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New MCD for SE Texas - Watch Issuance Likely:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0017.html

Mesoscale Discussion 0017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 081854Z - 082100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are continuing to slowly intensify, with the issuance of a tornado watch likely in the next 1-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue to intensify across parts of east TX and western LA, mainly along and north of a surface warm front that extends from north of HOU to east of ACT. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints have risen into the mid/upper 60s, with MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg. VAD profiles near the warm front show very strong low-level vertical shear with 0-3km SRH values of 500 and 900 m2/s2 at HGX and LCH.

Thus far, thunderstorms have been elevated with primarily a large hail threat. Recent CAM solutions suggest that continued daytime heating will begin to aid convective development along the immediate warm front to the west of HOU in the next couple of hours, which would potentially have a greater risk of surface-based supercells and an attendant threat of tornadoes - along with large hail and damaging winds. This area is being closely monitored for convective development and potential tornado watch issuance.

..Hart/Gleason.. 01/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:26 pm

I'm confused. The main threat was suppose to be east of us. That plot looks west to right on top of us.

Storm near Montgomery has hail..

The mixing above me right now at the farm is insane

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:49 pm

tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:26 pm

I'm confused. The main threat was suppose to be east of us. That plot looks west to right on top of us.

This is one meteorologist's take on it. The parameters are there for severe weather. Whether it happens or not is yet to be seen. HGX alluded to this in the early morning AFD.

We now have tornado watch until 9pm all over s.e. tx

Tornado Watch up.

Im right smack in the middle of it, along with DJMike...

snowman65 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 2:12 pm Im right smack in the middle of it, along with DJMike...

Yup, I noticed. Growing concerned. Hopefully nothing transpires.

Tornado watches being issued. Personally, I'd watch the radar for bow echos as things get cranked up. Strong winds are a definite possibility.

Popcorn everywhere right now, but hail so far is staying in our northern area.

Further west, the cell just east of Seguin is nasty.

Anyone else notice this is Tornado Watch #1?

Happy New Year (/sarcasm)

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 2:19 pm Anyone else notice this is Tornado Watch #1?

Happy New Year (/sarcasm)

Yeah, I did. Yea for us.

999mb and 69 Dewpoint in January…insane

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 2:21 pm 999mb and 69 Dewpoint in January…insane

And a week from now we will be in hard freeze territory.

In my best Ron Washington voice…. dat da way Texas weather go

EURO onboard with snow next Monday.

Look out to San Antonio. Nasty