January 2024

[MontgomeryCoWx]

If I’ve learned anything about weather year to year in the gulf coast is when you usually have one extreme, expect the other within 2 years.

Rubber band effect.

[don]

The pattern the models are showing over the first half of the month looks very active. I'm personally more concerned with flooding and severe weather than I am of any winter storm down here.( I'm specifically watching the storm system around the 8th as models are showing an environment favorable for tornadoes.)

The storm track looks to stay too far north and progressive for wintry precip down here alone with marginal temps at best.(We need more snowpack to our north) This is why I sometimes say a SE ridge can be a good thing for us. As it forces the trough to dig further south and slow down. We just don't want the SE ridge to be too strong. Just don't expect any wintry precip in the next 2 weeks. Doesn't mean things wont change during the 2nd half of the month though or into February.

[Stratton20]

Not the optimistic message i was hoping to hear with this pattern

[Cpv17]

The pattern the models are showing over the first half of the month looks very active. I'm personally more concerned with flooding and severe weather than I am of any winter storm down here.( I'm specifically watching the storm system around the 8th as models are showing an environment favorable for tornadoes.)

The storm track looks to stay too far north and progressive for wintry precip down here alone with marginal at best temps. This is why I sometimes say a SE ridge can be a good thing for us. As it forces the trough to dig further south and slow down. We just don't want the SE ridge to be too strong. Just don't expect any wintry precip in the next 2 weeks. Doesn't mean things wont change during the 2nd half of the month though or into February.

I think it’s good to build a snowpack to our north first anyway. Glad the models are showing an active pattern. I’m still in a moderate drought here.

[Stratton20]

That storm track needs to come further south, I do see the SE ridge becoming prevalent in the ensembles , fingers crossed for more surprises, we dont need flooding and severe weather

[Cpv17]

Some of these bowl matchups are terrible. Sorry but Oregon has no business playing Liberty. I know you’re trying to reward the Cinderella team out there but it makes for a really boring matchup and a waste of one of the premier bowl games.

[Cpv17]

That storm track needs to come further south, I do see the SE ridge becoming prevalent in the ensembles , fingers crossed for more surprises, we dont need flooding and severe weather

Yeah, I love rain and storms! If we’re not gonna have wintry weather then at least let us have rain and storms! I will say though, I don’t really care for light rain. That’s just a nuisance for me.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 rain is fine, I dont mind a couple of inches, but my disdain for heavy rainfall started with harvey, I dont hate rain, I just dont like the flooding threat that always comes with these events

[Cromagnum]

Hoping Washington destroys Texas later, but that's gonna be a late finish on a night I need to readjust my clock from staying up late so I can get back to work routine hours.

[Cpv17]

CPV17 rain is fine, I dont mind a couple of inches, but my disdain for heavy rainfall started with harvey, I dont hate rain, I just dont like the flooding threat that always comes with these events

I live out in the country away from concrete. I had 25” from Harvey here and still wasn’t even close to flooding. I’m sure if it would’ve came all at once instead of over a 3-4 day period then it would’ve been a different story though. I’d honestly love a good 10-15” of rain over one or two days though.

[Cpv17]

Hoping Washington destroys Texas later, but that's gonna be a late finish on a night I need to readjust my clock from staying up late so I can get back to work routine hours.

Of course you’d say that. I fear you will be correct though. Washington has the best passing attack in college football and Texas doesn’t defend the pass well and they don’t have any elite edge rushers to put pressure on the QB. I think this is a bad matchup for Texas and I feel it could get ugly pretty fast. I do think Texas would have a better chance against Michigan though but not Washington. Imo it should’ve been Texas vs Michigan and Alabama vs Washington. I’m not even gonna watch the game. I’ll be watching the Rockets game instead lol

[don]

Not the optimistic message i was hoping to hear with this pattern

Keep in mind I'm only referring to the next 2 weeks or so. Who knows how the 2nd half of the month will turn out. One good thing is that the storm systems should allow a snowpack to build up to our north.

[user:null]

I live out in the country away from concrete. I had 25” from Harvey here and still wasn’t even close to flooding. I’m sure if it would’ve came all at once instead of over a 3-4 day period then it would’ve been a different story though. I’d honestly love a good 10-15” of rain over one or two days though.

The 30 inch+ Harvey bullseye was really focused on central Houston, and totals would have been even higher than what was already observed had the storm not made more extents eastward into Golden Triangle area.

As far as concrete, dense, urban development in the manner seen in places like NYC, Hong Kong, etc would actually be more sustainable — it houses more people with less paved over impervious cover/concrete. However, the Greater Houston sprawl cannot be reeled in unless there are policy changes at the state level (see: TXDOT controlled by TX state legislature, MUD districts, etc).

[user:null]

Yeah, I love rain and storms! If we’re not gonna have wintry weather then at least let us have rain and storms!

I would like to have honest to goodness summer washouts again — the summers of the aughts were very good with those across the Houston area, you can see notable contrast compared with 2010s and especially 2022/2023.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Not the optimistic message i was hoping to hear with this pattern

We were never getting winter weather before 1/18-/1/20 timeframe. I’m not sure what you were expecting but this pattern is awesome in terms of setting the stage for later.

SETX will have it shots in week 3-7 from right now.

[don]

SPC already mentioning next Monday.

Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough
will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday
across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over
the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of
low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS
Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There
are still some timing differences in the progression of this
pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still,
both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe
threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the
lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will
be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and
possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater
predictability.

[Cpv17]

Not the optimistic message i was hoping to hear with this pattern

We were never getting winter weather before 1/18-/1/20 timeframe. I’m not sure what you were expecting but this pattern is awesome in terms of setting the stage for later.

SETX will have it shots in week 3-7 from right now.

Getting a good snowpack to our N will be important imo. Hopefully that’s what will happen over the next couple weeks.

[Cpv17]

Yeah, I love rain and storms! If we’re not gonna have wintry weather then at least let us have rain and storms!

I would like to have honest to goodness summer washouts again — the summers of the aughts were very good with those across the Houston area, you can see notable contrast compared with 2010s and especially 2022/2023.

I think the wettest summer that I can remember was 2007. It was great!

[Stratton20]

Im fine with rain, but keep that severe stuff far away from here, i never like seeing the cpc mentioning potential that early

[Cpv17]

Im fine with rain, but keep that severe stuff far away from here, i never like seeing the cpc mentioning potential that early

I never really worry about severe weather in this part of Texas. Especially where I live. It’s rare.