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Posted: **Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:17 am**

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invest_al902010.invest
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201010211211
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010102112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010102012, , BEST, 0, 96N, 185W, 15, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010102018, , BEST, 0, 97N, 195W, 15, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010102100, , BEST, 0, 98N, 205W, 15, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010102106, , BEST, 0, 99N, 215W, 20, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010102112, , BEST, 0, 100N, 225W, 20, 1010, LO

Code: Select all

182 
WHXX01 KWBC 211213
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1213 UTC THU OCT 21 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20101021 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101021  1200   101022  0000   101022  1200   101023  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.0N  22.5W   10.8N  24.6W   11.5N  26.7W   12.4N  28.8W
BAMD    10.0N  22.5W   10.9N  24.4W   12.2N  26.3W   14.3N  28.2W
BAMM    10.0N  22.5W   10.9N  24.4W   12.0N  26.1W   13.4N  27.8W
LBAR    10.0N  22.5W   11.2N  24.3W   12.9N  26.0W   14.9N  27.6W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          30KTS          33KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          30KTS          33KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101023  1200   101024  1200   101025  1200   101026  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.6N  31.0W   16.4N  35.2W   19.2N  38.5W   20.8N  41.4W
BAMD    17.0N  30.4W   23.0N  35.7W   25.2N  37.7W   25.7N  37.3W
BAMM    15.0N  29.6W   19.1N  33.7W   22.7N  36.6W   23.7N  38.1W
LBAR    17.2N  29.0W   20.8N  30.3W   21.1N  29.5W   19.8N  27.5W
SHIP        34KTS          26KTS          22KTS          20KTS
DSHP        34KTS          26KTS          22KTS          20KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.0N LONCUR =  22.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =   9.8N LONM12 =  20.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =   9.6N LONM24 =  18.5W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   15KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

Posted: **Thu Oct 21, 2010 12:57 pm**

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

Posted: **Thu Oct 21, 2010 2:59 pm**

If 90L formed, I am going to be really amazed. The Cape Verde region is not that favorable this time around. With La Nina, it is possible. La Nina seems to be more favorable to Cape Verde like we saw in September.

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