prevail throughout the day with occasional
gusts to 20 knots. Winds remain elevated into the evening and
overnight hours which is expected to inhibit the fog potential
tonight. IFR/MVFR ceilings will return though and fill in from
south to north shortly after sunset. Probability for IFR ceilings
are higher along and south of I-10 for both this morning and on
Monday night/Tuesday morning.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024
Gradually increasing south winds and building seas can be expected through
Tuesday. Some time this evening or Tuesday, caution flags will likely
be needed and advisories will be possible. Some fog could develop beginning
early this morning and could return nightly until the arrival of the
next cold front midweek. This front should move across the area on Wednesday
with moderate to strong and gusty north to northeast winds and elevated
seas developing in its wake. Thursday through Friday night, expect gradually
weakening northeast to east winds and lowering seas.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 65 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 65 83 67 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 73 63 73 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42
FXUS64 KHGX 261048
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
448 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 223 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024
Did y`all know that there`s a "For Pete`s Sake" Day? Me either...but
the timing couldn`t be any better since today`s high temperatures
will likely make ya say "Oh for Pete`s sake!" Before we get to the
abnormally warm temperatures though, we`ll likely have some patchy
fog to deal with in some spots. Southerly winds remain around 10 mph
early this morning, but model guidance still indicates the potential
for patchy fog mainly south of I-10 and west of I-45. Patchy fog for
some, but humid for all as you step out the door this morning as our
overnight temperatures (low to mid 60s) are very close to our normal
high temperature (upper 60s). Southwest flow aloft at 850mb
continues to advect very warm temperatures with 850mb temperatures
reaching the 19-22°C range this afternoon (99th to MAX percentile).
Winds at the surface will be out of the southwest as well along with
PW values mainly in the 0.8"-1.0" range, which is a bit on the drier
side. Cloud cover scatters out enough (especially north of I-10) for
plenty of solar radiation to reach the surface this afternoon. Long
story short...it`s gon` be warm! Temperatures continue to outperform
model guidance by a couple of degrees, so I nudged up highs in the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods to reflect some mid 80s. Elsewhere, expect
highs to range from the upper 70s to low 80s. That`s ~10-15°F above
normal...but hey it could be worse...Dallas/Fort Worth is expected
to be in the 90s today!
Going into this evening, a 35-45 kt LLJ moves in as surface low
pressure drifts eastward from the Northern Plains towards the Upper
Midwest and tightens the pressure gradient. Winds at the surface
transition to southerly, which allows for low-level clouds to fill
back in. The elevated winds overnight are likely to inhibit fog
potential. Temperatures tonight remain mild though with widespread
lows in the mid 60s. The LLJ lingers into Tuesday, so expect some
moderate winds especially in the late morning to afternoon hours
with sustained winds around 15-20 mph and higher gusts especially
south of I-10. That combined with lingering cloud cover throughout
the day as moisture increases ahead of a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary that stalls out to our northwest in the afternoon, and
we`ll see temperatures a degree or so "cooler" than Monday`s. That`s
in spite of 850mb temperatures remaining in their 99th to MAX
percentile. Even though PW values surge up to 1.0"-1.3" on Tuesday
afternoon (90th percentile: ~1.37"), a VERY robust capping inversion
aloft plus the lack of a sufficient lifting mechanism keeps rain
chances slim to none.
An upper level trough transiting through the Four Corners region and
into the Great Plains provides the push needed for the stalled out
frontal boundary to begin to push towards Southeast Texas going into
late Tuesday night. As you can imagine, FROPA timing has quite the
impact on the low temperature forecast. The front should make it
into the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods right around sunrise early
Wednesday morning, so their lows will likely be in the upper 50s.
Elsewhere, out ahead of the front, expect lows to range from the low
to upper 60s. See the long term discussion below for more post-FROPA
details...
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 223 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024
Our next cold front will be moving across the area on Wednesday. Latest
available models early this morning appear to be on target in bringing
the front and associated northwest to north wind shift into our northern
counties around 6 AM, and they race the boundary off the coast and into
our coastal waters before noon. High temperatures for the day could
end up in the morning ahead of the front, and have tried to reflect
this possibility in our forecast. Highs in the morning in the 60s/70s
will for the most part be on a downward trend as the day progresses.
The breezy/gusty north winds behind the front will persist into Wednesday
night (low temperatures mostly in the 40s inland to around 50 at the
coast). A downward trend on the winds can be expected on Thursday, but
the mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will probably end up keeping our high
temperatures topping out in an upper 50s to around 60 range. After another
cool night Thursday night (lows ranging from the low to mid 40s north
to the low 50s at the coast), expect a gradual warming trend for the
remainder of this forecast period with highs in the 60s Friday, 70s
Saturday and 80s on Sunday, and most lows in the 50s Saturday and in
the 60s on Sunday. We still need to mention some chances for rain,
beginning on Thursday and continuing periodically through Sunday as
a series of disturbances/shortwaves move across the area. At this
time, rainfall totals look to be on the very light side with almost
all spots getting a tenth of an inch or less (and less could end up
being zero).
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 448 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024
IFR/MVFR ceilings will persist through 15Z-16Z before low-level
clouds scatter out and VFR conditions return. Southerly to south-
southwesterly winds prevail throughout the day with occasional
gusts to 20 knots. Winds remain elevated into the evening and
overnight hours which is expected to inhibit the fog potential
tonight. IFR/MVFR ceilings will return though and fill in from
south to north shortly after sunset. Probability for IFR ceilings
are higher along and south of I-10 for both this morning and on
Monday night/Tuesday morning.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024
Gradually increasing south winds and building seas can be expected through
Tuesday. Some time this evening or Tuesday, caution flags will likely
be needed and advisories will be possible. Some fog could develop beginning
early this morning and could return nightly until the arrival of the
next cold front midweek. This front should move across the area on Wednesday
with moderate to strong and gusty north to northeast winds and elevated
seas developing in its wake. Thursday through Friday night, expect gradually
weakening northeast to east winds and lowering seas.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 65 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 65 83 67 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 73 63 73 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42
DP has been low until this afternoon. Fortunately with the lack of rain and wind, it's not as drippy as it could be.
Frontwise, tomorrow evening and next Monday will bring cooler weather for a few days. By Spring Break, 80s will creep back in after tomorrow.
Today's high was 81°, well under the expected. The sun angle is still low, so it felt pretty good.
Today's high was 81°, well under the expected. The sun angle is still low, so it felt pretty good.
Mid 90s in the big country down to Junction. My gosh that’s ridiculous. Bad fires in the panhandle.
Killeen allegedly hit 100 today.
Feels like February 1996 when it got hot.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 271136
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
536 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 222 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Another mostly cloudy, breezy day with late spring-like
temperatures. Looks like most record highs across inland areas are
in the 86-87F range so doubt we`ll be setting any new ones, but with
the warm start to the day, 80-85F looks entirely likely. Low
cloudiness this morning and some upper Pacific cloud cover should
limit available sunshine.
Upper trof will be tracking eastward across the Plains tonight.
Associated surface frontal boundary will push into the region later
tonight and off the coast by mid morning Wed. Winds look like
they`ll weaken as the front approaches so we`ll probably see some
sea fog development closer to the coast. As far as rain chances
go...despite some 1.2-1.4" PW`s pooling ahead of the front, mid
level ridging and significant low level capping should keep chances
on the very low to nil side.
Highs on Wednesday will be experienced in the morning. Moderate CAA,
breezy winds, and some upper cloudiness should keep things on the
cool side throughout the day. Lows Wednesday night will dip back
closer to seasonal norms in the 48-55F range. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
The last time the City of Houston had a high temperature below
78°F was on February 19th. To cap off meteorological winter on
Thursday (February 29th), we`ll have high temperatures in the
upper 50s to low 60s across all of Southeast Texas...so these
will be our coolest daytime temperatures in 10 days! Overcast
clouds remain in place throughout the day on Thursday with
building moisture as a coastal trough drifts towards the TX Gulf
coast. This is out ahead of an approaching embedded shortwave
moving in from the west that will generate our next chance of rain
late Thursday into Friday morning. PW values surge to 1.0"-1.4"
with the higher end of that range south of I-10. A LLJ also moves
in over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods that`ll add in another
source of lift. Drier air filters back in going into Friday night
as the coastal trough exits to the east. That takes us into a
warming trend with high temperatures rising into the mid 70s on
Friday and into the low 80s over the weekend.
Over the weekend is also when our next weather system takes shape as
an upper level trough drifts across the western CONUS and generates
surface low pressure (lee cyclogenesis) close to the Northern
Plains. Moisture advection is resultingly enhanced on Sunday in the
warm sector with PW values climbing up to 1.4" on Sunday afternoon.
There`ll be enough PVA from approaching shortwaves ahead of and
beneath the main upper level trough to generate some scattered
showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday afternoon. Shower/storm
chances continue into Monday as a cold front is expected to push
through Southeast Texas. PW values surge along the frontal boundary
up to 1.6" (90th percentile: ~1.37"), so there will be potential for
locally heavy rainfall. It`s a bit early to nail down precise timing
of the front, but behind the front surface high pressure looks to at
least briefly build in on Tuesday with cooler and drier air
filtering in as well. I stuck with the NBM for temperatures given
the FROPA timing uncertainty, but that still shows low temperatures
returning back into 40s/50s overnight behind the front.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 535 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
With the exception of coastal sites, MVFR-IFR ceilings should
gradually lift back into VFR territory as the morning progresses.
Breezy ssw winds are anticipated again with gusts above 20kt at
times. Gustiness diminishes this evening, but MVFR-IFR stratus
fills back in overnight in advance of a cold front that will be
moving into the region. Coastal sites may see some reduced
visibilities in association with some sea fog in the vicinity
tonight. The front will push thru CLL/UTS prior to sunrise then
off the coast by mid morning. Fog and low ceilings will lift
behind the front as gusty north winds set in. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Moderate southerly to southwesterly winds will persist through
tonight leading to gradually building seas and an increased risk of
rip currents. Winds and seas in the offshore Gulf waters are
expected to be around 20 knots and 7 feet, so a Small Craft Advisory
will go into effect later this morning through tonight. There will
be a brief window of below advisory conditions, but another Small
Craft Advisory will likely be needed through late Thursday with
moderate to strong northerly/northeasterly winds in the wake of a
cold front. There remains some potential for patchy sea fog until
the front pushes offshore on Wednesday morning, but the elevated
winds and warming water temperatures should keep the fog from
becoming dense. Moderate to strong offshore winds and elevated seas
persisting into Thursday night before gradually diminishing. A
coastal weather system develops on Thursday night and brings the
next chance of showers/storms through Friday. Onshore flow returns
over the weekend out ahead of the next weather system that brings
increasing rain chances Sunday/Monday, and another cold front
some time on Monday.
Batiste
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
North winds gusting to 20-30mph and RH`s bottoming out in the 28-45%
range behind the front on Wednesday will produce some elevated fire
wx conditions. Doesn`t currently appear we`ll reach Red Flag Warning
criteria, though caution is advised. Texas A&M Forest Service
indicates a moderate fire danger rating. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 58 61 48 / 0 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 66 67 49 / 0 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 64 67 54 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 9 AM CST this morning
through this evening for GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
morning for GMZ370-375.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 271136
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
536 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 222 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Another mostly cloudy, breezy day with late spring-like
temperatures. Looks like most record highs across inland areas are
in the 86-87F range so doubt we`ll be setting any new ones, but with
the warm start to the day, 80-85F looks entirely likely. Low
cloudiness this morning and some upper Pacific cloud cover should
limit available sunshine.
Upper trof will be tracking eastward across the Plains tonight.
Associated surface frontal boundary will push into the region later
tonight and off the coast by mid morning Wed. Winds look like
they`ll weaken as the front approaches so we`ll probably see some
sea fog development closer to the coast. As far as rain chances
go...despite some 1.2-1.4" PW`s pooling ahead of the front, mid
level ridging and significant low level capping should keep chances
on the very low to nil side.
Highs on Wednesday will be experienced in the morning. Moderate CAA,
breezy winds, and some upper cloudiness should keep things on the
cool side throughout the day. Lows Wednesday night will dip back
closer to seasonal norms in the 48-55F range. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
The last time the City of Houston had a high temperature below
78°F was on February 19th. To cap off meteorological winter on
Thursday (February 29th), we`ll have high temperatures in the
upper 50s to low 60s across all of Southeast Texas...so these
will be our coolest daytime temperatures in 10 days! Overcast
clouds remain in place throughout the day on Thursday with
building moisture as a coastal trough drifts towards the TX Gulf
coast. This is out ahead of an approaching embedded shortwave
moving in from the west that will generate our next chance of rain
late Thursday into Friday morning. PW values surge to 1.0"-1.4"
with the higher end of that range south of I-10. A LLJ also moves
in over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods that`ll add in another
source of lift. Drier air filters back in going into Friday night
as the coastal trough exits to the east. That takes us into a
warming trend with high temperatures rising into the mid 70s on
Friday and into the low 80s over the weekend.
Over the weekend is also when our next weather system takes shape as
an upper level trough drifts across the western CONUS and generates
surface low pressure (lee cyclogenesis) close to the Northern
Plains. Moisture advection is resultingly enhanced on Sunday in the
warm sector with PW values climbing up to 1.4" on Sunday afternoon.
There`ll be enough PVA from approaching shortwaves ahead of and
beneath the main upper level trough to generate some scattered
showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday afternoon. Shower/storm
chances continue into Monday as a cold front is expected to push
through Southeast Texas. PW values surge along the frontal boundary
up to 1.6" (90th percentile: ~1.37"), so there will be potential for
locally heavy rainfall. It`s a bit early to nail down precise timing
of the front, but behind the front surface high pressure looks to at
least briefly build in on Tuesday with cooler and drier air
filtering in as well. I stuck with the NBM for temperatures given
the FROPA timing uncertainty, but that still shows low temperatures
returning back into 40s/50s overnight behind the front.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 535 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
With the exception of coastal sites, MVFR-IFR ceilings should
gradually lift back into VFR territory as the morning progresses.
Breezy ssw winds are anticipated again with gusts above 20kt at
times. Gustiness diminishes this evening, but MVFR-IFR stratus
fills back in overnight in advance of a cold front that will be
moving into the region. Coastal sites may see some reduced
visibilities in association with some sea fog in the vicinity
tonight. The front will push thru CLL/UTS prior to sunrise then
off the coast by mid morning. Fog and low ceilings will lift
behind the front as gusty north winds set in. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Moderate southerly to southwesterly winds will persist through
tonight leading to gradually building seas and an increased risk of
rip currents. Winds and seas in the offshore Gulf waters are
expected to be around 20 knots and 7 feet, so a Small Craft Advisory
will go into effect later this morning through tonight. There will
be a brief window of below advisory conditions, but another Small
Craft Advisory will likely be needed through late Thursday with
moderate to strong northerly/northeasterly winds in the wake of a
cold front. There remains some potential for patchy sea fog until
the front pushes offshore on Wednesday morning, but the elevated
winds and warming water temperatures should keep the fog from
becoming dense. Moderate to strong offshore winds and elevated seas
persisting into Thursday night before gradually diminishing. A
coastal weather system develops on Thursday night and brings the
next chance of showers/storms through Friday. Onshore flow returns
over the weekend out ahead of the next weather system that brings
increasing rain chances Sunday/Monday, and another cold front
some time on Monday.
Batiste
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
North winds gusting to 20-30mph and RH`s bottoming out in the 28-45%
range behind the front on Wednesday will produce some elevated fire
wx conditions. Doesn`t currently appear we`ll reach Red Flag Warning
criteria, though caution is advised. Texas A&M Forest Service
indicates a moderate fire danger rating. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 58 61 48 / 0 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 66 67 49 / 0 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 64 67 54 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 9 AM CST this morning
through this evening for GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
morning for GMZ370-375.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
I dont think I have ever seen a winter abruptly end like this in February. Concerning whats to come for summertime.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)