January 2024

[Cromagnum]

Yeah, I love rain and storms! If we’re not gonna have wintry weather then at least let us have rain and storms!

I would like to have honest to goodness summer washouts again — the summers of the aughts were very good with those across the Houston area, you can see notable contrast compared with 2010s and especially 2022/2023.

I remember when I was working in Channelview during the summers of 2001, 2002, and 2003 we would often get very heavy thunderstorms in the afternoon. Haven't seen that with any frequency in a long time.

[Stratton20]

That was an amazing rose bowl game!

[don]

Im fine with rain, but keep that severe stuff far away from here, i never like seeing the cpc mentioning potential that early

I never really worry about severe weather in this part of Texas. Especially where I live. It’s rare.

Believe it or not Harris county ranks not only #1 in Texas but also is one of the top counties (ranks #2) in the nation as a whole when it comes to documented tornadoes. Just since the year 2000 there have been 72 tornadoes recorded in Harris county alone. Of course most of those tornadoes tend to be tropical or weak though.

[tireman4]

Happy New Year! Oregon clocked us. Sigh. We will learn from this

[tireman4]

Some of these bowl matchups are terrible. Sorry but Oregon has no business playing Liberty. I know you’re trying to reward the Cinderella team out there but it makes for a really boring matchup and a waste of one of the premier bowl games.

And as a future Liberty alum, I see your point, but they will learn from this. You could also say FSU had no point in playing Georgia, TCU and Feorgia last year and on and on. It happens.

[Cpv17]

Some of these bowl matchups are terrible. Sorry but Oregon has no business playing Liberty. I know you’re trying to reward the Cinderella team out there but it makes for a really boring matchup and a waste of one of the premier bowl games.

And as a future Liberty alum, I see your point, but they will learn from this. You could also say FSU had no point in playing Georgia, TCU and Feorgia last year and on and on. It happens.

This is different though. Oregon is a well known established power. Most people out there have never even heard of Liberty. I feel like Liberty vs a team along the lines of an SMU or something like that would’ve been a much better game. Liberty has nowhere near the talent Oregon has and it showed. Yeah, they were undefeated but they were undefeated because they played weak competition. It’s like trying to fight someone out of your weight class. Not a fair fight.

[tireman4]

Fair enough. Now, back to weather.

[Cpv17]

The SPC is mentioning tornadoes for us in their latest update and it’s at day 7 in their forecast…yikes! But I’m right on the edge of it in Wharton County. Houston and points east of there will probably get the worst of it with the way it looks now.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 021148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 252 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024

With a progressive pattern in place, today affords us only the
briefest windows of fair weather. Indeed, we can already see lift
ahead of an upper trough over Arizona producing clouds over New
Mexico and West Texas. Pick your favorite satellite band (I went
with water vapor tonight, how about you?) it doesn`t really
matter, it`s there. So, uh, everyone enjoy this nice, seasonably
cool morning we`re going to get.

Towards mid-day, we can expect ridging to have moved on to the
east, and the first leading blobs of mid-level vorticity to be
streaming into the area. Meanwhile, farther down the Texas coast,
we`ll see the beginnings of a coastal low forming up that will
drive the main event tonight. That means increasing clouds
through the afternoon, and PoPs running shortly behind. The first
likelies start to nudge into Burleson County mid-afternoon, and
we`ll see an expansion of the rain shield through the evening, and
traversing Southeast Texas from west to east through the overnight
hours. While some lingering showers may try to hang on through
dawn, rain should be all done by then with the surface low east of
us, and potentially even the upper trough axis, putting us on the
anti-cyclonic advection side of the trough.

I am leaning heavily towards CAMs for the timing on this, as the
globals and even the NAM try to take things a little slower and
keep some rains holding on into Wednesday morning. I...am
doubtful. Our upper jet streak features 130 knot winds, and even
500 mb winds are 70ish knots. We`re working with a progressive
pattern, and I expect mesoscale features will favor speed as the
low develops and takes on more of a frontal structure, focusing
warm sector convection into a quasi-linear system. So, if we get
into Wednesday morning and it`s still raining, then...that`ll be
my bad for misreading the situation.

The speed of the system and the track of the low continue to
bolster my confidence in the idea that for our area, we can
strongly expect a widespread rain shield moving through tonight,
but relatively quickly and with limited rain rates. That`s not to
say rain will be light - we do still look to have some modest
instability, and ample (albeit not anomalously high) moisture to
work with, and over several hours, that`s going to add up. A
widespread half-inch plus seems a solid enough forecast, and I`d
keep an eye on two locations for getting around or more than an
inch. One is farther inland around College Station, Madisonville,
etc; closer to the upper trough and biggest height falls. I`d
check here earlier, before a lot of offshore convection gets going
and cuts off the moisture flow to the inland. The other, then will
be near the coast and really, over the Gulf waters. Once the
surface low spins up and pushes through, this will likely take
over as the hot spot for higher rainfall.

Because the low should stay offshore, so too, should the warm
sector. The big storms of the night are likely to be tens of miles
offshore. But this track looks close enough that we should manage
to get decent enough convection at the coast, particularly below
Galveston Bay, where the forecast low track remains closest to
shore.

Expect a fair, cooler day Wednesday and a chilly Wednesday night
as this disturbance exits stage right and we see some decent
northerly winds in its wake. While chillier, I don`t anticipate it
getting quite as dry immediately after the low passes, considering
its origin in the western Gulf. However, come Wednesday night, it
looks like we`ll get a bit of phasing with a northern stream
trough, and that should force dewpoints down into the upper 20s
and 30s for the inland portion of the area.

Of course, given how quickly this wavetrain is moving right now,
don`t get too used to this. But it will at least hold through the
end of this short term period, and it will be on the long term to
take it from here.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024

The progressive pattern continues into the long range as an active
southern jet stream keeps the forecast relatively unsettled
for the foreseeable future. We will remain between systems on
Thursday, resulting in an overall nice yet cool day with highs
mostly in the upper 50s to low 60s. However, an approaching robust
mid/upper trough over SW CONUS will induce LL pressure falls
across West Texas as sfc high pressure to our north propagates
east. The resulting gradient will gradually increase east to east-
southeast winds on Thursday into Thursday night, becoming quite
breezy by Friday morning. Meanwhile, the aforementioned trough and
the orientation of an UL jet streak will favor large scale
ascent late Thursday into Friday. Deep southerly LL flow on
Friday will surge tropical moisture northward towards SE TX. A sfc
low pressure system is still expected to materialize over our
region on Friday. Still some uncertainty regarding the formation
location and the exact track of the low, which has implications on
wind direction/speed along with whether or not enough instability
occurs to foment thunderstorm development. There does appear to
be some consensus that a low tracking near the coast is more
likely than one that tracks farther inland. Regardless, Friday is
looking rainy, breezy, and downright messy. Best chance of higher
winds and thunderstorms will be near the coast. Although locally
heavy rainfall is possible across most of the CWA, our southern
counties appear to have the best chance of heavy rainfall.
Fortunately, the pattern favors fast moving systems which
mitigates the flood threat. That being said, locally heavy
rainfall totals will be a concern.

Friday`s system quickly departs, yielding to what looks to be a
nice cool weekend. Saturday appears to be the cooler day with
highs in the 55-60 range. Sunday`s outlook features highs in the
low/mid 60s. Both days are expected to feature chilly mornings in
the 30s/40s. But as we enjoy our lovely cool weekend, the next
system will be pushing across SW CONUS, reaching our neck of the
woods by early next week. The current outlook for Monday features
another chance of rain and perhaps thunderstorms. Monday is also
looking warmer with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 543 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024

Initial challenge will be timing the initial, likely somewhat
uneven degradation from VFR to MVFR this morning, as incoming deck
is both moving and growing in patches ahead of the leading edge.
However, high confidence in the broad trend of clouds
overspreading the terminals through the day, with east/northeast
winds increasing to around 10 knots. Rain chances move in from
west to east, peaking in the evening and overnight hours. Winds
will back to more northeasterly through the night as well. Have
VCTS in to sketch out most likely window for a few stray lightning
strikes embedded in the broader rain shield. CIGS continue to
degrade to low MVFR/high IFR late, while rain draws down from west
to east. Some northerly gusts also should be expected for GLS off
the water.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024

Moderate easterly winds are expected today. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms will increase later today, with a good chance of
showers and thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday. Winds and seas will
continue to increase from the east tonight before turning more
northeasterly by Wednesday morning. Small Craft Advisory winds are
possible. Conditions improve on Thursday before another storm
system brings a chance of rain and thunderstorms, along with
increasing winds and seas on Friday. The early outlook for the
weekend features improve conditions. However, another storm system
may impact the region by Monday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 57 43 53 34 / 70 90 0 0
Houston (IAH) 58 45 55 39 / 30 90 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 60 48 55 47 / 20 100 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self

[don]

Time to start watching Monday closely.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough over the central CONUS, with multiple embedded
mid-level shortwave troughs over the southern Plains, is forecast to
move eastward across the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys on Day
4/Friday. Similar to prior systems, low-level mass response should
encourage the northward advance of low-level moisture across the
northern Gulf of Mexico and immediate coastal areas of TX/LA/MS/AL.
While both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong with this
system, current expectations are that appreciable surface-based
instability should struggle to reach very far inland. This will
probably tend to limit the spatial extent of any severe risk over
land Friday afternoon through Friday night from parts of coastal TX
to the central Gulf Coast states. Still, a marginal/isolated severe
risk may exist across these areas, and low severe probabilities may
need to be included in a future outlook. Some severe threat may
persist into Day 5/Saturday across parts of the Southeast as the
upper trough and related surface low/cold front continue quickly
east-northeastward. But, uncertainty regarding sufficient
instability given poor lapse rates and modest low-level moisture
precludes introduction of a severe area at this time.

In the wake of this system, minimal severe potential is evident
across the CONUS for Day 6/Sunday. Medium-range deterministic and
ensemble guidance show remarkably good agreement that another upper
trough will both strengthen and amplify as it ejects across the
southern Plains and Southeast early next week. Impressive wind
fields at low/mid levels should easily support severe thunderstorms
wherever sufficient low-level moisture can advance inland of a
deepening surface low. There is still some uncertainty with both how
quickly rich low-level moisture will be able to return northward
from the Gulf of Mexico into parts of TX and the lower MS Valley,
and how far north it will reach. Regardless, it appears probable
that enough boundary-layer instability will be present/develop on
Day 7/Monday and Monday night over parts of coastal/east TX into LA,
southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle to justify introducing
a 15% severe area. Adjustments to this area will likely be needed in
the coming days as confidence increases in the northward extent of
appreciable low-level moisture. But, given the very strong forecast
shear, supercells and line segments capable of producing both
tornadoes and damaging winds appear possible.This severe threat may
continue farther east into Day 8/Tuesday from parts of FL/GA into
the Carolinas, but too much uncertainty regarding destabilization
currently exists to include a severe delineation across this region.

[don]

We will see 3 storms over the next 6 days. Storm #1 is here, and will start to crank up tonight as a Gulf low develops offshore. Followed by #2 on Friday which triggers another Gulf Low. There could be a heavy rain threat on Friday depending on the track of the low. With storm #3 on Monday.There could be a regional severe weather outbreak along the gulf coast with Mondays storm.We will need to watch that one closely.

[DoctorMu]

The forecast for January hasn't really changed. It's going to take 2-3 weeks of snowpack north of us to set the stage for anything wintry here.

The polar vortex is a bit loose AO and NAO will go negative in the last half of the month. Then, it's just roll the dice in SETX.

[don]

The forecast for January hasn't really changed. It's going to take 2-3 weeks of snowpack north of us to set the stage for anything wintry here.

The polar vortex is a bit loose AO and NAO will go negative in the last half of the month. Then, it's just roll the dice in SETX.

I agree , we really need a snowpack to buildup first.

[Cpv17]

And a -EPO imo.

[snowman65]

even if there is a good snowpack, all the stars must still align.. we just dont live in the right area for that, unfortunately.

[Stratton20]

The Euro weeklies are continuing to advertise a chilly regime all the way through february, if the PV remains weak and or stretches/ splits, combine that with a fresh snowpack and it could get real interesting down here, still can’t believe the record low US snowpack, absolutely insane seeing a huge portion of the US snow starved

[Cpv17]

even if there is a good snowpack, all the stars must still align.. we just dont live in the right area for that, unfortunately.

I haven’t seen a good -EPO pop since the late October cold blast we had.

[don]

And a -EPO imo.

Yep, we need arctic air to dislodge from Siberia and into our source region.

[Cromagnum]

So cool/cold, but not frigid rest of the winter. And likely rainy often.

[Cpv17]

The -AO and -NAO combo isn’t enough to give us anything really cold.