From NHC
Milton could strengthen even more tonight with light shear and
very warm waters providing a conducive environment. However, radar
data indicate that Milton could be at the beginning of an eyewall
replacement cycle, with some signs of a moat and a partial outer
eyewall.
2024 Hurricane Season Discussion
180 mph?!
Mother of God….
Mother of God….
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5276
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Pete Cavlin
KHOU11 Meteorologist // AMS CBM #871 // Former NYS EMT // Pilot // Occasional Storm Chaser ☈
Andddddd it's stronger.
Winds sustained at 180 mph now... pressure getting close to the 800s...
@KHOU
#khou11 #Milton #Hurricane #Florida
KHOU11 Meteorologist // AMS CBM #871 // Former NYS EMT // Pilot // Occasional Storm Chaser ☈
Andddddd it's stronger.
Winds sustained at 180 mph now... pressure getting close to the 800s...
@KHOU
#khou11 #Milton #Hurricane #Florida
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5276
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 072057
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida
from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte
Harbor and Tampa Bay.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida
from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of
Florida south of Bonita Beach to Flamingo, including Lake
Okeechobee, and north of the mouth of the Suwannee River northward
and westward to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been
issued for all of the Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas and
Florida Bay.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the U.S. east coast from
Sebastian Inlet Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina, including
the St. Johns River.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued along the east coast of the
Florida Peninsula from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the east coast of the
Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
southward to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued
along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the
mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian
River County Line southward to Flamingo
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 90.8 West. Milton is moving
toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
expected through tonight followed by a turn toward the east-
northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just north
of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, then cross the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula on Wednesday.
Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a
potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are
expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous
hurricane through landfall in Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 905 mb (26.73 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of
considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the
potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected
across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico within a few hours, with tropical storm conditions expected
to begin soon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch
areas in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm
conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning
tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the
west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch
areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible
beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida
beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day.
SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown
WTNT34 KNHC 072057
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida
from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte
Harbor and Tampa Bay.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida
from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of
Florida south of Bonita Beach to Flamingo, including Lake
Okeechobee, and north of the mouth of the Suwannee River northward
and westward to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been
issued for all of the Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas and
Florida Bay.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the U.S. east coast from
Sebastian Inlet Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina, including
the St. Johns River.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued along the east coast of the
Florida Peninsula from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the east coast of the
Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
southward to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued
along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the
mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian
River County Line southward to Flamingo
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 90.8 West. Milton is moving
toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
expected through tonight followed by a turn toward the east-
northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just north
of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, then cross the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula on Wednesday.
Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a
potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are
expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous
hurricane through landfall in Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 905 mb (26.73 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of
considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the
potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected
across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico within a few hours, with tropical storm conditions expected
to begin soon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch
areas in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm
conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning
tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the
west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch
areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible
beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida
beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day.
SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown
180 mphtireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 2:48 pm Wxman57s thoughts
I'm expecting weakening prior to landfall. Hurricane force sustained wind (75-85 mph) may extend inland just past Tampa. Wind gusts 120-140 mph possible. The most vulnerable part of most homes is the garage door, particularly double-wide doors. During Ike, I set our big garbage bin up against the inside of the door and backed my car into it (with a blanket on it) to prevent the door from giving way. If you can protect such wind infiltration into your home, you can save the roof and home. If you're anywhere near Tampa and below 20 ft of elevation, get out. Tampa has never been hit directly by a Cat 3 hurricane.
Keep in mind that both linear and angular momentum just don't go away (see Katrina). Even if Milton weakens from a CAT5 to CAT 3 that push of water still had CAT5 energy and waves for awhile The wind field will also spread
L = MOI x w
L = Angular momentum
MOI = momentum of inertia = C x m x r[sqr]
m = mass, r = radius of gyration
w = angular momentum
If w decreases, then r and thus MOI will increase, spreading out the windfield. Thus the hurricane for winds may last longer. Also expect that the increased MOI will spawn more tornadoes, probably at night.
Also, given that Milton is stronger and motoring forward...it takes a track on the northerly side of the cone. That means water inflow into Tampa Bay and St. Petersburg and Clearwater and the southern eyewall is going to produce 145-150 mph winds (130 + 20 mph movement speed)
It's going to be bad as bad can be.
-
- Posts: 4945
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Pressure down to 898 mb now, holy sh*t
Donut of Doom.
897 mb pressure. 184 mph winds.
That is one scary hurricane. Made worse that it is likely to make landfall.
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5276
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
924
WTNT34 KNHC 081154
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR
MILTON'S ARRIVAL AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 88.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard
County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River,
including the St. Johns River.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida
from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte
Vedra Beach.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southeast coast of
Florida south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to
Flamingo, and for the northeast coast of Florida north of Ponte
Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River.
The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings
south of Celestun.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* East coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, including the St.
Johns River.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line
northward to Ponte Vedra Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County
Line to Flamingo
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 88.8 West. Milton is moving
toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
east-northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of
the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to
make landfall in Florida Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in
intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is
929 mb (27.43 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Volusia/Brevard County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of life-threatening flash, urban and areal flooding along
with moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across
northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue in the warning area in
Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas
in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue in tropical storm warning area today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west
coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical
storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions
are expected along the east coast of Florida in the warning areas on
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning
late Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early
Wednesday and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of
Florida by Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina
coasts on Thursday.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday
night.
SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
WTNT34 KNHC 081154
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR
MILTON'S ARRIVAL AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 88.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard
County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River,
including the St. Johns River.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida
from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte
Vedra Beach.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southeast coast of
Florida south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to
Flamingo, and for the northeast coast of Florida north of Ponte
Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River.
The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings
south of Celestun.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* East coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, including the St.
Johns River.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line
northward to Ponte Vedra Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County
Line to Flamingo
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 88.8 West. Milton is moving
toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
east-northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of
the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to
make landfall in Florida Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in
intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is
929 mb (27.43 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Volusia/Brevard County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of life-threatening flash, urban and areal flooding along
with moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across
northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue in the warning area in
Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas
in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue in tropical storm warning area today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west
coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical
storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions
are expected along the east coast of Florida in the warning areas on
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning
late Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early
Wednesday and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of
Florida by Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina
coasts on Thursday.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday
night.
SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5276
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
992
WTNT44 KNHC 080834
TCDAT4
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024
The structure of Milton has changed significantly overnight. The
pinhole eye seen yesterday has filled and earlier aircraft data
showed a double eyewall structure. More recent microwave images
show only one larger eyewall, and it is clear that Milton is
completing an eyewall replacement cycle. These eyewall replacement
cycles are common in strong hurricanes and often cause the peak
winds to fluctuate, while the wind field generally expands. Based
on the aircraft data from a few hours ago, the initial intensity is
set at 135 kt. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate Milton again later this morning.
The major hurricane is beginning to gain latitude, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 075/10 kt. A turn to the northeast with
a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today and
Wednesday as the hurricane moves in the flow between a trough
digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater
Antilles. This motion should take the core of Milton to
west-central Florida Wednesday night. After the hurricane passes
Florida, a faster east-northeastward motion is expected within a
more zonal steering flow. Little change was made to the track
forecast through landfall, but this prediction is a little slower
while the system enters and moves over the Atlantic.
Fluctuations in strength due to continued structural changes are
likely during the next day or so while Milton moves across the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. An increase in vertical wind
shear will likely cause some weakening before the hurricane reaches
Florida, but there is high confidence that Milton will remain an
extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches the state. After
landfall, more notable weakening is forecast and Milton is now
expected to become extratropical by day 3 when it is over the
Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the
model guidance in best agreement with the hurricane regional models.
Milton is still a relatively compact hurricane, but the wind field
is expected to continue to grow in size as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast
cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation
and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their
local emergency management officials. Milton has the potential to
be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.
Key Messages:
1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge
with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today.
2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along
parts of the west coast of Florida. This is an extremely
life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if
told to do so.
3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas
should be complete by tonight.
4. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of
Florida well ahead of Milton through early Thursday. This rainfall
brings the risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding will
be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to
increase the overall threat.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 22.3N 88.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 10/1800Z 28.8N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/0600Z 29.7N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z 30.4N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 31.5N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
WTNT44 KNHC 080834
TCDAT4
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024
The structure of Milton has changed significantly overnight. The
pinhole eye seen yesterday has filled and earlier aircraft data
showed a double eyewall structure. More recent microwave images
show only one larger eyewall, and it is clear that Milton is
completing an eyewall replacement cycle. These eyewall replacement
cycles are common in strong hurricanes and often cause the peak
winds to fluctuate, while the wind field generally expands. Based
on the aircraft data from a few hours ago, the initial intensity is
set at 135 kt. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate Milton again later this morning.
The major hurricane is beginning to gain latitude, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 075/10 kt. A turn to the northeast with
a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today and
Wednesday as the hurricane moves in the flow between a trough
digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater
Antilles. This motion should take the core of Milton to
west-central Florida Wednesday night. After the hurricane passes
Florida, a faster east-northeastward motion is expected within a
more zonal steering flow. Little change was made to the track
forecast through landfall, but this prediction is a little slower
while the system enters and moves over the Atlantic.
Fluctuations in strength due to continued structural changes are
likely during the next day or so while Milton moves across the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. An increase in vertical wind
shear will likely cause some weakening before the hurricane reaches
Florida, but there is high confidence that Milton will remain an
extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches the state. After
landfall, more notable weakening is forecast and Milton is now
expected to become extratropical by day 3 when it is over the
Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the
model guidance in best agreement with the hurricane regional models.
Milton is still a relatively compact hurricane, but the wind field
is expected to continue to grow in size as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast
cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation
and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their
local emergency management officials. Milton has the potential to
be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.
Key Messages:
1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge
with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today.
2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along
parts of the west coast of Florida. This is an extremely
life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if
told to do so.
3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas
should be complete by tonight.
4. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of
Florida well ahead of Milton through early Thursday. This rainfall
brings the risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding will
be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to
increase the overall threat.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 22.3N 88.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 10/1800Z 28.8N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/0600Z 29.7N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z 30.4N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 31.5N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5276
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
The Eyewall
Milton growing in size, fluctuating in intensity, and still targeting Florida’s west coast with a major hurricane strike tomorrow
By Matt Lanza on October 8, 2024
Headlines
Milton will fluctuate in intensity over the next 18 to 24 hours, perhaps once again becoming a category 5 storm for a time today.
Milton is growing in physical size, with an expanding wind field likely to help lock in significant storm surge when it makes landfall tomorrow night.
For areas between Tampa Bay and Venice, this may be your version of Ian, with devastating storm surge and strong winds.
For Tampa Bay, the track is still much too close for comfort with equal odds of it going just north of the bay (bad) or just south of the bay (bad, but less bad)
Major freshwater flooding is a possibility due to 10 to 15 inches of rain that may fall near and north of the I-4 corridor, including Tampa, Orlando, and Ocala.
Inland areas will see hurricane force winds and potential for substantial power outages.
Hurricane Milton is still expected to come ashore tomorrow night somewhere between Cape Coral and Cedar Key.
Hurricane Milton bottomed out sometime yesterday evening with a sub-900 mb pressure, the type of storm we have only seen a handful of times historically. Tentatively it is the 5th strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic, but we'll see what happens from here and in the postseason analysis before that gets firmed up. But the takeaway: Milton is not just a powerful storm, it is a historic one.
Milton underwent an eyewall replacement cycle overnight. In a nutshell: That's when a hurricane pauses its intensification, takes a breath, and typically grows a bit in size. Milton did just that, knocking its winds back to 145 mph, raising its pressure, but also expanding its tropical storm force wind field from 80 to 105 miles. Milton will continue to grow in physical size as it comes northeast today and tomorrow.
The sun rises on Hurricane Milton Tuesday morning.
Milton will continue on a northeasterly path now. This will carry it into the west coast of Florida tomorrow night. Exactly where in Florida it crashes ashore is still to be determined. Modeling seems to be honing in on the area between Clearwater and Sarasota, but given the typical error 36 to 48 hours ahead of landfall, there's still a wide berth here.
For Tampa Bay's surge zones: This remains much, much too close of a call to risk riding out. Is there a chance this goes just south of Tampa? Yes. In that case, Milton will probably be damaging but not devastating specifically in Tampa Bay. But you're talking literally a few wobbles or something like 5 miles of track shift, things that cannot be predicted making that difference. Assume the worst, hope for the best.
The surge forecast remains about 10 to 15 feet in Tampa Bay and just south, including Sarasota, Longboat Key, and Venice.
For areas south of Tampa Bay, things are locking in now unfortunately. This includes Sarasota, Venice, Longboat Key, and elsewhere. This may be your version of Hurricane Ian. The surge south of there into Charlotte Harbor, Punta Gorda, Cape Coral, and Fort Myers will be bad, at 6 to 10 feet, which is significantly lower than was seen in Ian but will be quite significant on its own. The bottom line: This is a terribly ugly storm surge forecast up the coast from where Ian hit in 2022. We cannot stress enough to try to evacuate if ordered, check on neighbors, family, and friends in the region, and hope that somehow or some way this is not as bad as it looks. I fear that is getting harder and harder to occur.
In terms of intensity, we may see Milton make a run back to a category 5 today. The next 18 to 24 hours will probably see some fluctuations in intensity, as is typically the case in hurricanes of this intensity. We'll probably see the intensity wane some tomorrow, but because the storm will compensate by growing in size, it will be very, very, very bad. Milton should arrive on the Florida coast as a borderline cat 3 or 4 storm in terms of wind, with a surge that will punch above the weight class, closer to cat 4 or 5. Milton is almost certainly not going to "weaken" enough before landfall to matter in terms of impacts.
A high risk (level 4/4) is now posted for flooding rainfall in Florida tomorrow near and north of the I-4 corridor, including Tampa, Orlando, and Ocala.
One thing that seems assured regardless of exact track? Rain. Flooding rainfall is likely near and north of the I-4 corridor tomorrow as Milton moves in. A high risk (level 4/4) has been posted for the area between Tampa and Daytona north to about Ocala. Moderate risks (which are also usually not good) surround this north to Jacksonville and Fernandina Beach and south between Fort Myers and Vero Beach. Total rainfall could be as much as 10 to 15 inches in the high risk area, enough to cause significant, damaging freshwater flooding.
For interior locations, I know this is a scary storm too. But while it will be damaging inland, the hope is that it's manageable by sheltering in place. If you're visiting, most hotels and resorts should be pros with this and able to keep you safe. If you live there, winds of 65 to 75 mph sustained and gusts in the 80s or 90s will be unpleasant but as long as you shelter in a sturdy home, you will be fine. Power loss will probably be the most significant problem there, with perhaps a few days without power. Just make sure you're prepared for that. Run from the water, hide from the wind. East coast beachfront locations will deal with full fledged tropical storm conditions and some modest surge flooding as well.
As is always the case, isolated tornadoes are possible as Milton comes ashore tomorrow night.
Look for another update this evening after we take a look at the 5 PM ET NHC advisory.
Milton growing in size, fluctuating in intensity, and still targeting Florida’s west coast with a major hurricane strike tomorrow
By Matt Lanza on October 8, 2024
Headlines
Milton will fluctuate in intensity over the next 18 to 24 hours, perhaps once again becoming a category 5 storm for a time today.
Milton is growing in physical size, with an expanding wind field likely to help lock in significant storm surge when it makes landfall tomorrow night.
For areas between Tampa Bay and Venice, this may be your version of Ian, with devastating storm surge and strong winds.
For Tampa Bay, the track is still much too close for comfort with equal odds of it going just north of the bay (bad) or just south of the bay (bad, but less bad)
Major freshwater flooding is a possibility due to 10 to 15 inches of rain that may fall near and north of the I-4 corridor, including Tampa, Orlando, and Ocala.
Inland areas will see hurricane force winds and potential for substantial power outages.
Hurricane Milton is still expected to come ashore tomorrow night somewhere between Cape Coral and Cedar Key.
Hurricane Milton bottomed out sometime yesterday evening with a sub-900 mb pressure, the type of storm we have only seen a handful of times historically. Tentatively it is the 5th strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic, but we'll see what happens from here and in the postseason analysis before that gets firmed up. But the takeaway: Milton is not just a powerful storm, it is a historic one.
Milton underwent an eyewall replacement cycle overnight. In a nutshell: That's when a hurricane pauses its intensification, takes a breath, and typically grows a bit in size. Milton did just that, knocking its winds back to 145 mph, raising its pressure, but also expanding its tropical storm force wind field from 80 to 105 miles. Milton will continue to grow in physical size as it comes northeast today and tomorrow.
The sun rises on Hurricane Milton Tuesday morning.
Milton will continue on a northeasterly path now. This will carry it into the west coast of Florida tomorrow night. Exactly where in Florida it crashes ashore is still to be determined. Modeling seems to be honing in on the area between Clearwater and Sarasota, but given the typical error 36 to 48 hours ahead of landfall, there's still a wide berth here.
For Tampa Bay's surge zones: This remains much, much too close of a call to risk riding out. Is there a chance this goes just south of Tampa? Yes. In that case, Milton will probably be damaging but not devastating specifically in Tampa Bay. But you're talking literally a few wobbles or something like 5 miles of track shift, things that cannot be predicted making that difference. Assume the worst, hope for the best.
The surge forecast remains about 10 to 15 feet in Tampa Bay and just south, including Sarasota, Longboat Key, and Venice.
For areas south of Tampa Bay, things are locking in now unfortunately. This includes Sarasota, Venice, Longboat Key, and elsewhere. This may be your version of Hurricane Ian. The surge south of there into Charlotte Harbor, Punta Gorda, Cape Coral, and Fort Myers will be bad, at 6 to 10 feet, which is significantly lower than was seen in Ian but will be quite significant on its own. The bottom line: This is a terribly ugly storm surge forecast up the coast from where Ian hit in 2022. We cannot stress enough to try to evacuate if ordered, check on neighbors, family, and friends in the region, and hope that somehow or some way this is not as bad as it looks. I fear that is getting harder and harder to occur.
In terms of intensity, we may see Milton make a run back to a category 5 today. The next 18 to 24 hours will probably see some fluctuations in intensity, as is typically the case in hurricanes of this intensity. We'll probably see the intensity wane some tomorrow, but because the storm will compensate by growing in size, it will be very, very, very bad. Milton should arrive on the Florida coast as a borderline cat 3 or 4 storm in terms of wind, with a surge that will punch above the weight class, closer to cat 4 or 5. Milton is almost certainly not going to "weaken" enough before landfall to matter in terms of impacts.
A high risk (level 4/4) is now posted for flooding rainfall in Florida tomorrow near and north of the I-4 corridor, including Tampa, Orlando, and Ocala.
One thing that seems assured regardless of exact track? Rain. Flooding rainfall is likely near and north of the I-4 corridor tomorrow as Milton moves in. A high risk (level 4/4) has been posted for the area between Tampa and Daytona north to about Ocala. Moderate risks (which are also usually not good) surround this north to Jacksonville and Fernandina Beach and south between Fort Myers and Vero Beach. Total rainfall could be as much as 10 to 15 inches in the high risk area, enough to cause significant, damaging freshwater flooding.
For interior locations, I know this is a scary storm too. But while it will be damaging inland, the hope is that it's manageable by sheltering in place. If you're visiting, most hotels and resorts should be pros with this and able to keep you safe. If you live there, winds of 65 to 75 mph sustained and gusts in the 80s or 90s will be unpleasant but as long as you shelter in a sturdy home, you will be fine. Power loss will probably be the most significant problem there, with perhaps a few days without power. Just make sure you're prepared for that. Run from the water, hide from the wind. East coast beachfront locations will deal with full fledged tropical storm conditions and some modest surge flooding as well.
As is always the case, isolated tornadoes are possible as Milton comes ashore tomorrow night.
Look for another update this evening after we take a look at the 5 PM ET NHC advisory.
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5276
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
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- Contact:
Recon planes made the pass again.
AF309
928.4 mb extrapolated with 14 kt winds nearby -> 927 mb
129 kt FL
NOAA3
928.4 mb extrapolated with 24 kt winds nearby -> 926 mb
144 kt FL, only the eastern part, more data will follow soon
Based on these passes I'd put the current intensity at 927mb/130kt.
AF309
928.4 mb extrapolated with 14 kt winds nearby -> 927 mb
129 kt FL
NOAA3
928.4 mb extrapolated with 24 kt winds nearby -> 926 mb
144 kt FL, only the eastern part, more data will follow soon
Based on these passes I'd put the current intensity at 927mb/130kt.
Climate change nonsense, or otherwise, this has happened previously.
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5276
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 081455
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024
...MILTON FORECAST TO RETAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AND EXPAND IN
SIZE WHILE IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR
FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL
OFFICIALS...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 88.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning has been extended southward along the
east coast of Florida to Port Canaveral.
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama
Island, the Abacos, and Bimini.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* East coast of Florida from Port Canaveral northward to the mouth
of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line
northward to Ponte Vedra Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Canaveral to Sebastian Inlet
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County
Line to Flamingo
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island,
the Abacos, and Bimini.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 88.4 West. Milton is
moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
to begin later today and continue through Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and approach the west-central coast of Florida
through Wednesday. The center is likely to make landfall along the
west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday night, and move
east-northeastward across central Florida through Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected,
Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane
through landfall in Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 929 mb
(27.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Port Canaveral, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with
moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday.
Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals
around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue in the
warning areas in Mexico today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area
on the west coast of Florida Wednesday morning, spreading across
the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the extreme northwestern
Bahamas on Thursday.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday
night.
SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
WTNT34 KNHC 081455
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024
...MILTON FORECAST TO RETAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AND EXPAND IN
SIZE WHILE IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR
FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL
OFFICIALS...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 88.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning has been extended southward along the
east coast of Florida to Port Canaveral.
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama
Island, the Abacos, and Bimini.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* East coast of Florida from Port Canaveral northward to the mouth
of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line
northward to Ponte Vedra Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Canaveral to Sebastian Inlet
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County
Line to Flamingo
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island,
the Abacos, and Bimini.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 88.4 West. Milton is
moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
to begin later today and continue through Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and approach the west-central coast of Florida
through Wednesday. The center is likely to make landfall along the
west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday night, and move
east-northeastward across central Florida through Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected,
Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane
through landfall in Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 929 mb
(27.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Port Canaveral, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with
moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday.
Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals
around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue in the
warning areas in Mexico today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area
on the west coast of Florida Wednesday morning, spreading across
the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the extreme northwestern
Bahamas on Thursday.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday
night.
SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5276
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 081455
TCDAT4
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024
Sequences of microwave images and recent Hurricane Hunter
observations suggest that Milton completed an eyewall replacement
overnight, and the new eyewall has contracted down from 22 n mi to
12 nm in diameter. However, it does not appear that the hurricane
weakened much after the eyewall replacement, and it could have
rebounded with the outer eyewall contraction. A dropsonde released
by the NOAA P-3 in the northeastern eyewall recently measured an
average wind of 156 kt in the lowest 150 m of the sounding, which
equates to an intensity of 130 kt. The latest pressure reported by
the planes is 929 mb.
The recent aircraft fixes show that Milton has turned a bit
leftward and is moving toward the east-northeast (065/8 kt).
Milton is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating
later today as it moves between a trough digging into the Gulf of
Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. The track guidance
is honed in on a landfall along the west-central coast of Florida
sometime Wednesday night. However, it is critical to remember that
even at 36-48 hours away, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an
average of 60-70 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact
landfall location, especially if the hurricane wobbles as it
approaches the coast. After landfall, Milton is forecast to cross
Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on Thursday.
Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it
moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of
Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to set in about 24
hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will not be
enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane
when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of
extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching
the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the
rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top
end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models,
since these models should have a better handle on a potential
positive trough interaction.
Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast
cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation
and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their
local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other
preparations should be completed today. Milton has the potential to
be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.
Key Messages:
1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm
surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today.
2. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the
Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening
situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local
officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on
Wednesday.
3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
Preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for
long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight.
4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding along
with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where
coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood
threat.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 22.7N 88.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 23.6N 87.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 25.2N 85.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 26.8N 83.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 29.1N 78.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/1200Z 29.7N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 31.8N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Berg
WTNT44 KNHC 081455
TCDAT4
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024
Sequences of microwave images and recent Hurricane Hunter
observations suggest that Milton completed an eyewall replacement
overnight, and the new eyewall has contracted down from 22 n mi to
12 nm in diameter. However, it does not appear that the hurricane
weakened much after the eyewall replacement, and it could have
rebounded with the outer eyewall contraction. A dropsonde released
by the NOAA P-3 in the northeastern eyewall recently measured an
average wind of 156 kt in the lowest 150 m of the sounding, which
equates to an intensity of 130 kt. The latest pressure reported by
the planes is 929 mb.
The recent aircraft fixes show that Milton has turned a bit
leftward and is moving toward the east-northeast (065/8 kt).
Milton is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating
later today as it moves between a trough digging into the Gulf of
Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. The track guidance
is honed in on a landfall along the west-central coast of Florida
sometime Wednesday night. However, it is critical to remember that
even at 36-48 hours away, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an
average of 60-70 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact
landfall location, especially if the hurricane wobbles as it
approaches the coast. After landfall, Milton is forecast to cross
Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on Thursday.
Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it
moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of
Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to set in about 24
hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will not be
enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane
when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of
extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching
the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the
rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top
end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models,
since these models should have a better handle on a potential
positive trough interaction.
Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast
cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation
and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their
local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other
preparations should be completed today. Milton has the potential to
be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.
Key Messages:
1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm
surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today.
2. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the
Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening
situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local
officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on
Wednesday.
3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
Preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for
long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight.
4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding along
with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where
coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood
threat.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 22.7N 88.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 23.6N 87.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 25.2N 85.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 26.8N 83.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 29.1N 78.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/1200Z 29.7N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 31.8N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Berg
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5276
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
For only 3rd time in satellite era (1966-onwards), the Atlantic has generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in October than August & September combined. ACE is integrated metric account for tropical cyclone intensity, frequency and duration. 1970 & 2016 were 2 other cases pic.twitter.com/wvHdK3iV1p
-- Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 8, 2024
-- Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 8, 2024
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5276
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
The latest recon....
VDM:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 15:59Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024
Storm Name: Milton (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 27
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 15:28:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22.50N 88.51W
B. Center Fix Location: 127 statute miles (204 km) to the NNE (33°) from Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,474m (8,117ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 927mb (27.38 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 360° at 17kts (From the N at 20mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 142kts (163.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the W (260°) of center fix at 15:26:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 345° at 131kts (From the NNW at 150.8mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the WSW (251°) of center fix at 15:25:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 120kts (138.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the NNE (23°) of center fix at 15:34:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 111° at 119kts (From the ESE at 136.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the NNE (26°) of center fix at 15:35:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,039m (9,970ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 131kts (~ 150.8mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the WSW (251°) from the flight level center at 15:25:00Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
VDM:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 15:59Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024
Storm Name: Milton (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 27
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 15:28:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22.50N 88.51W
B. Center Fix Location: 127 statute miles (204 km) to the NNE (33°) from Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,474m (8,117ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 927mb (27.38 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 360° at 17kts (From the N at 20mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 142kts (163.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the W (260°) of center fix at 15:26:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 345° at 131kts (From the NNW at 150.8mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the WSW (251°) of center fix at 15:25:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 120kts (138.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the NNE (23°) of center fix at 15:34:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 111° at 119kts (From the ESE at 136.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the NNE (26°) of center fix at 15:35:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,039m (9,970ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 131kts (~ 150.8mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the WSW (251°) from the flight level center at 15:25:00Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)