September 2023

[Rip76]

Big changes on the CPC forecast today.

‘Splain

[Cpv17]

Big changes on the CPC forecast today.

‘Splain

Read the October thread.

[Cromagnum]

Nice storm coming up on the ship channel moving west.

[DoctorMu]

Bring it:

[snowman65]

Bring it:

I think thats already gone. Hope not but...

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 291133
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

High pressure centered across the central/eastern CONUS will
continue to dominate the weather across most of Southeast TX today
and Saturday. This pattern will continue to bring easterly surface
flow, and hence, deeper Gulf moisture into the region. Therefore,
hot days are expected to continue during the short term period with
rain and storm chances, especially over the coastal zones. The main
weather maker will be a trough/weak easterly wave over the northern
Gulf of Mexico. This trough is progged to move westward into the
Upper TX coast and along the coastal counties today and should remain
over the region through Saturday evening; resulting in elevated rain
and storm chances. Most of this activity should remain along the
coast with the highest chances offshore. However, cannot rule out a
few showers and storms popping up further inland in the
afternoon/early evening given the combination of instability and
daytime heating.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

Even with the mid/upper ridging holding in place over the region on
Sun/Mon, the persistent easterly fetch at the lower levels will con-
tinue to draw surges of deeper moisture (PWs from 1.6-1.9") into SW
and coastal portions of the FA from the Gulf. Combined with daytime
heating and embedded disturbances, this should translate to periods
of isolated to scattered activity from Sun through Tues. The better
POPs will be along the immediate coast to around the I-10 corridor.
As the mid/upper ridging begins weakening (as per the eastward trek
of the main longwave across the Central Plains), these rain chances
(30-40%) are expected to spread to cover much of the CWA on Wed. As
we head into Thur and Fri, even more changes are possible as global
models bring a strong cold front into and across the state. Will be
keeping elevated POPs in place for SE TX for this time frame (given
all the inherent uncertainties with timing and whatnot this far out
in the forecast). And if this does verify...this could be the first
real taste of fall for SE TX by next weekend. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected today with the
best chances for terminals south of I-10, particularly for LBX
and GLS. This activity will generally develop over the coast and
gradually move westward into the coastal counties throughout the
day as a disturbance moves through. Winds will generally be from
the E-SE, strengthening up to around 10 knots in the afternoon.
Showers and storms should gradually diminish through late this
aftn/early evening. Outside any storms, VFR conditions can be
expected.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

Generally light to moderate east winds will prevail through the
start of next week. This persistent easterly fetch will help to
increase seas over the weekend. Caution flags for elevated seas
may be warranted at times. Periods of unsettled weather will be
possible these next several days as deeper moisture moves in from
the Gulf. Winds and seas could be higher in and near the stronger
thunderstorms. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 74 97 69 / 0 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 94 74 94 73 / 10 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 90 80 / 40 40 40 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...41

[javakah]

Anyone know how a potential government shutdown affects NWS/CPC/NOAA?

[Pas_Bon]

Anyone know how a potential government shutdown affects NWS/CPC/NOAA?

It doesn't.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It stays online. I wish our govt would permanently shut down… LOL. Worthless Kabuki Theater circus clowns.

[Cromagnum]

Bad day to get a dump truck of dirt. Steamy as all get out and hard to work through it.

[jasons2k]

Every time we drive down to the beach, someone comments about how, in Florida, the easements and medians all along I-10 and I-75 are manicured and there is NO LITTER in sight. The interchanges have actual landscaping and trees (lots of palm trees). The rest stops are clean, modern and maintained. The welcome center is a landmark on its own. I’ve made the comment several times “In Florida, you see actual evidence of the tax dollars doing something. Something tangible. In Texas, everything just turned to trash”

Look at our freeways folks. There’s debris and trash everywhere. The easements are hardly ever mowed - they’re always overgrown with weeds and plastic bags. On the rare occasion they plant trees, half of them die off because they don’t water them. Somebody’s pockets are lined and there isn’t much to show for it, that’s for sure. It’s sad that we have so much growth and wealth in this state, and our public spaces, especially along the freeways, look so embarrassing.

[DoctorMu]

Every time we drive down to the beach, someone comments about how, in Florida, the easements and medians all along I-10 and I-75 are manicured and there is NO LITTER in sight. The interchanges have actual landscaping and trees (lots of palm trees). The rest stops are clean, modern and maintained. The welcome center is a landmark on its own. I’ve made the comment several times “In Florida, you see actual evidence of the tax dollars doing something. Something tangible. In Texas, everything just turned to trash”

Look at our freeways folks. There’s debris and trash everywhere. The easements are hardly ever mowed - they’re always overgrown with weeds and plastic bags. On the rare occasion they plant trees, half of them die off because they don’t water them. Somebody’s pockets are lined and there isn’t much to show for it, that’s for sure. It’s sad that we have so much growth and wealth in this state, and our public spaces, especially along the freeways, look so embarrassing.

Yeah, A. Texas = Bootstraps.

B. Florida receives rain in the summer.

[DoctorMu]

I'm just sayin':











Kelvin wave?

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu looks like the CPC has bought in as well, fall is coming !

[DoctorMu]

Possible bonus - a little EPAC moisture streaming post FROPA? Euro says maybe.

[Cpv17]

I'm just sayin':











Kelvin wave?

CMC is usually 10-15° too cold.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 and the GFS and Euro tend to be too warm, i think the front will come in stronger than current model runs, happens almost every time

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 and the GFS and Euro tend to be too warm, i think the front will come in stronger than current model runs, happens almost every time

I wouldn’t get your hopes up.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 na that front is coming, highs in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s is pretty much near guaranteed, setup is good, + PNA building over the western US should allow for some of that fresh cool air to make it down here

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 na that front is coming, highs in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s is pretty much near guaranteed, setup is good, + PNA building over the western US should allow for some of that fresh cool air to make it down here

60’s and 80’s for sure will happen. Maybe upper 50’s to mid to upper 70’s for highs. But that’s not anything too unusual for the time of year.