November 2023

[djmike]

Made it to 32 in the triangle. Brrr

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 021148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
648 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2023

Much of the area should awake to near or below freezing temperatures
this morning, with clear skies overnight having allowed for
effective cooling. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for the
northern and northeastern zones through 9AM CDT, where subfreezing
morning temperatures should be fairly widespread. A few localized
subfreezing values remain possible elsewhere.

A pattern shift will begin today as surface high pressure shifts
further to the east, paving the way for the redevelopment of an
onshore flow pattern as we close out the week and approach the
weekend. That being said, this change will come fairly gradually and
a cool and generally pleasant day remains in the forecast today as
highs should mostly remain in the 60s. Overnight lows, aided by weak
but nonetheless impactful WAA, will settle into the 40s to lower
50s. A continuation of this trend can be expected on Friday as highs
return to the mid 70s for most locations, while building cloud cover
will help keep lows in the mid to upper 50s for most of the area
heading into the weekend. With a slow return of moisture and a lack
of large-scale forcing, the immediate forecast remains rain-free.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2023

The warming trend continues over the weekend due to surface high
pressure to our east inducing a steady dose of onshore flow. High
temperatures on Saturday will reach the upper 70s/low 80s, then
we`ll be firmly in the low 80s for Sunday...and the warming trend
doesn`t stop there! There are some rain chances to talk about though
for those of you along the coast. Due to the onshore flow, PW values
will reach the 1.2"-1.4" range by early Saturday. An upper level low
moving through northern Mexico will provide some PVA, which will
give us the lift needed to generate some isolated showers along and
off the coast over the weekend. Rain chances remain around or less
than 10% further inland due to less favorable amounts of moisture.
That upper level low also induces southwesterly flow aloft, which
increases 850mb temperatures to their 99th to MAX percentiles
(NAEFS/GEFS) going into early next week. That means we`ll see
temperatures reach the mid to upper 80s beginning Monday and
likely persisting through Wednesday. Southwesterly flow aloft
decreasing PW values along with a combination of upper level
confluence and convergence leads to PoPs dropping back below 10%
going into early next week.

Now about the next cold front...let me just be up front (pun
intended) and say that as much as I want it to happen...it`s not
looking too favorable at the moment. We have an initial shortwave
trough sweeping across the Northern Plains that generates a
surface low late Sunday that moves due east into the NE CONUS by
midweek and keeps the associated cold front well to our north.
There is another shortwave trough that moves through the
Northern/Central Plains towards midweek that kinda gives the
front a southward push, but at this point the parent surface low
is in eastern Canada. As a result, even if the front does manage
to push through, it`ll be the verrrry tail end of it...so don`t
expect to see temperatures anywhere close to those experienced
recently from the previous cold front.

Deterministic models are a bit bullish on timing with either an end
of the week FROPA...or not at all. GEFS ensemble has more members on
the above normal side of guidance, while the Euro ensemble still
has quite a few members on the below normal side of guidance at
the end of next week. Based on model trends though, I did bump up
temperatures at the tail end of the period since the cold front
doesn`t look to push through within the current timeframe of the
long term. This is one of those times that I hope I`m wrong
because I`d rather not spend an extended period of time in the
80s in November...but we were in the 80s for the first 11 days of
November last year, so it`s not entirely unprecedented. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2023

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period,
with light ESE winds developing by the early afternoon. A gradual
return of moisture with the resumption of SE to ESE flow will
allow for clouds to slowly build back into the area through
tonight, though cloud cover will remain sparse for now. Winds
again become light and variable overnight.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Nov 2 2023

Light northeasterly winds will gradually become easterly by late
Thursday and southeasterly over the weekend with surface high
pressure pushing out further eastward. Seas will see a subsequent
downward trend through the rest of the week down into the 2 to 4
foot range prevailing into next week. Expect light to occasionally
moderate onshore flow to persist throughout most of next week.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 46 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 67 47 75 56 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 60 74 67 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195-196-198-200.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Batiste

[jasons2k]

Made it to 39 here. The upcoming weekend looks great. Lows in the 60’s, highs in 70’s with southerly flow. You can bet I’ll be outside this weekend, probably grilling something.

Update: this morning was the third earliest freeze on record for Conroe, the local ice box.

[DoctorMu]

31.5 low here IMBY. It's warming up rapidly with temps in the upper 40s. Another beautiful day.

I'm not looking forward to 80s and 60s after Saturday, but I expected overperformance of the cold then a large warmup.

Enjoying the good stuff while it lasts.

There's a lot of disagreement about the next robust FROPA. Euro has a cold front entering SETX about the 10. The GEPS ensemble agrees. GFS has no front. CMC is in between. Regardless. most of next week will be warm.

[user:null]

Made it to 39 here. The upcoming weekend looks great. Lows in the 60’s, highs in 70’s with southerly flow. You can bet I’ll be outside this weekend, probably grilling something.

Update: this morning was the third earliest freeze on record for Conroe, the local ice box.

Much of Houston area safe from the freeze. And yes, the Conroe temp record location seems to get colder than surrounding areas. Just like Crestview in FL.

Looking much warmer going further into the month.

[Stratton20]

I see 80 at most for the rest of the month, near normal to may be slightly above normal at most, but november will be the last above normal month we see for quite a long time

[Pas_Bon]

I see 80 at most for the rest of the month, near normal to may be slightly above normal at most, but november will be the last above normal month we see for quite a long time

Yeah, I’m noticing a forecast high of 87° next Wednesday. Ugh

[tireman4]

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Nov 2 2023

VFR prevailing through the 18Z TAF cycle. Light ESE winds continue
this afternoon. Return of onshore flow will allow moisture to
filter back into the area, resulting in cloud development tonight.
Expect cloud cover to remain FEW to SCT through the period. Winds
will become light and variable overnight.

&&

[Stratton20]

The 12z Euro has another decent front in about 8-9 days

[DoctorMu]

The 12z Euro has another decent front in about 8-9 days

Yep - I posted about the EURO FROPA above.

The GFS long-range is trash - I would ignore it.

[Cpv17]

Hmmm, the EPS actually has a decent signal for rain. Interesting.

GEFS doesn’t look too bad either.

[Ptarmigan]

We could use some rain.

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane Otis Causes Catastrophic Damage in Acapulco, Mexico
https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/hurric ... lco-mexico

Hurricane Otis had a gust of 205 mph!

[Cpv17]

Overnight models have came in looking even more interesting for rain.

[jasons2k]

Looking forward to a beautiful, mild weekend. The extended forecast looks great to me. I’m perfectly fine with 70’s & 80’s, any time of year. Sunroof weather.

[Stratton20]

Anything above 70 degrees is disgusting lol, given the summer we had, even 80 degrees feels like an inferno, but. i do love sunny and blue skies!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

low to mid 70s is fine if there is no humidity and a breeze. Anything above that can go pound sand dry or not.

[jasons2k]

Weaklings. I’m adding more reinforcements to the Red River wall.

[DoctorMu]

The highs aren't the issue. Lows of mid-60s or above for November are unacceptable. DP will be too high.

The Euro is still on board some cooler air around the 10th. We'll see.

[Stratton20]

CMC , EURO and the GFS all develop a coastal low around the 11th bringing some decent rains into the area with cooler temps