October 2023

[DoctorMu]

College Station is 3°F cooler with a 12°F lower DP than Neyland Stadium. Not a cloud in the sky here.

Just wanted to get that in.

[snowman65]

forecast after next wed just looks dumb. Nothing cool to look forward to.

[user:null]

Great eclipse viewing today! Hopefully the same manifests for Apri!

[DoctorMu]

The eclipse was perfect - then we watched the NASA replay out of New Mexico.

The end of the week is going to suck, but enjoying 70°F, N18 G30, DP = 42°F, crystalline blue skies for now!

No rain in the sensible forecast period.

[DoctorMu]

I'm kind of questioning the Thursday FROPA as a *cold* front. Maybe a wind shift from SE to SW. The FROPA appears to be dry.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023

Offshore flow with surface high pressure across the Plains should
bring cool, dry and breezy weather into the beginning of next week.
Today should see highs in the upper 60s/mid 70s, with lows in the
40s/50s. Monday will see slightly cooler highs, but still generally
in the upper 60s/mid 70s. Monday night`s lows will be especially
cool, generally in the 40s inland and 50s along the immediate coast.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023

Surface high pressure will begin to move off to the east on Tuesday
and will allow the north winds over the past several days to swing around
to the southeast. This onshore flow will then persist into Thursday
and will allow for a warming trend. The next cold front that looks to
move across the area Thursday night into Friday morning should not make
it too far off the coast, and moisture levels and associated lift with
the front now are not very supportive of rains/storms. As a result,
have now gone with a dry forecast with this front.

The upward temperature trend for the highs starts on Tuesday (low to
mid 70s) and continues through the end of the week and start of the
weekend (mid to upper 80s on Friday and Saturday). A similar trend
can also be expected for the lows (upper 40s to mid 50s on Wednesday
warming into an upper 50s to lower 60s range by Friday and Saturday).

42

[don]

Models are starting to show the potential for another Pacific crossover around the end of the month. Hopefully this time we have better luck with the track (assuming something actually develops).

[Cromagnum]

Windows open all day today. First time I've finally been able to do that since spring went away.

[snowman65]

pathetic forecast throgh the end of October.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 161048
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023

Offshore flow with surface high pressure across the Central/Southern
Plains should bring cool, dry and breezy weather to SE Texas today.
Highs should be in the upper 60s/mid 70s, with lows in the 40s/50s.
850mb temperatures will rise to 10-13C on Tuesday, with highs
progged to be slightly warmer but generally in the 70s. Onshore flow
returns during the afternoon/evening hours of Tuesday as surface
high pressure drifts east of the state. Moisture return overnight
should limit diurnal cooling across the region, bringing lows in the
upper 40s/50s.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023

With surface high pressure now off to the east, cool nights will
continue but daytime highs will be getting warmer. A mainly weak
onshore flow will end up keeping moisture levels on the low side
before the next cold front moves into and across the area mainly
in a Thursday afternoon through Friday morning window (will have
low rain chances off the coast Thursday through Thursday evening
followed by a dry/quiet end to the week as a drier airmass comes
back with a mid/upper level western ridge and eastern trough be-
ing set up once again). The weekend forecast will basically have
cool nights and warm days.

For the temperature forecast, we will have highs in the 80s each
day with a couple spots possible hitting a 90-92 degree range on
Friday. Lows will be basically in the 50s/60s each morning (only
exception should be Saturday morning when most inland spots will
end up in the 50s). 42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 503 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023

Light northerly winds will strengthen later this morning with
gusts reaching upwards of 20 to 25 knots. Winds relax this evening
and become light overnight. VFR conditions should prevail
throughout the TAF period.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023

Winds are expected to drop below advisory levels by mid to late morning
as high pressure builds over our region. Seas will come down too. Winds
will shift to an onshore regime by Tuesday night. Light to occasionally
moderate onshore winds and low seas will continue through late Thursday
or early on Friday when a weak cold front moves into the area. Light
to occasionally moderate west to northwest winds are expected on Friday
and Friday night. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 43 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 46 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 70 58 72 64 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ350-
355-370-375.

&&

$$

[Cpv17]

pathetic forecast throgh the end of October.

I wouldn’t say that. There’s a possibility of a pretty decent rain event sometime next week.

[Pas_Bon]

pathetic forecast throgh the end of October.

I wouldn’t say that. There’s a possibility of a pretty decent rain event sometime next week.

Temperature-wise, though, it does suck for late October.

[snowman65]

pathetic forecast throgh the end of October.

I wouldn’t say that. There’s a possibility of a pretty decent rain event sometime next week.

I meant temp wise...

[Stratton20]

I mean its october, its still going to be a volatile month for temperature swings, thats just how it goes, it will cool down again

[Cpv17]

I don’t really care much about temps. As long as we’re getting good rains, I’m good. It’s plenty cool enough for me out there right now.

[tireman4]

pathetic forecast throgh the end of October.

I wouldn’t say that. There’s a possibility of a pretty decent rain event sometime next week.

Temperature-wise, though, it does suck for late October.

October has and always will be that transitional month. You will have temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s and sometimes, mid to upper 70s at the tail end of the month. As each front comes through, it will cool things off ( and down a bit). That is why sometimes it is called Indian Summer.

[Stratton20]

I do see ensemble support from the EPS, GEPS And GEFS, and even the operational GFS for some chillier weather around halloween, long ways off, so not getting my hopes up just yet, but definitely enough support their to at least watch it

[Cpv17]

I do see ensemble support from the EPS, GEPS And GEFS, and even the operational GFS for some chillier weather around halloween, long ways off, so not getting my hopes up just yet, but definitely enough support their to at least watch it

If you want cold, look for ridging to start showing up in the EPO regions (GOA, Alaska, W/NW Canada).

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 161935
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
235 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023

With gusty NE winds continuing to provide steady CAA to the area,
highs have thus far remained in the upper 60s as of 2 PM CDT today.
It`s a mostly persistence forecast in the immediate term with robust
high pressure moving into the area overnight, providing a relaxation
of winds. Clear skies look to promote efficient radiative cooling,
and most of the area should see lows dip into the 40s this evening.
For Houston, this would be the first time the low has dropped below
50 degrees since 03/20/2023 should it occur. A drop into the upper
30s in some of the far northern zones cannot be ruled out, and is
most likely in the Crockett area.

A gradual increase in both temperature and moisture is expected to
begin tomorrow as the aforementioned surface high drifts off to the
east, resulting in an onshore-oriented gradient wind by the
afternoon. With the loss of Monday`s CAA, highs should climb a bit
with most locations seeing values in the mid 70s. Likewise,
overnight lows should generally remain in the upper 40s to mid 50s,
an increase of around 6-8 degrees across the board.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023

A warmup will continue on Wednesday with max temps inland in the
lower 80s and ample sunshine. Moisture levels increase on
Thursday, but rain chances are mainly off to the east as an upper
level trough amplifies over the Eastern U.S. There is a slight
chance of showers on Thu aft across ext eastern areas of SE TX.
Otherwise, it looks dry through the period. A weak front will
likely push offshore on Thu night/Friday, but this front will
mainly bring drier air and result in very warm temperatures on
Friday aft with westerly flow and temps near 90 well inland. We
will see min temperatures fall back in the mid 50s to lower 60s
Fri and Sat mornings, but above normal max temperatures will
continue through the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the duration of the TAF
period, with winds relaxing after 00Z as high pressure moves in
overhead. Light northeast winds and clear skies continue into the
early part of tomorrow.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023

A caution statement will continue until late this afternoon for
15-20 kts winds offshore. Northerly winds will subside this
evening and overnight. Onshore flow is expected on Tuesday night,
increasing on Wednesday. A weak front will switch winds to
offshore on Friday, but onshore flow will return by late in the
weekend.

Wood

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 43 74 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 47 75 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 58 71 66 79 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 5 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Wood
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Wood

[Pas_Bon]

I do see ensemble support from the EPS, GEPS And GEFS, and even the operational GFS for some chillier weather around halloween, long ways off, so not getting my hopes up just yet, but definitely enough support their to at least watch it

If you want cold, look for ridging to start showing up in the EPO regions (GOA, Alaska, W/NW Canada).

I've put out my ridging bait all up in those areas. Waiting........

[DoctorMu]

Euro, GFS, CMC are sniffing out some EPAC moisture action in about a week.

The models lean to the Hill Country and west, but a nudge east in the SJT, and rain could be plentiful in our backyard.