nm
September 2023
Last edited by Pas_Bon on Thu Sep 14, 2023 9:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
It's good to see El Niño finally waking up and overcoming the -PDO. I think we have Lee to partially thank combined with that Great Lakes trough.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24
I’m getting complete cloud coverage and huge thunder rumbles in League City right now. Hope it bears fruit….
Looks like a thunderstorm complex will move in later tonight.
I’m watching. The sea breeze stalled before getting here so it is still quite muggy
A sight for sore eyes:
Radar starting to look good. Dare I say it, but here at 10:38 it’s starting to look like that HRRR forecast from a couple hours ago.
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How late tonight is the area supposed to get something? I'm still out of town and tuned in and see 100% of the storms that formed this afternoon missed me like usual. Don't see a whole lot right now either.
The radar is dying…maybe tomorrow.
Again…
Again…
Rain! Rain for everyone today! …hopefully.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4516
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 140838
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
338 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023
Shortwave embedded in the zonal flow aloft is making its way toward
the Hill Country early this morning. Look for this feature to bring
an increase in shra/tstm coverage across our region as it treks
closer and into Southeast Texas as we head through the morning into
mid-late afternoon hours. Similar to yesterday, overall
forcing/dynamics aren`t that impressive, though cannot rule out a
isolated pulse stronger-sever cell or two. Brief strong winds would
be the issue if/where this occurs. Considering the resident 2.2"
PW`s in place, think that localized heavy downpours are a fairly
decent possibility. With the dry ground in place, rains are very
much welcomed and it should be able to absorb precipitation without
any widespread issues. What we`ll be looking at is the rainfall
rates themselves...and moreso over urbanized locations where rates
at or above 2"+/hour could pose some minor, and localized, street
flooding. Overall, guidance varies on amounts and hotspots, but
would anticipate average 0.5-1.5" amounts. Yesterday, a cell near
the Texas City area put down some 2-4" totals...and that would
probably be a reasonable higher end estimate today where the
stronger cells pass through and/or mesoscale interactions occur.
Think we`ll probably see precip taper down heading into the late
afternoon and evening hours. We`ll then turn our attention upstream
late tonight and Friday for additional hard-to-time disturbances as
they make their way toward and/or into the area and bring additional
chances for precipitation. Models remain a mixed bag in regards to
timing and finer details. As such, overall confidence is somewhat
low (other than knowing decent shots of rain are favorable in this
type pattern). 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023
Additional rain chances will arrive as we head into the weekend
with the weakly defined boundary remaining in place over the area
through Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm development will be
further aided on Saturday and Sunday by the approach of a midlevel
shortwave embedded within the dominant longwave trough/closed low
over the northern central CONUS. With relatively abundant moisture
remaining in place (PWs of up to 2 in), there should be fairly
widespread convective development throughout the course of the
weekend with most locations carrying 40-60% rain chances on
Saturday and 30-40% rain chances on Sunday. Precipitation, along
with widespread cloud cover, should work to keep temperatures in
the upper 80s to lower 90s while lows will settle into the upper
60s to mid 70s. As the weak boundary pushes offshore on Sunday,
there will be a brief shift to northerly winds that should allow
some drier air to filter into the area. With surface dew points
being largely driven down into the 60s as a result, conditions
should feel a bit more pleasant heading into the beginning of next
week.
A broad midlevel ridge will gradually build to our SW over the
course of next week, resulting in reduced but not completely
eliminated rainfall chances as surface winds shift back to an
onshore regime and surface moisture increases once again. That
being said, most storm development will be tied to diurnal
activity and daily rainfall chances currently range in the 20-30%
range along the coast and lower further inland. Increasing
midlevel heights and a return of SE winds will result in a slight
increase in high temperatures with most locations seeing daily
highs return to the mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper
70s.
Cady
&&
.AVIATION...
(12 TAF Issuance)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023
Beginning to see some spotty MVFR ceilings emerge across the region.
Think they`ll fill in closer to the CLL/UTS terminals in the coming
hours and sag down toward the metro area heading into mid morning.
These should slowly lift back into VFR territory in the late morning
and early afternoon (outside of any storms, anyways). Forecast
challenge will be the timing and intensity of any storms that impact
the individual terminals today. CLL appear to more prone to
localized stronger cells in the morning into early afternoon...the I-
45 terminals late morning into late afternoon. Main impacts will be
lower ceilings and reduced visibility in the stronger storms. Can`t
rule out some localized 20+kt gusts either. Look for precip to taper
off in the evening with VFR conditions mainly prevailing. Heading
into the overnight hours, MVFR ceilings should fill back in near
CLL/UTS and sag southward. In addition, will need to be on the
lookout for some patchy fog development with the wet ground and also
monitor the timing for the next upper disturbance(s) that could
trigger some precip heading into Fri morning. Low confidence in
regards to the specifics at this point. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023
Scattered showers and storms will continue to impact the bays and
coastal waters for the remainder of the week and into the weekend,
with some storms potentially producing strong gusts at times. Wind
speeds will generally remain below caution thresholds outside of
any brief strong gusts associated with thunderstorm activity. As
the weak boundary overhead pushes offshore on Sunday, there will
be a brief shift to offshore winds before a southeast flow re-
develops heading into the beginning of next week.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 72 89 71 / 70 50 50 50
Houston (IAH) 89 75 92 75 / 60 40 50 40
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 91 78 / 60 50 50 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...42
MARINE...Cady
FXUS64 KHGX 140838
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
338 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023
Shortwave embedded in the zonal flow aloft is making its way toward
the Hill Country early this morning. Look for this feature to bring
an increase in shra/tstm coverage across our region as it treks
closer and into Southeast Texas as we head through the morning into
mid-late afternoon hours. Similar to yesterday, overall
forcing/dynamics aren`t that impressive, though cannot rule out a
isolated pulse stronger-sever cell or two. Brief strong winds would
be the issue if/where this occurs. Considering the resident 2.2"
PW`s in place, think that localized heavy downpours are a fairly
decent possibility. With the dry ground in place, rains are very
much welcomed and it should be able to absorb precipitation without
any widespread issues. What we`ll be looking at is the rainfall
rates themselves...and moreso over urbanized locations where rates
at or above 2"+/hour could pose some minor, and localized, street
flooding. Overall, guidance varies on amounts and hotspots, but
would anticipate average 0.5-1.5" amounts. Yesterday, a cell near
the Texas City area put down some 2-4" totals...and that would
probably be a reasonable higher end estimate today where the
stronger cells pass through and/or mesoscale interactions occur.
Think we`ll probably see precip taper down heading into the late
afternoon and evening hours. We`ll then turn our attention upstream
late tonight and Friday for additional hard-to-time disturbances as
they make their way toward and/or into the area and bring additional
chances for precipitation. Models remain a mixed bag in regards to
timing and finer details. As such, overall confidence is somewhat
low (other than knowing decent shots of rain are favorable in this
type pattern). 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023
Additional rain chances will arrive as we head into the weekend
with the weakly defined boundary remaining in place over the area
through Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm development will be
further aided on Saturday and Sunday by the approach of a midlevel
shortwave embedded within the dominant longwave trough/closed low
over the northern central CONUS. With relatively abundant moisture
remaining in place (PWs of up to 2 in), there should be fairly
widespread convective development throughout the course of the
weekend with most locations carrying 40-60% rain chances on
Saturday and 30-40% rain chances on Sunday. Precipitation, along
with widespread cloud cover, should work to keep temperatures in
the upper 80s to lower 90s while lows will settle into the upper
60s to mid 70s. As the weak boundary pushes offshore on Sunday,
there will be a brief shift to northerly winds that should allow
some drier air to filter into the area. With surface dew points
being largely driven down into the 60s as a result, conditions
should feel a bit more pleasant heading into the beginning of next
week.
A broad midlevel ridge will gradually build to our SW over the
course of next week, resulting in reduced but not completely
eliminated rainfall chances as surface winds shift back to an
onshore regime and surface moisture increases once again. That
being said, most storm development will be tied to diurnal
activity and daily rainfall chances currently range in the 20-30%
range along the coast and lower further inland. Increasing
midlevel heights and a return of SE winds will result in a slight
increase in high temperatures with most locations seeing daily
highs return to the mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper
70s.
Cady
&&
.AVIATION...
(12 TAF Issuance)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023
Beginning to see some spotty MVFR ceilings emerge across the region.
Think they`ll fill in closer to the CLL/UTS terminals in the coming
hours and sag down toward the metro area heading into mid morning.
These should slowly lift back into VFR territory in the late morning
and early afternoon (outside of any storms, anyways). Forecast
challenge will be the timing and intensity of any storms that impact
the individual terminals today. CLL appear to more prone to
localized stronger cells in the morning into early afternoon...the I-
45 terminals late morning into late afternoon. Main impacts will be
lower ceilings and reduced visibility in the stronger storms. Can`t
rule out some localized 20+kt gusts either. Look for precip to taper
off in the evening with VFR conditions mainly prevailing. Heading
into the overnight hours, MVFR ceilings should fill back in near
CLL/UTS and sag southward. In addition, will need to be on the
lookout for some patchy fog development with the wet ground and also
monitor the timing for the next upper disturbance(s) that could
trigger some precip heading into Fri morning. Low confidence in
regards to the specifics at this point. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023
Scattered showers and storms will continue to impact the bays and
coastal waters for the remainder of the week and into the weekend,
with some storms potentially producing strong gusts at times. Wind
speeds will generally remain below caution thresholds outside of
any brief strong gusts associated with thunderstorm activity. As
the weak boundary overhead pushes offshore on Sunday, there will
be a brief shift to offshore winds before a southeast flow re-
develops heading into the beginning of next week.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 72 89 71 / 70 50 50 50
Houston (IAH) 89 75 92 75 / 60 40 50 40
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 91 78 / 60 50 50 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...42
MARINE...Cady
Geez a nice cluster of storms out west was headed this way, now falling apart with new storms forming to my east. Figures.
Same down at my area. Big red line coming and my house gets dry slotted...
Just a mist when it should have been a downpour. Hope I'm luckier later.
New complex up in Conroe…gonna miss to the north.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4516
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
FXUS64 KHGX 141512
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1012 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023
No changes to the forecast at this time. Latest upper air sounding
from over in KLCH and down in KCRP, along with LAPS analysis shows
good moisture profile across the region with PWAT values near or
above 2 inches. A short wave moving out of central Texas will work
with the moisture to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon hours. Main concerns with the storms will be
cloud to ground lightning and some brief heavy downpours.
Rua/WFOLCH
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1012 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023
No changes to the forecast at this time. Latest upper air sounding
from over in KLCH and down in KCRP, along with LAPS analysis shows
good moisture profile across the region with PWAT values near or
above 2 inches. A short wave moving out of central Texas will work
with the moisture to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon hours. Main concerns with the storms will be
cloud to ground lightning and some brief heavy downpours.
Rua/WFOLCH
I’m surrounded.
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Amazing. It’s finally raining and the storm is developing instead of falling apart!!
Yes!!
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My overflow bucket has water in it. I’m gonna guess about 1.5” total.
I’ll check later.
I’ll check later.
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