On the other hand, it hasn’t rained in two months and will probably dump finally on everyone’s Labor Day party…
https://spacecityweather.com/yes-there- ... r-houston/Yes, there finally is a decent shot of rain in the forecast for Houston
August 2023
Oh boy, now they’ve jinxed it.
On the other hand, it hasn’t rained in two months and will probably dump finally on everyone’s Labor Day party…
On the other hand, it hasn’t rained in two months and will probably dump finally on everyone’s Labor Day party…
That could go two ways.
Full on jinx and we get absolutely nothing.
Reverse jinx because it's a holiday weekend and we get some 100 year storm.
Full on jinx and we get absolutely nothing.
Reverse jinx because it's a holiday weekend and we get some 100 year storm.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 311117
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023
The short term is pretty simple. It will be sunny, hot, and dry.
Humidity levels will remain low through Friday. The lower humidity
is helping overnight temperatures drop a little faster, with most
areas falling into the 70s. A few spots north of Houston are
dropping into the 60s again this morning. This is much improved
compared to the steamy mornings we have dealt with for most of the
summer. Afternoon temperatures well into the 90s to around 100F are
expected both today and tomorrow. Still hot but at least the
humidity is low.
There are rain chances in our future! But that is a topic for the
long term discussion.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023
The long term forecast is now focused entirely on days in the
month of September, but...well, I wouldn`t blame you if you looked
at it and thought it was still August...or July...or June. Yes,
for now, we remain focused on the many different flavors of above
average heat we can have here in Southeast Texas. One perk is
that we are at least looking at a stretch of days that we haven`t
seen much of this summer: days that are hotter than average, but
also generate scattered showers and thunderstorms!
Indeed, we`ll be watching with great interest the evolution of a
weak upper low pressure center over Louisiana. It may not be
terribly impressive, but it will force a strengthening upper ridge
to center more over the Central Plains than the Southern Plains,
tamping down 500 mb heights. And, as it gradually drifts westward
over Southeast Texas in the first part of the new week, the "cold"
pool aloft should sit over head, creating a pocket of relative
instability to help fuel the development of afternoon/evening
showers and storms.
I`m increasingly confident that Saturday is not yet that day for
most, except perhaps in the small portion of our area east of the
Houston metro. But Sunday and Monday look to feature some real
strong potential for convective activity - to the point that I`ve
got likely PoPs along the coast above Matagorda Bay and in the far
east. That setup will begin to end midweek as a northern stream
trough breaks down the Plains ridge and draws this upper low to
the north and out of the region. Still, by this point, we`ll be
solidly back into an onshore flow pattern, and we`ll find
ourselves in a break in the subtropical ridge, with one center
forced off to the Southeast US, while another lobe rebuilds over
Northwest Mexico. This gives a more...traditional summertime upper
air setup, one that supports the development of isolated to
scattered showers and storms daily.
Now, does this action up high also have an impact on our expected
temperatures? Well, my open kinda spoils that the heat is not
leaving us. But it`s not all hopeless. 850 mb temps are still
looking quite high - there`s continued broad consensus in the
ensemble data that we`ll be looking at unseasonably high temps
just off the deck, exceeding the 90th percentile. Because of
that, my confidence remains high that temperatures will continue
to be above normal. But, without a continuous source of subsidence
from an indomitable subtropical ridge centered right over our
heads, that may be what we need to be simply looking at decidedly
above average temperatures, and not continuous record high temps.
And, of course, on days when your specific location is lucky
enough to snag a shower or storm, that should manage to chop down
temperatures for that day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023
VFR conditions and generally light winds will prevail through the
TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023
Light winds and low seas will prevail into the weekend. Some long
period swells from Idalia will gradually wind down through the day
today, but do not appear to significantly change the setup for
seas or rip currents. A more prevalent onshore wind will become
established late this weekend and early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023
Winds are expected to be less gusty today, keeping our region below
Red Flag Warning criteria. However, conditions remain very dry and
hot. Relative humidity values are likely to drop below 30% once
again today and tomorrow. Dry fuels remains abundant and burn bans
remain in place for all SE TX counties. Rainfall chances gradually
increase by the weekend into early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023
Palacios saw a high temperature of 102 degrees yesterday. This
was a record high not only for August 30, but for the month of
August overall. This mark eclipses the previous monthly record of
101 degrees, which had been reached on numerous occasions,
including the previous three days. As for all-time high
temperatures, 102 comes in as a tie for the fifth-highest mark on
record for the city.
This August is on track to be one of the driest on record for
some of our major climate sites. If no more measurable rain
falls...
-College Station`s 0.06 inches will be their 4th driest August on
record (dating back to 1882)
-City of Houston`s 0.01 inches will be their 2nd driest August on
record (dating back to 1888)
-Houston Hobby`s trace will be their driest August on record
(dating back to 1930)
-Galveston`s 0.27 inches will be their 6th driest August on
record (dating back to 1871)
42/Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100 73 100 70 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 100 76 101 76 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 94 81 95 80 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 311117
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023
The short term is pretty simple. It will be sunny, hot, and dry.
Humidity levels will remain low through Friday. The lower humidity
is helping overnight temperatures drop a little faster, with most
areas falling into the 70s. A few spots north of Houston are
dropping into the 60s again this morning. This is much improved
compared to the steamy mornings we have dealt with for most of the
summer. Afternoon temperatures well into the 90s to around 100F are
expected both today and tomorrow. Still hot but at least the
humidity is low.
There are rain chances in our future! But that is a topic for the
long term discussion.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023
The long term forecast is now focused entirely on days in the
month of September, but...well, I wouldn`t blame you if you looked
at it and thought it was still August...or July...or June. Yes,
for now, we remain focused on the many different flavors of above
average heat we can have here in Southeast Texas. One perk is
that we are at least looking at a stretch of days that we haven`t
seen much of this summer: days that are hotter than average, but
also generate scattered showers and thunderstorms!
Indeed, we`ll be watching with great interest the evolution of a
weak upper low pressure center over Louisiana. It may not be
terribly impressive, but it will force a strengthening upper ridge
to center more over the Central Plains than the Southern Plains,
tamping down 500 mb heights. And, as it gradually drifts westward
over Southeast Texas in the first part of the new week, the "cold"
pool aloft should sit over head, creating a pocket of relative
instability to help fuel the development of afternoon/evening
showers and storms.
I`m increasingly confident that Saturday is not yet that day for
most, except perhaps in the small portion of our area east of the
Houston metro. But Sunday and Monday look to feature some real
strong potential for convective activity - to the point that I`ve
got likely PoPs along the coast above Matagorda Bay and in the far
east. That setup will begin to end midweek as a northern stream
trough breaks down the Plains ridge and draws this upper low to
the north and out of the region. Still, by this point, we`ll be
solidly back into an onshore flow pattern, and we`ll find
ourselves in a break in the subtropical ridge, with one center
forced off to the Southeast US, while another lobe rebuilds over
Northwest Mexico. This gives a more...traditional summertime upper
air setup, one that supports the development of isolated to
scattered showers and storms daily.
Now, does this action up high also have an impact on our expected
temperatures? Well, my open kinda spoils that the heat is not
leaving us. But it`s not all hopeless. 850 mb temps are still
looking quite high - there`s continued broad consensus in the
ensemble data that we`ll be looking at unseasonably high temps
just off the deck, exceeding the 90th percentile. Because of
that, my confidence remains high that temperatures will continue
to be above normal. But, without a continuous source of subsidence
from an indomitable subtropical ridge centered right over our
heads, that may be what we need to be simply looking at decidedly
above average temperatures, and not continuous record high temps.
And, of course, on days when your specific location is lucky
enough to snag a shower or storm, that should manage to chop down
temperatures for that day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023
VFR conditions and generally light winds will prevail through the
TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023
Light winds and low seas will prevail into the weekend. Some long
period swells from Idalia will gradually wind down through the day
today, but do not appear to significantly change the setup for
seas or rip currents. A more prevalent onshore wind will become
established late this weekend and early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023
Winds are expected to be less gusty today, keeping our region below
Red Flag Warning criteria. However, conditions remain very dry and
hot. Relative humidity values are likely to drop below 30% once
again today and tomorrow. Dry fuels remains abundant and burn bans
remain in place for all SE TX counties. Rainfall chances gradually
increase by the weekend into early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023
Palacios saw a high temperature of 102 degrees yesterday. This
was a record high not only for August 30, but for the month of
August overall. This mark eclipses the previous monthly record of
101 degrees, which had been reached on numerous occasions,
including the previous three days. As for all-time high
temperatures, 102 comes in as a tie for the fifth-highest mark on
record for the city.
This August is on track to be one of the driest on record for
some of our major climate sites. If no more measurable rain
falls...
-College Station`s 0.06 inches will be their 4th driest August on
record (dating back to 1882)
-City of Houston`s 0.01 inches will be their 2nd driest August on
record (dating back to 1888)
-Houston Hobby`s trace will be their driest August on record
(dating back to 1930)
-Galveston`s 0.27 inches will be their 6th driest August on
record (dating back to 1871)
42/Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100 73 100 70 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 100 76 101 76 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 94 81 95 80 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Adios to the worst month of every year!
Team #NeverSummer
I will believe that forecast when rain is actively pounding my noggin. Until then...
Don’t expect much of a pattern change till we get to October. September looks to still be well above average temp wise but I do think we will see slightly better rain chances in September than we did this month. But don’t expect any decent changes till October. I still think a lot of us will go into the D4 exceptional drought over the next few weeks.
With todays latest drought update, I’m now included in the D4 drought. Yikes 
Already there where I live.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2023 9:45 amDon’t expect much of a pattern change till we get to October. September looks to still be well above average temp wise but I do think we will see slightly better rain chances in September than we did this month. But don’t expect any decent changes till October. I still think a lot of us will go into the D4 exceptional drought over the next few weeks.
Adios, August. Don't come back!
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