February 2024

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121119
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
519 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

Cool, breezy, post-frontal conditions can be expected across SE
Texas today. Gusty northerly winds of 15-25 MPH with higher gusts
up to 30 MPH will be possible this morning, with the strongest
winds expected along the coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. Winds
across the barrier islands will be in the range of 20-25 MPH,
though it does not appear to be high enough/sustained long enough
to warrant wind advisories yet. These moderate to strong winds
should begin to decrease during the afternoon as surface high
pressure builds in from the western half of the state. Skies clear
out during this period as wrap-around moisture is dragged
eastward by a passing mid/upper level trough. Highs today should
be in the 50s with isolated spots in the lower 60s. Lows heading
into Tuesday morning will be in the 30s inland and 40s along the
coast.

Surface high pressure passes overhead on Tuesday, bringing light
winds and benign weather across SE Texas. Onshore flow returns
Tuesday evening as the surface high tracks eastward into the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. This should usher in a warming trend
over the next several days (see long term). Otherwise, highs for
Tuesday afternoon will be in the 60s with Wednesday morning lows
in the mid 30s/40s inland and lower 50s along the coast.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

Quiet and comfortable weather conditions continue by midweek with
near normal temperatures. Return flow from the departing surface
high will gradually surge a warm and more humid airmass into the
region Wednesday and Thursday, being Thursday the warmest day of the
long term period. Highs in the low 70s can be expected.

The pattern will change Friday into the weekend as different systems
move through the region; a coastal trough and a strong cold front.
First, a subtropical jet will open a funnel of Pacific moisture and
a parade of mid-level shortwaves over northern MX/Deep South TX
Thursday into the weekend. This pattern will induce a surface
coastal trough near the South TX coast, slowly moving north-
northeast into the Upper TX coast on Friday. Latest model runs
suggest that the bulk of precipitation should remain offshore. As of
now, showers with isolated thunderstorms will be possible over or
off the coast by Friday, gradually expanding inland as the low moves
closer to our area Friday night into Saturday. By Saturday,
scattered showers will be ongoing at two main areas: 1)over the
coastal counties/coastal waters, and 2) further inland ahead/along
an approaching cold front. This frontal boundary will be pushed by a
strong surface high pressure (~1032mb) that will dive southward from
the Northern Rockies/High Plains. Behind the front, colder
conditions are expected to start off the upcoming week. Given strong
cold air advection in the wake of this FROPA; have lowered
temperatures below NBM guidance Saturday-Sunday time frame. For
Saturday and Sunday have highs into the low 50s to low 60s and
overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 420 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

MVFR CIGs should scatter/lift throughout the morning with VFR
conditions resuming this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds will
prevail throughout the day, diminishing this evening and becoming
light & variable overnight. Light winds and VFR conditions prevail
through Wednesday morning.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

Hazardous marine conditions continue today with strong offshore
winds and elevated seas and the potential for abnormally low water
levels. Gale-force winds can be expected through at least midday,
with moderate to strong winds persisting through early evening.
Warnings and Advisories remain in effect. Low Water Advisory also
remains in effect across the Bays until this afternoon. Winds and
seas weaken/subside this evening. Onshore flow resumes by Tuesday
as a surface high pressure moves overhead. Winds will become
moderate at times throughout the week before strengthening this
weekend ahead of the next system. A coastal surface low is
expected to move across the Upper TX coast Friday, followed by
the arrival of a stronger cold front on Saturday. Therefore,
expect increasing rain and storm chances as well as elevated winds
and seas Friday into the weekend.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 57 37 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 59 40 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 59 47 58 52 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335.

Low Water Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ330-335.

Gale Warning until noon CST today for GMZ350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening
for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 122104
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
304 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

...New HYDROLOGY...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 227 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

The last time that we`ve had a high temperature below 60°F (for the
City of Houston) was January 21st. That`s just over three weeks
ago...and in case y`all didn`t know (cause mother nature surely
doesn`t), it`s still wintertime even though it`s felt more like a
free trial of springtime recently. The free trial was cancelled (at
least temporarily) yesterday with the passage of a cold front that
has led to quite the cool and breezy day. Elevated northwesterly
winds within a LLJ wrapping around the upper level low combined with
DALR from the surface up to ~1 km have led to some stronger wind
gusts mixing down to the surface mainly during the mid morning to
the afternoon hours today. As the upper low continues to push
eastward, we`ll see winds continue on a downward trend going into
the late afternoon hours. 850mb temperatures ranging from 0°C-5°C
along with prevailing CAA will lead to temperatures topping out
mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Surface high pressure slides in
overnight leading to winds becoming light. Skies will continue to
clear out and will remain clear going into the overnight hours as
well, so it`s time for everyone`s favorite equation! No...not the
Quasi-geostrophic Omega equation, but the max radiational cooling
equation! Clear skies + light winds + dry air = max radiational
cooling...see now that`s easy to derive! Temperatures tonight will
drop into the mid 30s to low 40s with some low 30s possible in the
Piney Woods. Some in northern areas may see patchy frost in their
yards in the early morning hours.

On Tuesday, an 850mb ridge builds in leading to a slight rise in
temperatures aloft (~5-9°C). This combined with prevailing dry air
(PW values around the 10th percentile [~0.33"]), sunny skies, and
light onshore flow returning due to surface high pressure sliding
off to the east means that we`ll be able to warm up a bit more
efficiently. Expect Tuesday`s high temperatures to range from the
low to mid 60s. Moisture continues to increase from the southwest
going into Tuesday night as onshore flow persists. Cloud cover will
also increase from south to north during this timeframe with
shortwaves streaking past along the coast along with debatable upper
level divergence from a jet streak (right entrance region) drifting
northward over Southeast TX. As a result, temperatures will be a bit
warmer on Tuesday night compared to Monday night especially for
areas south of I-10. Low temperatures will range from the upper 30s
to low 40s north of I-10 and the low to mid 40s south of I-10. I,
for one, am glad that I can wear hoodies comfortably again!

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

The long term forecast is not fundamentally different from how it
looked this time yesterday. Still anticipating a mid/upper through
to cross over Mexico Thursday-Friday while a cold front and
~1030mb sfc high surge southward into our region on Friday into
Saturday. Wednesday is expected to be a relatively nice day with
afternoon temperatures btwn 65-70 degrees. Clouds will already be
on the increase as zonal flow aloft transitions into a
southwesterly regime, introducing Pacific moisture into our
mid/upper atmosphere. Wednesday night lows are expected to be less
cool due to the increasing clouds, with temps only falling into
the 50s for most locations. A departing surface high to our east
will enhance return flow from the Gulf, resulting in a warm and
increasingly muggy Thursday with afternoon temperatures in the
70s.

The mid/upper environment created by the aforementioned trough
will help to induce a coastal trough by week`s end while the
aforementioned cold front pushes through our region by Friday into
Saturday. The set up is expected to favor the development of rain
across our region, with the highest PoPs occurring over the
southern half of the CWA. Once the front moves offshore, sfc high
pressure will build into SE TX in its wake, ushering in a cooler
and much drier air mass by Saturday. Overnight lows Saturday night
could fall into the 30s across much of SE TX. So winter isn`t
over yet my friends!

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

MVFR ceilings continue to dissipate across Southeast TX with VFR
conditions returning at all area terminals within an hour or two.
So, the main focus is breezy northwesterly winds sustained at
15-20 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts. Winds will gradually subside
going into the late afternoon/evening hours and become light and
variable after sunset. These light winds will prevail into Tuesday
afternoon, but they will be in the process of becoming
southeasterly as surface high pressure slides eastward.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

Winds and seas will continue their gradual decline through
tonight. Conditions are expected to drop below Small Craft
Advisory levels by this evening. An onshore flow pattern returns
on Tuesday, with light to moderate onshore flow continuing through
Thursday. Rising moisture levels will eventually make the
environment more conducive to marine fog development. The chance
of fog this week is expected to be highest on Thursday and Friday.
The next system will impact the Gulf waters late Thursday through
Saturday bringing increasing rain chances along with rising winds
and seas. Guidance continues to suggest an area of low pressure
will form over the western Gulf of Mexico late this week. The
gradient between the low and the building high to the north could
easily bring the return of Small Craft level conditions Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 304 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

Rainfall over the past couple of days falling on top of already
saturated soils (especially across portions of the Brazos Valley and
the Piney Woods areas) have led to responses mainly along the Brazos
and Trinity rivers. As of Monday afternoon, there are a few gauges
currently in action stage along the Trinity River and a few gauges
are forecast to go into action stage over the next few days along
the San Jacinto and Brazos Rivers from routed flows. The Trinity
River at Moss Bluff [MBFT2], which has been in action stage for
about a week at this point, is forecast to continue to rise and
eventually reach minor flood stage on Wednesday afternoon. We will
continue to monitor observed and forecast hydrograph trends and
provide updates as needed.

You can monitor current and forecast conditions at this weblink:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=HGX

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 37 64 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 40 65 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 47 59 53 63 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355-
370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Self

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131104
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
504 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 347 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024

Most of the forecast is fairly lowkey and straightforward this
week as fair weather prevails. The notable exception comes at the
end of the week, as a coastal trough/low moves through the
northwestern Gulf. Here`s a short summary of what we`re looking
for:

1. Another round of rain for much of the area, primarily on
Friday. The best potential for rain, and a marginal threat of
heavier rain will be on the coast. Rain chances drop off as you
head inland. Some folks well inland may miss out on rain entirely.
This will be *strongly* dependent on the exact track and strength
of this low.

2. On the waters and immediate coast, we`ll be on the
lookout for some fog as the coastal low approaches and moves by.
More details on this in the marine section below.

3. Though not directly related to this low, look for a surge of
colder air to move in after it departs to briefly remind us that
it is still wintertime in Southeast Texas. Saturday night looks to
be the coldest night - though freezing temps look to stay hemmed
up north of the Houston metro (with apologies to the northern
parts of our area in Caldwell, B/CS, Madisonville, and Houston the
County), it will be a chilly night with lows below 40 degrees for
all but the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 347 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024

Surface high pressure is progged to passed overhead today, bringing
light winds and benign weather across the region. Onshore flow
returns this evening as the surface high tracks eastward into the
Lower Mississippi River Valley, ushering in a warming trend over the
next several days. Highs this afternoon will be in the 60s with
Wednesday morning lows dropping into in the mid 30s/40s inland and
lower 50s along the coast. Returning moisture and strong winds aloft
will bring increasing cloud cover for Wednesday. WAA should continue
regardless, with highs reaching the upper 60s with isolated spots
potentially hitting the 70 degree mark. Rising moisture overnight
may bring patchy fog across portions of SE Texas heading into
Thursday morning, primarily south of I-10 closer to the coast. Lows
for Thursday morning will be in the upper 40s/50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024

Alright, so now that we`re into the long term portion of the
forecast, things get a little more interesting. I`m not biased at
all as the author of this section, nope, not at all.

We actually start with a really subtle shortwave trough on
Thursday making its way across the eastern portion of Texas. This
is a really subtle upper trough, and with low level moisture
likely relatively meager from weaker onshore flow to this point,
and progged precipitable water values still below an inch, I
wouldn`t expect much more than some increased cloudiness. Despite
that, highs should still pretty safely clear 70 degrees for
virtually the entire area, and a good swath of the Coastal Plain
just a bit inland from the coast will make a good run for the
middle 70s.

Hot on the tails of this shortwave trough, however, will be an
incoming stream of vorticity from the west/southwest, giving us a
good Pacific connection aloft. Meanwhile, continued onshore flow
will continue to boost dewpoints to around and above 60 degrees,
and now we should see precipitable water surge above 1.25 inches
and even around/above 1.5 inches at the Gulf Coast. In both the
NAEFS and Euro ensemble output, mean precipitable water is progged
to be above the 90th percentile, and even above the 97th
percentile down around Matagorda Bay. In other words...it looks
juicy come the end of the week.

Other ingredients for rain and storms? Eh...they`re definitely
there, don`t get me wrong, but they also don`t quite match the
numbers I just rattled off for PWAT. Ensemble CAPE numbers don`t
look particularly anomalous. This coastal low setup with a good
Pacific connection in an unsettled pattern aloft is pretty much
textbook for getting rain and storms...but how that plays out is
extremely dependent on the strength and track of that surface low.
I am not going to be foolish enough to claim a lot of confidence
on that. I will note that there is a fairly wide spread in the
deterministic guidance here, which isn`t necessarily inspiring of
a lot of confidence. But in spite of the muddled details, it seems
most outcomes favor heavier rain offshore, potentially bleeding
onto the coast some, but with a gradient downwards towards drier
conditions the more you go inland.

Ultimately, I`d break up our area of responsibility into three
chunks. First, within a county or so of the Gulf is where rain
between Thursday night and Saturday morning is very likely, and
also has the potential for some heavier rain if things line up
just right/wrong. In exploring a higher-end scenario, the 90th
percentile NBM QPF along the coast is in excess of two inches. Not
really an eye-popping number, but worth noting that this event is
still largely in the realm of more parameterized global models,
so it will be a bit broad-brushed by definition. Also, given the
recent wet conditions we`ve had in the area, hydrologic/flooding
responses are increasingly out of whack with what we`d consider
"typical", and we should expect to see localized flooding concerns
emerge earlier than we might usually anticipate. All in all, in
talking with WPC about it, the marginal risk area along our
immediate coast in their experimental Day 4 outlook appears quite
reasonable for what we know at this time.

Looking farther inland, the bulk of our forecast area is still
likely to see rain at some point in this Thursday night to
Saturday morning window. However, both the coverage and intensity
of this rain could swing wildly depending on the specifics of the
coastal low. We could still see some solid rain if the low tracks
very near the coast, shoving the higher potential for heavier
rains farther inland. That 90th percentile amount is solidly in
the 1-2 inch range across this band. But if we flip things around
and look at a drier scenario, we could see as little as just a few
hundredths. In general, I`d expect a setup in which we see
widespread showers, but not a persistent swath, giving folks in
this band a half an inch or less of rain through some on and off
showers.

Finally, in a narrow band well inland, we can anticipate the least
potential for rain. A very wet scenario could still bring in
numerous showers with potential for up to an inch of rain (in the
90th percentile NBM numbers), but a drier scenario would leave
folks far from the coast completely dry. In what I envision as the
most likely outcome, we`ll still manage to wring out scattered
showers...perhaps even an isolated thunderstorm on Friday this far
inland. However, the coverage will be even less than in the middle
band discussed above, so rain amounts should be light. That said,
I want to emphasize the foolishness in getting too attached to one
particular scenario - which is why I`m spending time trying to
explore the full range here, as all of these outcomes remain
plausible at this time.

Finally, what lies beyond Saturday? Well, while all this coastal
fun is happening, another upper trough in the northern stream is
making its way through. It will spur lee cyclogenesis in the
Plains, and as that low ejects off towards the Eastern Great
Lakes, it will drag a cold front through our area right behind the
coastal low`s exit. In its wake, high pressure drops in, and it
appears we`ll get enough phasing between these upper troughs, that
the door opens for a reminder of winter to push back in.

Again, we`re relying on a lot of smaller, moving parts to put this
scenario together for us, so I don`t want to get too into
specifics at nearly a week out. However, what I do have high
confidence in is that we will get noticeably colder this weekend.
We`ll see temps fall well below average for mid-to-late February.
Buuuut, at least for now, guidance is indicating that the coldest
air misses us to the east. The deterministic Euro doesn`t even
bring 850 temps below freezing into the area. NAEFS mean 850 temps
briefly touch the 10th percentile Saturday night, but the Euro
ensemble does not. To me, this paints a scenario that is
definitely winter, definitely colder than average, but also...not
exceptionally cold, either. I expect we`ll see some freezing temps
Saturday night in the northern reaches of the area, north of the
Houston metro. Whether they`ll be able to push any farther south
than that is very much in question.

Another thing to consider is the duration of colder conditions.
For now, it appears onshore flow looks to return Monday, which
should quickly modify incoming cold air, and keep this burst of
colder conditions relatively short-lived. I am largely rolling
with the deterministic NBM for temperatures at the end of the
forecast period, and this puts us back at seasonal averages or
higher by Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 442 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024

Light and variable winds will prevail throughout the day, becoming
southeasterly this evening, then strengthening Wednesday morning.
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024

Though a few gusts above 15 knots are being observed around the
Gulf Coast, seas are already to 4 feet at Freeport Buoy and winds
are largely 10 to 15 knots. Winds for now are generally more
offshore than not, but we should see that change through the day
today, with an onshore flow becoming more prominent tonight. This
flow pattern should continue until the next low pressure center
rolls through at the end of the week.

As warmer, more humid air flows into the area this week, we`ll
have to monitor for the return of marine fog. We could see patchy
fog return as quickly as tomorrow night, as water temperatures
remain generally below 60 degrees. However, winds will be veered a
little more southerly than typical for fog events, and dewpoints
will be struggling to reach/exceed water temps this soon. So if
there`s any fog at all, I wouldn`t expect much more than patchy,
relatively less dense fog. However, the potential for sea fog
looks to increase just ahead of the arrival of the next
disturbance. Dewpoints of the air over the relatively cooler
waters should increase more, and winds look to back a little more
easterly, a fetch that tends to be more favorable for sea fog
Thursday night into Friday. While fog will remain in the picture
until Saturday when offshore flow brings in a surge of drier air,
the turbulent flow associated with expected rain showers should
reduce the impact of the fog itself.

Of course, this is a bit of an exercise of trading one form of
sub-optimal marine conditions for another. Rounds of rain - heavy
at times - can be anticipated Friday into early Saturday, with
gusty offshore winds coming in after the rains exit. Small craft
advisories may be needed during this stretch.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 64 40 68 52 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 65 43 68 53 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 59 51 64 58 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Luchs

[jasons2k]

Had a chilly 36 this morning. Watching out for a possible freeze Sunday morning. Probably the last one of the season.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 141135
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
535 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024

The focus of the forecast revolves around a late week coastal low.
From increasing humidity and marine fog potential in advance of
the low, to expected rains - particularly closer to the coast -
with the passing low, and then the colder air expected to slide in
behind the low this weekend. Here are the big takeaways:

1. For marine interests and those living in the immediate vicinity
of the Gulf, increasingly warm and humid air over the cooler
February waters of the Gulf will provide us another shot at sea
fog this week. The marine section below has all the details.

2. The outlook for Friday`s rainfall remains tied tightly to the
precise strength and track of the expected coastal low. Right now,
the band right along the Gulf Coast has the highest chances for
rain, and the best potential to see heavier rain. This band is
also in a marginal risk area for excessive rain for WPC on Friday.

3. Once the low moves off and a cold front sweeps through, drier
and colder air moves in to remind us February is still a winter
month. Some freezing temperatures are likely to push into
Southeast Texas, but indications remain that they will stay north
of the Houston metro. Most all of the area, however, will see a
chill Saturday night, with lows in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 305 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024

It`ll be another day of quiet, pleasant weather here in SE Texas for
Valentines day. Strong winds aloft will bring increasing cloud cover
throughout the day. However, this won`t impeded the current warming
trend, with WAA and daytime heating working to bring highs in the
upper 60s with isolated locations reaching the lower 70s. Rising
moisture overnight may bring patchy fog across portions of SE Texas
by early Thursday morning, especially in areas closer to the coast.
Overnight lows heading into early Thursday morning will be in the
upper 40s/upper 50s.

Thursday will start off as yet another benign day. Even with cloudy
skies overhead, onshore flow and WAA should bring highs in the 70s
across SE Texas during the afternoon. Though by Thursday evening, an
upper level trough should dig in over Baja California. Rain chances
will increase overnight into Friday as this system slides eastward
while PWs climb to around 1.0-1.6 inches. Cloudy skies and ample
moisture should keep lows for Friday morning in the upper 50s/lower
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024

FRIDAY! FRIDAY! FRIDAY! Coastal low forecasting for the Northwest
Gulf and Southeast Texas, right here on Friday! The eye is
naturally drawn to the setup for the end of the week, and with
good reason. This is pretty historically good for giving at least
a portion of the area a soggy stretch, and also frequently has to
be evaluated for excessive rain potential as well. This low will
be no different, and unsurprisingly, a lot is going to depend on
subtle nuances in the strength and track of the low as it scrapes
by the area. A path that scrapes right along the coast or close
enough to shove a significant chunk of the warm sector onshore,
and most all of us get a real rainy day, and heavy rain potential
for some. On the other extreme, a low far offshore has the heavy
rain fall over the Gulf, and light-moderate rain falls closer to
the coast, leaving the rest of the area dry. Probably also
unsurprisingly, it is rarely so easy a forecast, and instead we
are splitting hairs over some outcome between the two, trying to
parse the nuances of a tight rainfall gradient somewhere in the
area.

Surprise, surprise, that`s what we`re going to be working with
again. Although fortunately, we seem to be getting a little more
concurrence among the guidance on some of the details. So, while
my forecast isn`t much different from last night, I do at least
feel a little more confident in it. It does seem that the trend is
to keep the swath of most certain rainfall offshore, clipping the
immediate coast. A little further inland, northward to roughly a
Brenham-Conroe-Cleveland line, rain is still likely, but more in
terms of seeing periods of rain on and off, and lower potential
for higher rain totals. North of that, we`ll surely still see
scattered showers, but we`ll also see a good mix of folks getting
rain and staying dry through the day. For those that do get rain,
that rain should largely be light to moderate.

Focusing in on the coast a little more, that row or two of
counties closest to the Gulf will have the highest potential for
seeing the longest duration and highest rainfall rates/totals.
This would be most true in the southwest towards Matagorda Bay,
where precipitable water values are progged to be their highest.
Ensemble means are still in the 90th to 99th percentile range,
progged to be 1.25 to 1.5 inches. Moisture is surely not going to
be a limiting factor here. However, lift and instability could be
bottlenecks, preventing things from escalating too much. Of the
guidance that reaches through Friday so far, the NAM is the
closest and strongest with the coastal low. Even here, it tracks
far enough offshore that the best lift stays offshore over the
Gulf. Instability in this area is meager to nil - likely because
today looks to be the last mostly sunny day, while clouds, then
showers prevail. I ended up pulling any mention of thunder for
lack of confidence, but if we manage to get a lightning strike
anywhere, I`d actually bet on it being farther north, where we
might manage enough daytime heating to generate a little diurnal
instability.

There`ll be rain, and the ample moisture present will allow for
that rain to pile up some, but the overall threat is somewhat
mitigated. This is good, because it`s been pretty rainy across
Southeast Texas of late, and flooding concerns are probably going
to crop up more quickly than usual. The Euro Ensemble EFI does
show a modest signal for abnormal QPF along the coast, below
Galveston Bay and really, even beyond Matagorda Bay. But as for
our area of responsibility, that`s where the peak is - in the
0.5-0.7 range. Not frightfully high in normal cases, but a signal
for some heavy rain potential, and largely lining up with where
the environment would also indicate heavy rain - if any at all -
is going to occur. Lining right up with that is WPC`s Day 3
excessive rainfall outlook, keeping that marginal risk band right
up on the coast.

While all this is happening, we`ll still have a deepening northern
stream trough swinging through the Central US, supporting a
surface low way up north, but dragging a cold front through
Southeast Texas on Saturday. That front will usher in gusty
offshore winds; colder, drier air; and a good reminder that
February is still a winter month. On the brighter side, this
should not be the most severe reminder. Both GEFS and Euro
ensemble mean 850 temps are...around...the 10th percentile
Saturday night, but not really solidly below it. Good indicator
that it`s gonna get chilly, but not screaming out a big arctic
blast. Ultimately, I remain convinced by the agreement in the
global deterministic guidance that the phasing in northern and
southern stream troughs will mean the coldest air does not dive
into Southeast Texas. I will grant, however, that when we`re
looking at trough phasing, all it takes is things lining up just a
little differently to change the picture a lot. I am not particularly
concerned this will happen given the model consensus, but I do
have to admit it`s still a non-zero possibility.

Still, going back to the Euro EFI, it`s a pretty broad swath
showing an EFI for abnormally cold temps around 0.5 (or even
less). I did abandon the deterministic NBM on Saturday night lows for
a colder blend of other consensus guidance and the 25th percentile
NBM, as the deterministic NBM did not seem to match the subtle
signal for abnormally colder temps that does exist in the
GEFS and EPS data. But onshore flow looks to resume quickly, by
Monday, and so I do pretty quickly sub the deterministic NBM back
in there, which shows a pretty reasonable trend for warming into
the new week as ridging takes over.

&&

.AVIATION...
(09Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 341 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024

Light south/southeast winds and VFR conditions should prevail
throughout the day. Cloud cover increases this evening, with decks
gradually lowering overnight. Patchy fog may develop across
portions of SE Texas early Thursday morning, along with some MVFR
CIGS. Any fog/cigs should burn off by mid Thursday morning.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024

Sea fog is a real concern on the waters in advance of and while
this expected coastal low passes. However, dewpoints in the
warmer, more humid air moving in will struggle to surpass water
temperatures, and the wind`s fetch is not the most supportive of
widespread dense sea fog events. It would not be surprising to see
sea fog crop up, particularly Thursday night before the swath of
rains move in - but at this time such fog would be expected to be
more patchy, and generally less dense.

In the wake of the coastal low and the cold front sweeping through
behind it, expect gusty north to northeast winds to develop on
Saturday. Caution flags seem likely, and small craft advisories
may be needed before winds diminish and seas subside on Sunday.
With winds tending to be a little more east of north, the concern
for low water on the ship channel is mitigated, as Trinity Bay
will be most vulnerable to lower water with that fetch.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 53 73 60 / 0 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 69 54 75 60 / 0 0 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 64 58 67 60 / 0 0 0 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Luchs

[Thundersleet]

In English tireman4, if you please. If this year’s February is turning out to be a wimpy one Winter wise than just so. If this month is going to end up or might end up being not that wintery than just say so. I, for one, do not want or need to get any of my hopes up.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 161126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
526 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 308 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024
adar is showing the first of the day`s rains begin to make its way
into the western portion of our area. Mesoscale analysis shows that
a coastal low is beginning to form up down the coast, closer to
Corpus Christi, but it is relatively weak and diffuse...for now. All
appears on track for rain showers to continue to overspread the area
through the day, particularly south of I-10, where rain is likely
through the morning and into the afternoon.
North of I-10, we can still expect to see showers crop up, but
they`ll be more scattered in nature, with lower rainfall amounts and
with chances of seeing rain at any given point relatively lower. In
other words - confidence is high that there will be rain in some
spots well inland, but the confidence that it will rain at one
particular spot is relatively low. Meanwhile, closer to the coast,
confidence is relatively higher for both of those statements.

Swinging our attention back to the coast, what kind of rainfall are
we looking at, exactly? It has been one of, if not the most
important forecast question for several days now. And as we make our
way into the event, confidence continues to increase that the track
of this low (or even an open trough, as guidance has been backing
off the strength of this feature as well) will be relatively far
offshore, keeping the deepest moisture and heaviest rains over the
Gulf. Over land, the highest progged mean precipitable water in our
area in the HREF is near Matagorda Bay, reaching to around 1.5
inches. This will also be the portion of our area closest to the
low/trough axis. Even still, our QPF forecast is only in the 0.5-1
inch range.

Looking into the HREF data again, the 24 hour LPMM numbers are
similar, and there is a 10 percent contour around the Matagorda Bay
area this morning for an inch in three hours. So not nothing, and
rain could get heavier at times, but even where the rain is expected
to be heaviest, the numbers are relatively manageable.
We`ll want to stay on our toes, as recent rain events have somewhat
overperformed, likely due to antecedent conditions and seasonal
tendency of winter ground to see runoff more quickly, though even
this is probably out of an abundance of caution. Even taking these
conditions, WPC is opting to not draw any threat levels for
excessive rain in our area, and my read of the situation is broadly
the same. Another perspective that may resonate with folks is to
just simply look at the HREF max precip for an idea of the worst
case scenario. Progged maximum rainfall north of I-10 is half an
inch or less, with only a small bullseye of 2.5-4 inches in parts of
Jackson and Matagorda counties, while rest of the coastal area is
more in the 1-2 inch range. And this is the *maximum* rainfall
coming out of the HREF members. That would start to cause issues for
sure, and is why we don`t want to sleep on today`s rain entirely;
but also if this is the worst the guidance is throwing at us, that`s
a good sign. Definitely beats having to look at the HREF max QPF and
wonder if someone will see a realization of a 7-10 or 10-15 inch
bullseye in our usual big rain events.

I`m expecting the bulk of the rain to drift offshore by mid to late
afternoon today, and this will largely put an end to rain north of I-
10, and even showers closer to the coast should be winding down.
But, a cold front will be pushing its way in from the north and
aloft, we still look to have a solid stream of vorticity pushing
through aloft. While the chances will be slight, there could be a
handful of light showers that occur on/near the front as it pushes
through Southeast Texas this evening. If there are any showers,
they`ll be quick and light, with accumulations slim to none.

What won`t be slim to none behind the cold front are strengthening
north winds and the influx of colder air on those winds. Despite
building through the night, we can expect to see 10-15 mph winds
late tonight, and will likely increase more to the 15-20 mph range
towards mid-day as we get better solar heating and vertical mixing.
Similarly, we can expect gusts to exceed 20 mph from northwest to
southeast through the night after midnight, with 20-25 mph gusts for
much of the day until winds begin to diminish in the late afternoon
towards evening. This is close to the threshold for a wind advisory,
and while I don`t have the confidence to go with a very long fuse on
an advisory tonight, I reserve the right to come back tomorrow night
and say we need one.

It`s probably unsurprising to hear that with strong north winds
behind a cold front in February, it`s going to get chilly up north
tonight, and across the area tomorrow night. I have no surprises for
you here. The front comes through late enough that lows are expected
to only fall into the 40s for the vast majority of the area tonight.
But with the continued gusty north winds, afternoon highs on
Saturday won`t be much higher - I`ve got 50s across Southeast Texas,
a good 15-20 degrees cooler than we have in the forecast for today.
We should see low temperatures Saturday night make their biggest
plunge. On the bright side, this isn`t the biggest plunge around. In
general, guidance keeps 850 temps above freezing for all but the
very northernmost reaches of our area (hey there, Houston County;
the county, not the city) and so freezing temps will be similarly
limited. Places that look more likely to get a light freeze:
Crockett, Madisonville, Bryan/College Station, Caldwell. The rest
of us don`t get off easy, though. Except for The Island, Bolivar,
and the other barrier "islands" that lie beyond the intracoastal
waterway, temperatures Saturday night should fall into the 30s
everywhere. I would expect to see localized cold spots across the
area briefly dip below freezing around sunrise Sunday, even if
that may not be representative of the broader area (looking at
you, Conroe airport!)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024

A gradual warming trend is expected in the long term due to the
influence of a building mid/upper ridge and the introduction of LL
WAA. However, the beginning of the long term still finds itself in
a cooler than normal regime with Sunday`s highs in the mid/upper
50s and overnight lows in the mid 30s to low 40s (mid/upper 40s
near the coast). By Monday, an eastward progressing sfc high
pressure system will push into SE CONUS, shifting our LL flow to a
southerly direction. Meanwhile, the aforementioned mid/upper
ridge begins its slow build. These factors will commence the
warming trend with Monday afternoon temperatures likely warming
well into the 60s and possibly into the low 70s in spots. The
ridge continues to build through mid-week. Global ensemble means
suggest 500MB heights peaking in the 585-588 dm range by
Wednesday. Quite high for February! Temperatures are
unsurprisingly expected to be warmer than normal with afternoon
highs at least in the mid/upper 70s. Lows will generally be in the
50s. Areas near the coast will likely be cooler due to the chilly
Gulf waters. However, some inland spots could break the 80 degree
mark by Tuesday or Wednesday.

The synoptic pattern is expected to be in flux by the end of the
long term due to the breakdown of the ridge on Thursday. Though
this may be a harbinger of at least slightly cooler temperatures,
you may have to wait until after Thursday to experience cooler
weather. In fact, there`s some data suggesting Thursday could be
warmer than Wednesday due to compressional heating / increasing LL
WAA ahead of the approaching front. For now, we are forecasting
Thursday`s highs to be around 80 inland and low/mid 70s near the
coast.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 526 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024

Messy day ahead as rain showers overspread the area with cloud
bases coming down, particularly south of IAH. Have at least VCSH
everywhere, with CLL and UTS the notable exceptions of getting to
escape prevailing SHRA as rain will be more scattered/isolated up
there. Do go to -SHRA everwhere else, along with a TEMPO SHRA from
IAH coastward with best guess of when moderate rainfall is
possible. Right now CIGs mostly up around 100, but low VFR/high
MVFR CIGs are beginning to emerge, and expect that will expand
early this morning. Potentially annoying situation with CIGs
bouncing between MVFR and VFR today. Rain mostly pushes offshore,
and VCSH/SHRA ends north to south through the afternoon. Later,
low MVFR/high IFR along with some fog begins to emerge as winds go
slack and moisture pools just before front`s arrival. Winds
switch around to northerly after the front, becoming gusty just
before the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024

Onshore flow and slowly rising dew points will result in an
increasingly favorable environment for patchy sea fog today. In
addition, widespread rain showers may also result in areas of
reduced visibility. By Saturday morning, a cold front will push
offshore. Rain showers will end from north to south on Saturday as
dry air filters southward behind the front. However, strong
northeasterly winds are likely in the front`s wake, prompting
Small Craft Advisories for the bays and the Gulf waters from
Saturday morning through Sunday. Seas offshore are expected to
peak in the 8-11 foot range with occasionally seas. Conditions
will improve on Sunday. Onshore flow returns on Monday with light
to moderate south to south-southwest winds continuing through
Wednesday. How much sea surface temperatures drop behind
Saturday`s cold front will need to be monitored in order to gauge
the fog risk as moisture levels creep up Tuesday through Thursday.
Winds and seas are expected to increase on Thursday as a cold
front approaches from the northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 42 51 32 / 30 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 47 53 36 / 80 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 64 49 57 41 / 80 40 30 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self

[DoctorMu]

Had a chilly 36 this morning. Watching out for a possible freeze Sunday morning. Probably the last one of the season.

We had 32°F. One more frost this weekend, and that's about it for winter. Maybe another freak front. The mosquito hawks and grackles are back and climo is taking a hand. In 2021, they didn't who up until March.

Have not been able to login here for a week+. Site stability or security issue.

[Cromagnum]

In English tireman4, if you please. If this year’s February is turning out to be a wimpy one Winter wise than just so. If this month is going to end up or might end up being not that wintery than just say so. I, for one, do not want or need to get any of my hopes up.

Winter ended 3-4 weeks ago. Spring is full speed ahead already. My lawn is greening back up and all the birds and mosquito hawks are all back.

[Cpv17]

In English tireman4, if you please. If this year’s February is turning out to be a wimpy one Winter wise than just so. If this month is going to end up or might end up being not that wintery than just say so. I, for one, do not want or need to get any of my hopes up.

Winter ended 3-4 weeks ago. Spring is full speed ahead already. My lawn is greening back up and all the birds and mosquito hawks are all back.

Your version of winter is much different than your average southeast TX citizen though.

[Belmer]

On average, Houston's last freeze is between Feb 15-20. Unlikely IAH will record a freeze tonight, but it will likely be the closest they'll get, dare I say until November or December? I don't mind the cold, but once there's a prolong period of warmth, I get the Spring itch and ready to move on. Looking ahead, pretty good agreement the rest of the month will finish warm and fairly dry. Some differences in what the first half of March brings, but could transition back to a wetter pattern. Either way, don't see any significant cold snaps. Keep in mind, even if we do get a 'strong' front in March, average high temp on March 1 is 71º and by the end of the month it is up to 77º and you're fighting longer daylight/sun angle. Snow pack across the country is running well below normal for where it should be for this time, and with the warm temps expected for the next 10-15 days east of the Rockies, any cold air that does spill south will moderate quickly with the lack of snow depth. This time next month, the sun will set after 7:30PM.

Odds increasing La Niña returns this summer, up to 55% now. Important we keep the rain going into the Spring and even into June with Nina peeking. Last couple of years the faucet has turned off as soon as June starts across the state.

[user:null]

Yep, winter is over. This morning was the last chance this season for any freezing temps to materialize in the are — and they mostly failed to do so (sans certain cold spots, largely north of I-10).

As for summer, it's possible that this year might be more forgiving than the previous two in terms of yielding more rain chances/less dryness. The Nina would only be in beginning phases, not really enough to affect the baseline state regarding rains (especially in the antecedent spring season going into summer). Also, ENSO isn't really of that much relevance as far as the summer rainfall in/of itself — the 2021 summer was firmly La Nina, and that one was mild and wet compared to 2022 (also La Nina) and especially 2023 (a building El Nino). Based on sentiments from Storm2k, the -PDO is apparently the problem regarding any lack of summer rainfall in Texas.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201121
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
521 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 224 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

We begin today not nearly as cold as we did yesterday. Most
communities are starting the day off with temperatures in the 40s.
Be advised that you may encounter areas of dense fog during your
morning commute. Any fog is likely to break by mid-morning. A
building mid/upper ridge over SW CONUS will push over TX today
through tomorrow. This will set the stage for spring-like warmth
with today`s temps warming into the 70s. Light southerly winds
from the Gulf will result in rising dew points throughout the day.
Areas south of I-10 could have dew points reaching 60 by the end
of the day. This moist, southerly flow will prevent temperatures
from falling as quickly tonight as compared to recent nights. Lows
are generally expected to be in the mid/upper 50s. Some
locations, especially near the coast, may struggle to drop below
60 degrees. Forecast soundings are showing another favorable set
up for at least patchy fog late tonight into tomorrow morning.
SREF/NBM hinting that fog could become quite widespread. Much like
today, any fog tomorrow should break by mid-morning. Southerly
winds increase on Wednesday as the gradient steepens between high
pressure over eastern CONUS and lowering pressure over the plains.
This enhanced flow from the Gulf will raise dew points further.
Wednesday`s highs are expected to be well into the 70s for most
inland areas. Couldn`t rule out a few spots reaching 80. Temps at
the beaches are expected to be about 5 to 7 degrees cooler than
inland areas.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

On Thursday, morning fog will burn off, and with southwest winds in
place for much of the day (occasionally gusty from a tightened
pressure gradient) ahead of the next cold front, inland afternoon
high temperatures will peak in an upper 70s to lower 80s range
(closer to the beaches, upper 60s to lower 70s should be more
common). The front and its associated wind shift to the northwest
currently looks to enter our northern counties in the afternoon and
work its way to and off the coast around or shortly after midnight.
Cooler overnight lows (and lower humidities) can be expected behind
the front with Friday morning temperatures mainly in the low to mid
50s. Surface high pressure building into the state behind the front
at the end of the week will work its way eastward and will be off
the coast on Saturday night (on Friday, expect north winds with
highs in the 70s; on Saturday, expect light/variable winds with lows
in the 40s and highs in the 70s). With the high now off to the east,
an onshore flow returns to the area Sunday and Monday with gradually
increasing clouds along with rising temperatures/humidities. For
highs, Sunday and Monday will be back into the 80s for a large part
of the area. For lows, the 40s/50s on Sunday should end up in the
50s/60s on Monday.

It is currently looking like some rain chances could end up back in
the forecast on Tuesday.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 504 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

Areas of fog are resulting in reduced visibility for some
terminals this morning. At times, fog is resulting in LIFR
conditions. Fog will not impact every location. Where fog does
occur, MVFR/IFR conditions will be easily accomplished. Fog
dissipates by mid-morning, yielding to a VFR day with light SSW to
S winds. Forecast soundings and hi resolution guidance point to
lowering cigs/vis late tonight into Wednesday morning. Could have
widespread MVFR or even IFR conditions by day break tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

Today will feature light southerly flow and low seas. Morning fog
cannot be ruled out in the bays this morning and again late
tonight into Wednesday morning. Southerly winds and seas will
start to increase on Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. The chance of Small Craft Advisory level conditions
continues to increase offshore, and to a lesser extent in the
bays, for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Winds become more
southwesterly on Thursday while decreasing somewhat. A period of
moderate offshore winds is expected in the wake of the frontal
passage on Friday. Winds are expected to veer back to an onshore
regime over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 57 77 62 / 0 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 76 56 77 62 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 60 70 62 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Self

[DoctorMu]

We had 28.9°F Monday morning. There's a cool front possible in early March. But climo has taken a hand. I think that's it. It least the insect population is low for now.

Still having trouble getting into the site at home. Only at work with a warning it's "unsafe."

I hope severe season is early and short. We need some dry air for the April 8 total eclipse!! We've had a foot of rain so far this year in CLL. The weeds are out of control in the back.

[DoctorMu]

Yep, winter is over. This morning was the last chance this season for any freezing temps to materialize in the are — and they mostly failed to do so (sans certain cold spots, largely north of I-10).

As for summer, it's possible that this year might be more forgiving than the previous two in terms of yielding more rain chances/less dryness. The Nina would only be in beginning phases, not really enough to affect the baseline state regarding rains (especially in the antecedent spring season going into summer). Also, ENSO isn't really of that much relevance as far as the summer rainfall in/of itself — the 2021 summer was firmly La Nina, and that one was mild and wet compared to 2022 (also La Nina) and especially 2023 (a building El Nino). Based on sentiments from Storm2k, the -PDO is apparently the problem regarding any lack of summer rainfall in Texas.

Tropical season could be supercharged.

[user:null]

Tropical season could be supercharged.

Yes, I've noticed quite a bit of predictions regarding an active cyclone season for summer 2024. I'm not sure if it's simply via Nina baseline, or if there is some other special phenomenon that is coming into play this year.

[Cpv17]

Tropical season could be supercharged.

Yes, I've noticed quite a bit of predictions regarding an active cyclone season for summer 2024. I'm not sure if it's simply via Nina baseline, or if there is some other special phenomenon that is coming into play this year.

Record high SST’s and low trades.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024

MVFR ceilings have been a bit slow to improve so far this morning,
but they should be lifting in the next hour or so based on trends
from satellite. As these clouds thin out, S/SW winds will pick up
(9-17kts) along with gusts (20-25kts) through this afternoon (and
possibly the early evening). This moderate to strong onshore flow
should de-couple tonight...but will likely persist just above the
surface. And so, this pattern should favor the development of low
CIGs (mainly MVFR) vs. low VIS (fog) tonight. 4

[Ptarmigan]

I have seen freezes in March regardless of El Nino or La Nina.

[Stratton20]

Its looking like a prolonged period of dry weather, pattern ahead looks absolutely terrible for rain