August 2023

[don]

This would be nice LOL.

[Stratton20]

Ah the good old GFS giveth and GFS taketh run, completely gone on the next run

[Cpv17]

Ah the good old GFS giveth and GFS taketh run, completely gone on the next run

Haha yeah at this range it’s unfortunately gonna do a lot of flip flopping regarding the operationals.

[tireman4]

As we are locked in the pattern for quite awhile, take care of yourselves ( hydrating)

[Cromagnum]

[davidiowx]

Haha! Classic

[Cromagnum]

Yep. Front yard is toast. Does not matter how much I water or how much I treat for chinch bugs. This effing summer won and now I can look at a POS lawn until I tear it all out and resod.

[walsean1]

Fingers crossed

[user:null]

While it may not do much for rain chances this week ... notice how recent model runs have been centering the ridge out over the Gulf of Mexico midweek, in contrast to locking it right over TX like the previous bad trends.

[tireman4]

By the way, I love Batiste!!

FXUS64 KHGX 071052
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

♬ "Where are you FROPA? Why can`t I find you? Why have you gone
awayyy? Where are the cool temps, you used to bring me? I need some
60s todayyy!" ♬

I don`t know about y`all, but this summer in particular has me
counting down the days till FROPA season. In case you`re curious,
the last time the City of Houston has seen temperatures at or below
65°F was May 18th...so it`s been a hot minute...err hot months. With
the midlevel high approaching closer to Southeast Texas today and
increasing 500mb heights to 597-598 dam, we`re expecting even hotter
temperatures than yesterday. High temperatures this afternoon will
range from 102-106°F with heat index values in the 107-113°F range.
As a result, an Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for
counties along and north of I-10 with a Heat Advisory elsewhere
through this evening. Sunday wasn`t as hot as we anticipated, and it
may have been due to a shortwave that pushed through in the early
afternoon. It didn`t bring any rainfall, but it did bring in a
stream of thick-ish upper level clouds that may have been just
enough to limit heating by a couple of degrees, especially for
central and southern locations. While models do show another
shortwave moving in today, this one appears to be weaker and should
move offshore quicker so clouds are less likely to impact max
heating today. Still should have some spotty cumulus in the daytime,
but increasing subsidence should keep coverage a little bit less
than yesterday.

Going into Tuesday, the midlevel high looks to weaken a bit as it
moves directly over Southeast Texas. 500mb heights will still be
around 596 dam, so it`ll still be dangerously hot...but ever so
slightly less so than Monday. Tuesday`s temperatures will be more in
the range of 100-104°F, so we`ll likely be able to drop the
Excessive Heat Warning for at least some locations. However, heat
index values will remain solidly in the 107-112°F range, so at least
a Heat Advisory will be in effect. Rain chances continue to remain
relatively nonexistent inland, but isolated showers are possible
offshore in the morning and early afternoon hours. With a fairly
robust subsidence inversion layer nearly spanning from 800mb to
700mb, it`ll be nearly impossible for clouds to extend vertically.

I didn`t forget about you, Aggieland! College Station reached 105°F
on Sunday which tied their daily record high, and also brought them
to 29 days straight of 100+°F temperatures. Today`s high temperature
should be the same or even a degree hotter, which would put their
100+°F streak at 30 days. This would tie for the most consecutive
days of 100+°F temperatures, which is currently held by a 30 day
streak from 1998. Tuesday is a lock to break this record and put
2023 in first place. Another record was tied yesterday in Aggieland
as well, which is the most consecutive days of 105+°F temperatures.
Sunday made it 7 days straight, which tied the record of 7
consecutive days of 105+°F set back in 2000. Today should break that
record...so it`ll be quite the historic day in Aggieland! Bonus
nugget: For those wanting to keep count, our current heat alert
(Excessive Heat Warning and/or Heat Advisory) streak, including
today, stands at 9 days (July 30-August 7). This is our third
extended period of heat alerts with two prior ones of 19 days (June
13-July 1) and 16 days (July 9-July 24) earlier this summer.

With heat alerts remaining in effect for today and additional
advisories/warnings likely being needed throughout the week, please
continue to keep heat safety at the top of your mind. Know the signs
of heat related illnesses, know the locations of the nearest cooling
centers, check on your family/friends/neighbors, drink plenty of
water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the heat, avoid
strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day,
wear light clothing/sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before
you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the
ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for
their paws. Stay safe, stay cool, and stay hydrated.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

There is little to no indication that the current hot and dry weather
trend will be broken in the Wednesday through Sunday time period. With
the generally east-west oriented mid/upper level ridge persisting across
the area, expect to continue to see much of inland Southeast Texas with
high temperatures in an upper 90s to low 100s range and low temperatures
in an upper 70s to lower 80s range. Some record high temperatures and
record high minimum temperature records will continue to be set, and
Heat Advisories along with possible Excessive Heat Warnings will likely
be needed. Almost the entire area looks to unfortunately stay dry as
the best rain chances stay well to the north and east of the area.

Continue to practice heat safety!

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

MVFR ceilings around 1500 feet will continue to impact the
northern sites (CXO and northward) through ~14Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail throughout most of the TAF period. Winds
will again start out southwesterly then become
southerly/southeasterly by the afternoon behind the sea breeze
with gusts near 20 kts at times. Another round of MVFR ceilings
looks to be possible across the northern sites around 09Z on early
Tuesday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas generally in a 2 to 4 foot
range are expected through the forecast period. Winds may exceed 15
knots at times, especially at night, which would warrant caution
flags. Isolated showers and thunderstorms at most may occur, mainly
in the early mornings.

42

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

With fuels remaining dry to critically dry across Southeast Texas
due to the ongoing period of very hot and dry conditions, fire
weather conditions will remain elevated this week. Wind speeds
continue to remain below the Red Flag threshold. Although, the dry
soils along with slim to no rain chances and RH values bottoming out
in the 25-40% range means that caution should still be taken if
working with any flammable materials. Majority of the counties in
Southeast Texas are under a burn ban, so be sure to follow your
local ordinances. The Texas A&M Forest Service forecast continues to
outline most of Southeast TX in a high to very high fire danger risk
through midweek.

Batiste

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Palacios has now recorded a low temperatures of 87 degrees for three
consecutive days (August 4th, 5th and 6th). This has tied their
all-time record high minimum temperature of 87 degrees that has
occurred only six other times since records began in February 1943.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 105 79 104 79 / 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 103 81 102 82 / 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 93 84 92 84 / 10 0 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-
164-176>179-195>200-210>214-300-313.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ226-227-235>238-
335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42

[Stratton20]

Yet another depressing forecast update, se texas is truely cursed when it comes to rain in the summer

[user:null]

A moist inverted trough pushes through South Texas as per GFS and it's within-about a week out (162-178hrs). It has trended stronger compared to previous runs, and if it continues to do so, it provides hopefully wetter conditions in a sooner time frame compared to the previous tropical disturbance solutions.

[Stratton20]

User:Null unfortunately the heat ridge rebuilds during that same time, which is why the disturbance moves into far south texas, need that ridge to be weaker

[jasons2k]

No chance in hell I'm staying in Houston (or Texas) any longer than I have to for work. Our weather absolutely sucks for half of the year every year.

I’m with you. As soon as the youngest graduates, we’re out. Gonna be a long 5 years.

[tireman4]

Outdoor Burn Bans. I have a feeling will be on this list sooner than later ( Harris and Galveston Counties)

[user:null]

User:Null unfortunately the heat ridge rebuilds during that same time, which is why the disturbance moves into far south texas, need that ridge to be weaker

The Aug 13-14th disturbance is indeed a bit stronger and "pokes" farther north in the 12z, so penetrates more into S.Texas, compared to the farther south/weaker previous runs that were more buried in NE Mexico.

Prior to that time, there are forecast storms in the NE. Gulf which can produce upper-level moisture. If strong enough, it can sync with the inverted trough, and create enough of an overall "moisture surge" that erodes the high, and prevents it from escapsulating SE Texas (in a formation similar to depictions on the 12zGFS 300+ hrs out).

Now that's the GFS. CMC doesn't much of anything at all, just a largely elongated high into the SE (though it still generates a small amount of qpf).

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Mostly VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. There is
a brief period for MVFR cigs early Tue morning, but is expected to
lift and scatter out around 15Z. S-SE winds at 10-15 KTS with
gusts of 18-24 KTS at times this afternoon through early tonight.
Winds will then turn S-SW and relax to 5-10 KTS overnight through
Tue morning.

24

[DoctorMu]

The Ensembles, even more so than the Global models, are becoming more confident that about August 18 the DR will finally dissipate...and hopefully doesn't come back.

[DoctorMu]

No chance in hell I'm staying in Houston (or Texas) any longer than I have to for work. Our weather absolutely sucks for half of the year every year.

I’m with you. As soon as the youngest graduates, we’re out. Gonna be a long 5 years.

If a job opening or a "rich uncle" passes - we'd like to move to NC or CO. Decades of Brazos Valley summers - it's time to raise the white flag.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

No chance in hell I'm staying in Houston (or Texas) any longer than I have to for work. Our weather absolutely sucks for half of the year every year.

I’m with you. As soon as the youngest graduates, we’re out. Gonna be a long 5 years.

If a job opening or a "rich uncle" passes - we'd like to move to NC or CO. Decades of Brazos Valley summers - it's time to raise the white flag.

Wyoming and Montana >>>>>>>>>> Idiocy of most local and state CO governments. Trust me.

NC is decent, but I will take upstate SC over NC or Eastern TN over NC. Some of our best friends just finally left North Chicago for an eastern burb of Charlotte. They like it much more.