Wx Infinity Forums

This thread is to discuss all about how the waters are in the GOM,Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic.

Surely,the MDR area is above average.Lets see how they are when the season gets into full gear.

Here is the Gulf of Mexico graphic of sst's.Right now for the most part the GOM is cold with the exception of the loop current.I imagine that it will start to warm rapidly by late April and May.

MDR is a bathtube right now.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/nat ... _oper0.png

I remember Mark Kilroy Case and I was only a child that time.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:MDR toasty, but GOMEX still in the fridge. I smell a big Florida to New England season.

Its April Ed... I recorded 88F up near Willis today.....give it some time.....I dont smell any one area to have a big year. But I will say this, Texas will see something this year.....

Everyone forgets that its been 27 yrs now since we had a major...Ike was a cat 2...Alicia was a 3 albeit barely and thats open to debate. You would also have to say that its been a long time since Texas coast as a whole had anything above a Cat2..discounting Rita of course....Back in the 40's and 50's we saw some strong storms hit the Texas coast

Paul wrote:
Everyone forgets that its been 27 yrs now since we had a major...Ike was a cat 2...Alicia was a 3 albeit barely and thats open to debate. You would also have to say that its been a long time since Texas coast as a whole had anything above a Cat2..discounting Rita of course....Back in the 40's and 50's we saw some strong storms hit the Texas coast

There were 3 planes flying in Rita up to landfall, and none of the planes could find Cat 3 winds in the 6-8 hours before landfall.

wxman57 wrote:

Paul wrote:
Everyone forgets that its been 27 yrs now since we had a major...Ike was a cat 2...Alicia was a 3 albeit barely and thats open to debate. You would also have to say that its been a long time since Texas coast as a whole had anything above a Cat2..discounting Rita of course....Back in the 40's and 50's we saw some strong storms hit the Texas coast

There were 3 planes flying in Rita up to landfall, and none of the planes could find Cat 3 winds in the 6-8 hours before landfall.

I agree Rita was weakening rapidly after bombing out with that crazy pressure..880's...I was stuck in East Bernard on a two lane country road with all of my fellow Pearlandians and their dogs when I heard that news. Made me stick out the wait for another hour or so then the cats threw up all over my back seat and the wife was threatening me with divorce. Turned around at that point...

I wonder why post report did not downgrade her. Any rate I wouldnt rule out any one location at this point...

Those people in Kemah will regret rebuilding in that town. IMO, the farther away from the coast the better unless you have a sea wall.....my parents on the West End will not take my advice and move in town. There was a referendum in Galveston to sea wall the entire island at one point but you would still flood from the bay side on the west end. If Ike didnt take that jog NW 6 hours out their house would have been gone. They seem not to realize that.


that goes for NO as well. Great city but smells bad, located below sea level on the coast with a hefty surge mulitiplier. Doesn't make sense to me. With the Chadeluer Islands gone with Katrina, they have no protection what so ever. The dikes can even hold back a cat 2....

ok, rant over...I have been hibernating for awhile...Sorry for the long post....

Paul wrote:
I agree Rita was weakening rapidly after bombing out with that crazy pressure..880's...I was stuck in East Bernard on a two lane country road with all of my fellow Pearlandians and their dogs when I heard that news. Made me stick out the wait for another hour or so then the cats threw up all over my back seat and the wife was threatening me with divorce. Turned around at that point...

I wonder why post report did not downgrade her. Any rate I wouldn't rule out any one location at this point...

NHC said that though they had considerable resources inside Rita just prior to landfall, they could not be 100% certain that there wasn't a small pocket of Cat 3 winds somewhere, so they left it a Cat 3 at landfall. I guess that's true for about any storm, though. I think they didn't want to take any more heat after downgrading Katrina to a Cat 3 earlier. Rita was sucking cool/dry air on its western side prior to landfall. That's why we hardly got any wind in Houston/Galveston from it.

wxman57 wrote:

Paul wrote:
I agree Rita was weakening rapidly after bombing out with that crazy pressure..880's...I was stuck in East Bernard on a two lane country road with all of my fellow Pearlandians and their dogs when I heard that news. Made me stick out the wait for another hour or so then the cats threw up all over my back seat and the wife was threatening me with divorce. Turned around at that point...

I wonder why post report did not downgrade her. Any rate I wouldn't rule out any one location at this point...

NHC said that though they had considerable resources inside Rita just prior to landfall, they could not be 100% certain that there wasn't a small pocket of Cat 3 winds somewhere, so they left it a Cat 3 at landfall. I guess that's true for about any storm, though. I think they didn't want to take any more heat after downgrading Katrina to a Cat 3 earlier. Rita was sucking cool/dry air on its western side prior to landfall. That's why we hardly got any wind in Houston/Galveston from it.

I don't know if I'd say we hardly had any wind. I think there were reports of windows blown out downtown and I know our 5 year old brandford pear tree in our front yard was leaning to one side and branches and leaves were everywhere in the neighborhood.

Candy Cane wrote:

wxman57 wrote:

Paul wrote:
I agree Rita was weakening rapidly after bombing out with that crazy pressure..880's...I was stuck in East Bernard on a two lane country road with all of my fellow Pearlandians and their dogs when I heard that news. Made me stick out the wait for another hour or so then the cats threw up all over my back seat and the wife was threatening me with divorce. Turned around at that point...

I wonder why post report did not downgrade her. Any rate I wouldn't rule out any one location at this point...

NHC said that though they had considerable resources inside Rita just prior to landfall, they could not be 100% certain that there wasn't a small pocket of Cat 3 winds somewhere, so they left it a Cat 3 at landfall. I guess that's true for about any storm, though. I think they didn't want to take any more heat after downgrading Katrina to a Cat 3 earlier. Rita was sucking cool/dry air on its western side prior to landfall. That's why we hardly got any wind in Houston/Galveston from it.

I don't know if I'd say we hardly had any wind. I think there were reports of windows blown out downtown and I know our 5 year old brandford pear tree in our front yard was leaning to one side and branches and leaves were everywhere in the neighborhood.

those windows were blown out because of the location of the Chase tower and Chase building. They created a wind tunnel. Once one window went the rest followed. I beleive we lost 300 something windows....

Candy Cane wrote:

Paul wrote: I don't know if I'd say we hardly had any wind. I think there were reports of windows blown out downtown and I know our 5 year old Bradford pear tree in our front yard was leaning to one side and branches and leaves were everywhere in the neighborhood.

those windows were blown out because of the location of the Chase tower and Chase building. They created a wind tunnel. Once one window went the rest followed. I believe we lost 300 something windows....

We were discussing Rita, not Ike. Rita produced only very minimal TS winds across Houston - 35-45 mph. We had stronger than that with that behind that cold front a few weeks ago. Here's a plot of Rita's wind field across SE TX:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... nd_mph.pdf

and so it begins.....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

no where but up from here on out.

Paul wrote:and so it begins.....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

no where but up from here on out.

The Caribbean is primed for hurricanes with the warm water. It would be an active spot right now, if it was not for the wind shear. The Gulf of Mexico is hostile for any development. That is due to the cooler winter we had.

Gulf is warming fast, though:

As well as the Caribbean...

ED you owe a lot of people beer from your Ike fiasco.... I think you were still against landfall in Galveston 6 hours out,,,


It is April Ed, GOM ssts this early have nothing to do with August and Sept. They have been on the rise every week. Are they going to go down or something? .....besides..you should be more concerned with the MDR region.

Also I like Shiner so I will take your bet.....You forget we havent had a major hurricane in Houston in 27 years...

~Sigh~. Don't cross that line again Ed. Thank You!

its going to bad year in the GOM if something tracks into I am afraid.

well if this map doesnt put your plans in high gear it should. Almost all of the GOM could support a major 3 or above...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL