November 2023

[snowman65]

I'll be in Plano for Thanksgiving. I hope its at least cold there.

[don]

The drought is even worse in Louisiana and Mississippi.

[Cpv17]

I think most of us were expecting at least one round of heavy rains with this system. The forecast back on Friday was calling for thunderstorms with this event and I never heard one rumble of thunder or saw any lightning bolts today. So for me personally, it’s kind of a bust. And where are the 25-35mph winds they were talking about?

[don]

To each their own... I know not everybody received a lot of rain,but theirs big swaths of 2-3+ inch rainfall amounts over the area.I'll gladly take that considering how dry its been.Regardless if it comes down heavy or lite.But i also had my expectations in check by the weekend.¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(Also while some model runs showed pretty high rainfall amounts, "drought busting" rainfall was never part of the forecast. There's a difference between forecast models and the forecast the WPC/NWS actually put out.Lower your expectations...)

[jasons2k]

I think most of us were expecting at least one round of heavy rains with this system. The forecast back on Friday was calling for thunderstorms with this event and I never heard one rumble of thunder or saw any lightning bolts today. So for me personally, it’s kind of a bust. And where are the 25-35mph winds they were talking about?

Yeah I was expecting a solid 3-5” based on last week’s models and the WPC maps, with even higher totals towards the coast. I barely topped 2”
And I was certainly expecting more on today than what we saw.
Not a total bust but still a bust in my book. A spade is a spade.

[Stratton20]

At this point ill believe heavy rain when i see it falling from the sky, very hard to take model projections seriously anymore

[DoctorMu]

I thought the QPF in the NW here was overrated a bit.

0.35 in today, 0.75 inches overall. Good enough for me. Give us the heavy rain in the Spring and Summer, when we actually need it in the Brazos Valley.

Sunny, mild weather until the Saturday and Monday projected fronts.

[DoctorMu]

The set up was just more offshore than originally predicted. No biggie - I'm glad the rain ended. We're flying to DC this week and the weather for flying and the visit look really good.

Besides, the set-up for Thanksgiving week is looking more interesting. We've just a jet stream dip next week. It's a GO for Alaskan air. It will probably slide east but "opinions vary." We could be looking at a slide down the Rockies with the dual cold fronts I mentioned. It's looking like the second bit of cold energy could be headed toward us.

There will be a snowpack building. If we can keep the cold air around awhile and pile up some snow pack, December and beyond could get interesting around here.


GFS slides the cold weather farther east. Canadian continues to hang in there.

[Cpv17]

The set up was just more offshore than originally predicted. No biggie - I'm glad the rain ended. We're flying to DC this week and the weather for flying and the visit look really good.

Besides, the set-up for Thanksgiving week is looking more interesting. We've just a jet stream dip next week. It's a GO for Alaskan air. It will probably slide east but "opinions vary." We could be looking at a slide down the Rockies with the dual cold fronts I mentioned. It's looking like the second bit of cold energy could be headed toward us.

There will be a snowpack building. If we can keep the cold air around awhile and pile up some snow pack, December and beyond could get interesting around here.


GFS slides the cold weather farther east. Canadian continues to hang in there.

The CPC has the cold air going more towards us than off to the east.

[Stratton20]

CPC is going with the CMC and EURO solutions, i feel like the CMC might have the best handle with this cold airmass, it has done surprisingly well the last few years with handiling cold air masses, definitely think the GFS is out to lunch

[Ptarmigan]

A cool Thanksgiving would be nice.

[Stratton20]

Interesting setup on the GFS and Euro, both have a significant trough diving down and becoming cut off as it digs down into mexico, cold air is in place but not cold enough ( temps in mid 40’s)for anything more than rain, that would be a good setup for a winter storm in the state if this was in december or january

[tireman4]

I would be remiss not to remember Gordon Lightfoot (who died this past May at the age of 84) this November. Amazing musician, his timeless songs have lasted so long. One particular is about the infamous gales that happen in Great Lakes region, in November. The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald is a classic and on May 2, 2023, at 3 p.m. the Mariners' Church of Detroit tolled its bell 30 times; 29 times in memory of the crew of the Fitzgerald, and a 30th time in memory of Lightfoot, who died at age 84, on May 1, 2023.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 141155
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
555 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 219 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023

The coastal surface low and mid/upper level disturbance that brought
widespread rain on Monday are located already well offshore.
However, scattered light rain continues to develop and move from
west to east early this morning. This is in response to a mid to
upper level disturbance/vort maxes, currently centered over north
central TX per latest Water Vapor satellite imagery. With residual
moisture and enough forcing, expect light rain through at least
mid/late morning as the upper disturbance shifts east and PVA
decreases over SE TX. Then, a drier and warmer day can be expected
with partly cloudy skies, slowly clearing from the west. Highs will
generally climb from the upper 60s to low 70s. Mostly clear skies
and light winds will lead to patchy fog and a cooler night with
overnight lows from the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A dry Wednesday is anticipated as the upper ridge builds over the
Southern Plains. Diurnal heating and mostly sunny skies will result
in normal temperatures for mid November standards. Afternoon
temperatures will generally range into the low to mid 70s. Overnight
lows mainly in the 50s.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023

Although a weak front will push through on Thursday, rain is not
expected at this time given how little moisture and lift will be
available that day. Benign conditions will prevail Friday into
Saturday as mid to upper level ridging dominates the local weather
pattern. On Sunday, ridging overhead will begin to weaken as a mid
to upper level trough swings through the Four Corners region.
Onshore flow will be transporting low level moisture, increasing
our local PWs to around 1.0-1.4 inches by Sunday night. A few
disturbances ahead of the trough will move overhead and could tap
into this moisture and result in isolated to scattered showers
during the day and night. An additional rise in moisture can be
expected Monday ahead of the next cold front, currently progged
to push across Southeast Texas sometime Monday afternoon or
evening. As a consequence, the chance for showers and possible
isolated thunderstorms will increase on Monday. Models also show
signs of a weak coastal trough possibly developing near the Middle
Texas Coast sometime Sunday night into Monday and could also
contribute to our rain chances during that timeframe.

With respect to daily temperatures, they are expected to warm up
Thursday and Friday with highs in the low 70s on Thursday and in
the mid to upper 70s on Friday. During the weekend and into early
next week, the highs will remain comfortably in the 70s for most
of the region. Once the cold front pushes through, temperatures
will cool down about 10 degrees. The lows for much of the week and
weekend are going to be in the 50s and increase a few degrees on
Sunday night into Monday morning as the warm moisture from the
Gulf moves in.

Cotto (24)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 537 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023

A mix of low end VFR and high end MVFR ceilings are expected
throughout the day as upper level disturbances move through the
region. Lower ceilings with occasional IFR conditions can be
expected across the coastal terminals. Expect a gradual clearing
from west to east by late afternoon/early evening. In addition to
low ceilings, a few showers will be possible in the morning, but
minimal impacts are anticipated. North to northeasterly winds will
prevail with sustained speeds around 10 knots in the afternoon.
Winds will become light and variable after sunset along with
mostly clear skies.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023

Winds and seas will continue to gradually decrease as the day
progresses. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through
noon today and will likely be replaced by Caution Flags for this
afternoon. Light to occasionally moderate northeast winds and seas
of 2 to 4 feet will prevail through Thursday evening. A weak dry
cold front will push through the coastal waters sometime late
Thursday night or early Friday morning and bring back light north
to northwest winds Friday. Winds will turn from northeast to east
on Saturday and turn southeast on Sunday. Winds are expected to
increase Sunday night into Monday ahead of the next FROPA and
Caution Flags may be required. Expect stronger northerly winds and
elevated seas in the wake of the front Monday night into Tuesday.

Cotto (24)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 50 73 52 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 54 74 54 / 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 60 72 60 / 30 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
morning for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Cotto
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Cotto

[don]

For those that were disappointed in yesterdays storm. At least we wont have to wait long for the next opportunity of rain as the next storm arrives Monday.

[Stratton20]

Noaa’s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks look marvelous!

[sambucol]

Noaa’s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks look marvelous!

Do tell!! Inquiring minds want to know

[Stratton20]

Sambucol 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show below normal temps and aboce normal rainfall across the whole state of texas

[Cpv17]

Sambucol 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show below normal temps and aboce normal rainfall across the whole state of texas

I’m not really sold on the above average rain part. Not sure what they’re seeing. Ensembles don’t show much happening. Maybe 1” over the next couple weeks.

[DoctorMu]

Looking good. Mostly sunny and mild through Saturday, then a Holiday cool off with a chance of showers.