Wx Infinity Forums

I would be shocked if the Trinity at Liberty reached a record flood. It's a 3.5 mile wide floodplain and I count a total of 3800' of bridging in 12 spots on the railroad and 4300' in 5 spots for the highway. That's a lot of flow. Most of the rise so far, from 7 to the current 25', was in the narrow channel and bayous. Now it will start spreading out into the full 3.5 mile width, which is why the projected graph really starts to flatten the rise.

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrogr ... gage=lbyt2

Unfortunately it says houses start to flood at 29', and the predicted crest is 30'. Seems like a case where sandbagging might work if you only need a couple of feet.

sambucol wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 10:42 pm The rain can stop.

But it's choosing not to.

5.84 inches for the 3 day event and 8.04 in for the month

Turn around, don't drown.

NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX12688576C26C.FloodWarning.126885979460TX.HGXFLWHGX.447c192450337282afbaf43581114d1e from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 23:15 CST on 01-24-2024
Effective: 22:02 CST on 01-24-2024
Expires: 14:24 CST on 01-27-2024
Event: Flood Warning
Alert:
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall and upstream runoff
continues.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Texas, including the following
counties, Austin, Brazos, Burleson, Colorado, Grimes, Harris,
Houston, Liberty, Madison, Montgomery, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity,
Walker, Waller and Washington.

* WHEN...Until 600 AM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Numerous roads
remain closed due to flooding. Streams continue to rise due to
excess runoff from earlier rainfall in addition to ongoing
precipitation. Some low-water crossings are inundated with water
and may not be passable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 1113 PM CST, Radar indicated continued rainfall. Ongoing
street flooding and elevated creeks, streams and rivers are
being observed. Flooding is already occurring in the warned
area. Between 4 and 13.5 inches of rain have fallen in the
past couple days.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are possible in
the warned area through Thursday morning.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Southeastern College Station, Conroe, Huntsville, Brenham,
Tomball, Cleveland, Navasota, Hempstead, Willis, Prairie
View, Livingston, Madisonville, Bellville, Columbus, Eagle
Lake, Pinehurst, The Woodlands, Apple Springs, Washington and
Hockley.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Instructions: Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe.
Target Area:
Brazos
Burleson

3 day total IMBY, 6.75”. Time to dry out a little.

Picked up exactly one inch overnight, so it looks like I’m gonna end with 7.05”.

And that’s a big oof on the 0z Euro at days 9 and 10, yikes!

Well, that de-escalated quickly. Sun is shining brightly!
I picked up another .86” overnight for a total of 6.76”

The drought is over!!

Theres a chance of light showers on Friday, then after that we get a break. The next big storm system may be around the beginning of February.

6.05 inches in total. Gimme some sun!

Then, I'll have to put down pre-emergence and probably weed killer as well.

Definitely need some sun. Yards are going to be smelly in a day or two otherwise.

don wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 9:42 am Theres a chance of light showers on Friday, then after that we get a break. The next big storm system may be around the beginning of February.


ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_scus_64.png

997 mb low in the Gulf in early February!

Couple that low with cold temps, and we could have a winter precip extravaganza!

Speaking of cold, when are we getting back below 40 ?

Cromagnum you’ll have to wait some time, pattern doesn’t flip back towards cold until the end of the first week of February

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 11:49 am Speaking of cold, when are we getting back below 40 ?

Houston will be this Saturday night and sunday night according to NWS, 44 then 40 for a low. After that, probably early February.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 11:49 am Speaking of cold, when are we getting back below 40 ?

This coming Sunday and Monday mornings for most of us.

Ah you must be talking about morning lows, yeah you wont have to wait too long for that lol

There’s a big difference between the Euro and GFS and their ensembles as well. Euro/EPS is much wetter.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 10:17 am 6.05 inches in total. Gimme some sun!

Then, I'll have to put down pre-emergence and probably weed killer as well.

Yep, it’s time. I already see some bright green weeds amongst the brown grass. I know what I’ll be doing this weekend…

14.55” was the winner between Burton and Brenham

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 2:00 pm 14.55” was the winner between Burton and Brenham

I believe mcheer said someone would definitely get 10”+ when people started to question the strength of this system.