August 2023

[Stratton20]

did-get a little bit of light rain, ill take it

[user:null]

High of 112°F and then a 30°F drop in 2 hours.

That's why it's insane. College Station has the expectation of being hot. But the SE Texas Beaumont/Port Arthur hit 111°F! Lafayette in Louisiana hit 110°F!

[user:null]

Definitely good rains mostly for areas north of I-10: though the complex has been trying to extend south (even though the best rains are east into Deep East Texas/Louisiana.

Tomorrow looks like better chances for areas south of I-10.

[jasons2k]

It just won't come down. A steady rain just a couple of miles away but here - just another Lucy tease!!

[user:null]

Know what's weird? Despite how much hotter and drier Brownsville, TX is on average compared to SE Texas and Louisiana, the record high down in the RGV locale is only 106°F ... and that record wasn't even in summer (it was in March).

But go just inland to McAllen, and you get 111°F ... pretty high ... but not near as high as the supposedly lush forests in Longview, TX or Little Rock, AR that have even hotter highs.

Honestly, it defies logic.

[user:null]

It just won't come down. A steady rain just a couple of miles away but here - just another Lucy tease!!

All the action is in Deep East Texas and adjacent northern Louisiana. Everything south is just radar fluff, cloud cover, or light traces at best.

[jasons2k]

They sure are getting it northeast of here towards Toledo Bend.

[DoctorMu]

High of 112°F and then a 30°F drop in 2 hours.

That's why it's insane. College Station has the expectation of being hot. But the SE Texas Beaumont/Port Arthur hit 111°F! Lafayette in Louisiana hit 110°F!

We tied an all-time record high.

But 110°F in Lafayette or New Iberia is insane.

[Cromagnum]

I am going to lose it if all the rain was too far north yesterday but too far south today.

[Cpv17]

I am going to lose it if all the rain was too far north yesterday but too far south today.

I’ll be honest, the mesos don’t appear too enthusiastic about rainfall today but there should be a window of opportunity from about 4-10pm later today south of 10. North of there maybe an isolated shower or two. Much better chance today for us southerners. I’d say about 40% south of 10 and maybe 10-20% north of there.

[Cromagnum]

I am going to lose it if all the rain was too far north yesterday but too far south today.

I’ll be honest, the mesos don’t appear too enthusiastic about rainfall today but there should be a window of opportunity from about 4-10pm later today south of 10. North of there maybe an isolated shower or two. Much better chance today for us southerners. I’d say about 40% south of 10 and maybe 10-20% north of there.

Of course.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281119
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

After an oppressive hot Sunday, let`s welcome this work week with
temperatures trending a few degrees cooler. Relief from widespread
temperatures in the triple-digits is on the horizon...and for a few
locations, it could begin as soon as today.

The cold front that moved through the region yesterday is currently
extending over the coastal waters. Further inland, lingering light
showers still remain with little to no impacts. This boundary will
retreat inland today and become nearly stationary along the coastal
counties. Daytime heating combined with sfc convergence, PWs into
the 1.6 to 2.0 inch range (per TPW Satellite) and a few vort maxes
moving aloft will lead to chances of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Our southern counties and coastal zones will have
the best chances through this evening. Temperature-wise, despite
north to northeast sfc winds, another hot day is expected. However,
we have good news for our far northern counties... highs could
potentially be near to just below 100°F. Despite these slightly
"cooler" temperatures, peak heat indices up to 113F can be expected
today, particularly south of a line from Brenham to Conroe to
Livingston. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in
effect for most of the region through late this evening.

With the boundary finally moving well offshore by Tuesday and north
to northeast winds prevailing, Tuesday is progged to be not as hot
(compared to previous days). Highs will generally run in the upper
90s. Hottest readings with highs at or near 100°F will be possible
across our southwestern counties. More good news is that Tuesday
could potentially be a day with no heat headlines as heat index
values are expected to remain a tad below criteria. HOWEVER, warm
conditions are expected, thus it is important to keep practicing
heat safety if outdoors. With drier air filtering in, partly to
mostly clear skies and north winds, a comfortable night can be
expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. Lows will drop into the upper
60s to upper 70s inland and in the low 80s along the coast. Any
rain/storm chances on Tuesday should remain isolated.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

The second half of the week (Weds-Fri) should be a fairly quiet one
as light NE winds prevail at the lower levels and the elongated mid
to upper trough axis begins setting up along the TX/LA coasts. Will
not be expecting any precipitation during this time frame given the
dry air mass over the region, but this should be changing going in-
to the weekend with the approach of an inverted trough (upper level
short wave) from the east. Deeper moisture (PWs ~2") are progged to
accompany this system...and along with daytime heating and possible
sea breeze activity, this should translate to scattered POPs by Sat
and Sun.

As for temperatures, the above normal high temperature trend should
continue through the period as highs range from the upper 90s to at/
around 100 for most of the CWA (mid 90s at the coast). However, low
temperatures should be closer to normal...in the lower 70s to upper
70s coast (Weds-Fri)...then increasing slightly to mid/upper 70s to
lower 80s coast for the weekend. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A frontal
boundary will stall roughly along and south of I-10 (terminals
south of IAH). A chance of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along and south of this boundary through this evening.
Therefore, have continued with VCSH/VCTS at these terminals for
now. Light north to northeast winds up to around 8 to 12 knots
can be expected today before becoming light and variable late this
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Generally moderate to occasionally light NE winds are expected to
prevail through mid week...with winds and seas higher in and near
scattered storms associated with the slow moving cold front. Seas
could increase by mid week in response to Idalia (forecast to re-
main in the eastern Gulf), but winds should become more light and
variable. A more moderate easterly flow is expected by the end of
the week into the weekend as a weak upper level disturbance moves
in from the east. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100 77 98 72 / 30 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 100 80 98 76 / 40 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 96 82 94 81 / 50 40 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ178-179-197-199-200-210>214-227-237-238-300-313-337-
338-438-439.

Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ226-235-236-335-336-436.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...41

[Cromagnum]

Not that I want any part of Idalia, which is pegged to come in as a Major, but that's such a weird track for August.

[Cpv17]

Not that I want any part of Idalia, which is pegged to come in as a Major, but that's such a weird track for August.

Yep, like an October track. Everything lately has been weird.

[biggerbyte]

Well it's certainly cooler today. The 100 degree weather is not over, as they will return here in just a few days. So the rain that came through last night was bizarre. Apparently it hated Porter. There was activity north and west. When it reached my area it all died off only to completely reform just to my south. I've never seen anything like it. Not a drop.

[Cpv17]

Well it's certainly cooler today. The 100 degree weather is not over, as they will return here in just a few days. So the rain that came through last night was bizarre. Apparently it hated Porter. There was activity north and west. When it reached my area it all died off only to completely reform just to my south. I've never seen anything like it. Not a drop.

Outflow boundary probably killed your chances. Its happened to me many times.

[Cromagnum]

Well it's certainly cooler today. The 100 degree weather is not over, as they will return here in just a few days. So the rain that came through last night was bizarre. Apparently it hated Porter. There was activity north and west. When it reached my area it all died off only to completely reform just to my south. I've never seen anything like it. Not a drop.

Happens to me more times than I can count. From every direction too. Have a storm coming that will split and go around or just evaporate right in front of me.

[DoctorMu]

NE wind and 10-13°F cooler than yesterday at the same time. Today and tomorrow are the best chance to drop below 100°F for the high. We're somewhere between 50-60 days in a row - I lost count.

[jasons2k]

Out west..

[Cromagnum]

Guess we aren't getting anything afterall.