Mesoscale Discussion 2292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Areas affected...Parts of east-central/southeast TX into extreme
southwest LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302152Z - 302315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado and locally damaging gusts may
still evolve late this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Convection persists this afternoon near the upper TX
coast, while storms have also recently developed near the western
edge of deeper moisture across parts of east-central TX. Thus far,
convection has struggled to become organized, despite the presence
of rich low-level moisture and favorable wind profiles. This is
likely due to widespread cloudiness across the region, with weak
low-level lapse rates where convection is ongoing.
While MLCINH is not prohibitive for surface-based storms (largely
due to the rich low-level moisture), the short-term potential for
organized storms remains uncertain, with a continued tendency for
convection to remain slightly elevated as it moves through a poor
lapse rate environment where clouds remain entrenched. However, with
favorable deep-layer shear and 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 (greater
closer to the coast) across the region, a transient supercell and/or
a stronger line segment cannot be ruled out through the remainder of
the afternoon, with an attendant threat of a tornado and/or locally
damaging gusts.
With the threat expected to remain rather isolated through the
afternoon, short-term watch issuance is unlikely. Some uptick
remains possible sometime this evening, especially into far
southeast TX/southwest LA, and trends will continue to be monitored
for an increase in storm organization/intensity, given the favorable
wind profiles and low-level moisture in place.
..Dean.. 11/30/2023
...Please see
www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
Bust happen, the weather is very hard to forecast. They weren't forecasting Armageddon, it was a conditional chance of tornadoes. And that's a good thing it didn't happen. Only thing that sucks is the rain was not as widespread because the warm front didn't move pass I-10.
.