It's been dumping buckets in Lake Jackson
November 2023
Not surprisingly after all the models were showing north of I10 the majority of heavy rain is south of I10. So far i think we've picked up around .20" in Fairfield/Cypress. I was hoping for a solid inch or so today.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Just a steady light/ moderate rain here
I dont any rain out of this. Im fishing Sabine Lake tomorrow and I dont want the rain the mess things up. Its been on 
lately...lol
lately...lolWe’re starting to get some training rain here in Sienna. Decent amount of thunder and heavy rain in the last hour or so.
Only .15” here so far.
Yes, was expecting a solid 1-2 inches here.
The dew point here is up to 68. It was 54 at midnight. But the rise is leveling off now… window is closing for anything significant this far north.
It’s amazing that in one single SPC update they flip from mostly north of I-10 to south of I-10. A complete flip-flop from one update to the next.
If I did that my boss would fire me.
Yes, was expecting a solid 1-2 inches here.
The dew point here is up to 68. It was 54 at midnight. But the rise is leveling off now… window is closing for anything significant this far north.
It’s amazing that in one single SPC update they flip from mostly north of I-10 to south of I-10. A complete flip-flop from one update to the next.
If I did that my boss would fire me.
We have received .24 at White Oak Bayou and Fairbanks N Houston.
A MCD was issued for NE Texas awhile ago.
I would not be surprised to see another one for the Brazos Valley coming up. It may be another “watch unlikely” type of discussion but some storms are trying to get going along I-35 towards Waco down to Giddings.
I would not be surprised to see another one for the Brazos Valley coming up. It may be another “watch unlikely” type of discussion but some storms are trying to get going along I-35 towards Waco down to Giddings.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
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- Location: Humble, Texas
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Collin Myers
@collinmyerswx
·
10m
2:50pm Radar - #Houston & SE Texas:
Light to moderate thunderstorms continue.
Low instability, a mess of rain, and a shrinking warm sector are all limiting further development.
Still no Tornado Watch.
We’ll see how this afternoon progresses. So far, so good.
@collinmyerswx
·
10m
2:50pm Radar - #Houston & SE Texas:
Light to moderate thunderstorms continue.
Low instability, a mess of rain, and a shrinking warm sector are all limiting further development.
Still no Tornado Watch.
We’ll see how this afternoon progresses. So far, so good.
I think the event is pretty well over down here to be honest.
Next…
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
So far this has turned into another bust.
One of coworkers posted on chat “This is why I came into the office anyway. They have cried wolf too many times now”
Another one said: “I think the weather people got a lot of clicks and shares yesterday”
One of coworkers posted on chat “This is why I came into the office anyway. They have cried wolf too many times now”
Another one said: “I think the weather people got a lot of clicks and shares yesterday”
Sun is finally coming out a lil bit over here now. A lil too late.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Mesoscale Discussion 2292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Areas affected...Parts of east-central/southeast TX into extreme
southwest LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302152Z - 302315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado and locally damaging gusts may
still evolve late this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Convection persists this afternoon near the upper TX
coast, while storms have also recently developed near the western
edge of deeper moisture across parts of east-central TX. Thus far,
convection has struggled to become organized, despite the presence
of rich low-level moisture and favorable wind profiles. This is
likely due to widespread cloudiness across the region, with weak
low-level lapse rates where convection is ongoing.
While MLCINH is not prohibitive for surface-based storms (largely
due to the rich low-level moisture), the short-term potential for
organized storms remains uncertain, with a continued tendency for
convection to remain slightly elevated as it moves through a poor
lapse rate environment where clouds remain entrenched. However, with
favorable deep-layer shear and 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 (greater
closer to the coast) across the region, a transient supercell and/or
a stronger line segment cannot be ruled out through the remainder of
the afternoon, with an attendant threat of a tornado and/or locally
damaging gusts.
With the threat expected to remain rather isolated through the
afternoon, short-term watch issuance is unlikely. Some uptick
remains possible sometime this evening, especially into far
southeast TX/southwest LA, and trends will continue to be monitored
for an increase in storm organization/intensity, given the favorable
wind profiles and low-level moisture in place.
..Dean.. 11/30/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Areas affected...Parts of east-central/southeast TX into extreme
southwest LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302152Z - 302315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado and locally damaging gusts may
still evolve late this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Convection persists this afternoon near the upper TX
coast, while storms have also recently developed near the western
edge of deeper moisture across parts of east-central TX. Thus far,
convection has struggled to become organized, despite the presence
of rich low-level moisture and favorable wind profiles. This is
likely due to widespread cloudiness across the region, with weak
low-level lapse rates where convection is ongoing.
While MLCINH is not prohibitive for surface-based storms (largely
due to the rich low-level moisture), the short-term potential for
organized storms remains uncertain, with a continued tendency for
convection to remain slightly elevated as it moves through a poor
lapse rate environment where clouds remain entrenched. However, with
favorable deep-layer shear and 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 (greater
closer to the coast) across the region, a transient supercell and/or
a stronger line segment cannot be ruled out through the remainder of
the afternoon, with an attendant threat of a tornado and/or locally
damaging gusts.
With the threat expected to remain rather isolated through the
afternoon, short-term watch issuance is unlikely. Some uptick
remains possible sometime this evening, especially into far
southeast TX/southwest LA, and trends will continue to be monitored
for an increase in storm organization/intensity, given the favorable
wind profiles and low-level moisture in place.
..Dean.. 11/30/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
Looks like Stratton was right after all...
I prefer the late afternoon and evening setups with a lot of sun throughout the day for severe storms but we rarely get that around here.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2.5 inches in my rain gauge which I will gladly take.
The dew point here stopped rising at about 11-11:30. In fact it has dropped some since 2. Once I saw that level off I knew it was a bust up here.
Only 0.24” so far. Pitiful compared to those QPF forecasts…
Only 0.24” so far. Pitiful compared to those QPF forecasts…
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