A tropical cyclone (tropical storm and hurricane) hits the Upper Texas Coast every (1.9) year. Hurricanes come every 3.6 years, while major hurricanes come every 10.8 years. This going back to 1870 to 2010.
Probability For Landfall on Upper Texas Coast
1 Tropical Cyclone=Every 1.9 years
1 Hurricane=Every 3.6 years
1 Major Hurricane=Every 10.8 years
2 Tropical Cyclones=Every 3.6 years
2 Hurricanes=Every 13 years
2 Major Hurricanes=Every 117 years
3 Tropical Cyclones=Every 6.9 years
3 Hurricanes=Every 46.7 years
3 Major Hurricanes=Every 1,260 years
4 Tropical Cyclones=Every 13 years
4 Hurricanes=Every 168 years
4 Major Hurricanes=Every 13,605 years
Tropical Cyclone Probabilities For Upper Texas Coast
-
redneckweather
- Posts: 1023
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
- Location: Montgomery, Texas
- Contact:
What I would like to know, what are the seasoned forecasters saying about chances for the gulf coast this year? It was eerily quiet last year, that is for sure.
I would like to know that, too.redneckweather wrote:What I would like to know, what are the seasoned forecasters saying about chances for the gulf coast this year? It was eerily quiet last year, that is for sure.
Probability by months for the Upper Texas Coast. It is from 1870 to 2010. Tropical cyclones that made landfall as tropical depressions count as tropical cyclones and are included (Ivan in 2004 and Erin in 2007).
June (14/6/0)
Tropical Cyclone=Every 10 years
Hurricane=Every 23.3 years
Major Hurricane=None Recorded (Hurricane Audrey was not a major hurricane.)
July (12/5/1)
Tropical Cyclone=Every 11.7 years
Hurricane=Every 28 years
Major Hurricane=Every 140 years (Some hurricanes that made landfall on Texas could get reclassified as major hurricanes.)
August (21/7/6)
Tropical Cyclone=Every 6.7 years
Hurricane=Every 20 years
Major Hurricane=Every 23.3 years
September (22/6/5)
Tropical Cyclone=Every 6.4 years
Hurricane=Every 23.3 years
Major Hurricane=Every 28 years
October (5/2/1)
Tropical Cyclone=Every 28 years
Hurricane=Every 70 years
Major Hurricane=Every 140 years (Only one documented major hurricane made landfall in October. It is probable that there have been major hurricanes that made landfall on the Upper Texas coast in October.)
November
None. However, it could be possible that some tropical cyclones have had made landfall on the Upper Texas Coast, but went unrecorded prior to 1851.
More than one tropical cyclones making landfall on the Upper Texas Coast in the same month is a very rare occurrence. It has happened before in September of 1941 and August of 1942. The other occurrence was June of 1871.
June 1871
2 Tropical Storms
Landfall was 7 Days Apart
Probability: Every 100 years
September 1941
1 Tropical Storm
1 Major Hurricane
Landfall was 8 Days Apart
Probability: Every 179.2 years
August 1942
1 Hurricane
1 Major Hurricane
Landfall was 9 Days Apart
Probability: Every 466 Years
Think about having a hurricane and major hurricane making landfall a week part today.
June (14/6/0)
Tropical Cyclone=Every 10 years
Hurricane=Every 23.3 years
Major Hurricane=None Recorded (Hurricane Audrey was not a major hurricane.)
July (12/5/1)
Tropical Cyclone=Every 11.7 years
Hurricane=Every 28 years
Major Hurricane=Every 140 years (Some hurricanes that made landfall on Texas could get reclassified as major hurricanes.)
August (21/7/6)
Tropical Cyclone=Every 6.7 years
Hurricane=Every 20 years
Major Hurricane=Every 23.3 years
September (22/6/5)
Tropical Cyclone=Every 6.4 years
Hurricane=Every 23.3 years
Major Hurricane=Every 28 years
October (5/2/1)
Tropical Cyclone=Every 28 years
Hurricane=Every 70 years
Major Hurricane=Every 140 years (Only one documented major hurricane made landfall in October. It is probable that there have been major hurricanes that made landfall on the Upper Texas coast in October.)
November
None. However, it could be possible that some tropical cyclones have had made landfall on the Upper Texas Coast, but went unrecorded prior to 1851.
More than one tropical cyclones making landfall on the Upper Texas Coast in the same month is a very rare occurrence. It has happened before in September of 1941 and August of 1942. The other occurrence was June of 1871.
June 1871
2 Tropical Storms
Landfall was 7 Days Apart
Probability: Every 100 years
September 1941
1 Tropical Storm
1 Major Hurricane
Landfall was 8 Days Apart
Probability: Every 179.2 years
August 1942
1 Hurricane
1 Major Hurricane
Landfall was 9 Days Apart
Probability: Every 466 Years
Think about having a hurricane and major hurricane making landfall a week part today.