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The first truly fall month. Will it start hot, normal or cool? Will it rain? We shall see.

tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 10:55 am The first truly fall month. Will it start hot, normal or cool? Will it rain? We shall see.

Watch for the potential of a pretty significant front mid to late October.

Rainy and cooler than normal looks like a pretty good bet

Word of the month: FROPA

Fall Severe Weather season engage!

Maybe some 30s/40s late month around Halloween

El Nino in October is often wet. There have been floods.

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2023 9:27 pm El Nino in October is often wet. There have been floods.

Need an EPAC tropical system to feed the SJT firehose. Oct. 1994 (Hurricane Rosa remnants), for example.

https://abc13.com/river-fire-flood-san- ... o%20River.


https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-073-94/pdf/FS-94-073.pdf

https://www.chron.com/neighborhood/arti ... 737148.php

Rain chances on the rise as we enter October!

Around 100° around the Autumnal Equinox.

That's just wrong.

Seeing some hints on the globals at our first real fall front around the 5th-7th timeframe in october, we will see

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 25, 2023 6:31 pm Seeing some hints on the globals at our first real fall front around the 5th-7th timeframe in october, we will see

Just in time for the Bama game. 230 kick so let’s get some dry air and 80s….

Heavy rain next week? Too early to tell.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Sep 25, 2023 9:53 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 25, 2023 6:31 pm Seeing some hints on the globals at our first real fall front around the 5th-7th timeframe in october, we will see

Just in time for the Bama game. 230 kick so let’s get some dry air and 80s….

I’ll be there again!

gfs and CMC are hinting at our first potential major fall front in the 10-12 day period fwiw

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 12:43 pm gfs and CMC are hinting at our first potential major fall front in the 10-12 day period fwiw

Even though you’re an eaTme fan, I thank you for this information.

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 5:08 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 12:43 pm gfs and CMC are hinting at our first potential major fall front in the 10-12 day period fwiw

Even though you’re an eaTme fan, I thank you for this information.

I plan on going to the A&M vs LSU game in Baton Rouge at the end of the season. I hope it’s a night game so I can get the full experience of that crazy atmosphere.

Now the Euro is starting to see a potential stronger fall front at the end of its run, we shall see

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 5:14 pm

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 5:08 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 12:43 pm gfs and CMC are hinting at our first potential major fall front in the 10-12 day period fwiw

Even though you’re an eaTme fan, I thank you for this information.

I plan on going to the A&M vs LSU game in Baton Rouge at the end of the season. I hope it’s a night game so I can get the full experience of that crazy atmosphere.

It will be an experience you will not forget.

Shifting pattern in the horizon for the North Pacific? A more El Nino pattern?

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Negative-Warm water around Japan. Cool water off the West Coast of America.
Positive-Cool water around Japan. Warm water off the West Coast of America.



PDO does have an affect similar to El Nino or La Nina.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

We are currently in negative PDO. Strong El Nino can drive PDO into positive territory.