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jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 11:33 am We need to keep an eye on this one.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 11:33 am We need to keep an eye on this one.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 11:42 am Of course the system will stay south of us, yet another tease by the models, at this point ill believe rain when i see it falling from the sky, what an absolute joke, mother nature is about to catch these hands lol

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 11:42 am Of course the system will stay south of us, yet another tease by the models, at this point ill believe rain when i see it falling from the sky, what an absolute joke, mother nature is about to catch these hands lol

sambucol wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 11:53 am

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 11:33 am We need to keep an eye on this one.

Yes. That’s the one I’m most concerned about.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 11:42 am Of course the system will stay south of us, yet another tease by the models, at this point ill believe rain when i see it falling from the sky, what an absolute joke, mother nature is about to catch these hands lol

user:null wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 12:12 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 11:42 am Of course the system will stay south of us, yet another tease by the models, at this point ill believe rain when i see it falling from the sky, what an absolute joke, mother nature is about to catch these hands lol

Texas is cursed, and the curse has spread well into Louisiana and Mississippi for the time being. It's impossible to get good trends here, nothing good ever happens, impossible. The EURO is "the most accurate model" but it will flop and fail if it means the detrimental solution verifies here.

davidiowx wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 12:35 pm I know we are all desperate for rain but it is not wise to wave the flag on this one yet. Things could change tonight/tomorrow. If we are sitting here Sunday and it's the same then we can likely say this one isn't going to help the rain situation.

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 12:03 pm

sambucol wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 11:53 am

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 11:33 am We need to keep an eye on this one.

Yes. That’s the one I’m most concerned about.

I don’t think that one will make it into the Gulf.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 1:06 pm Im not sure that yellow lemonade is the spot to watch near the antilles, seems like the one models are picking up on is a CAG setup, will see if the NHC highlights it soon since models and ensembles are moving up development inside of 192-216 hours, will see about that one, could be a gulf threat or could just get yanked north and then NNE by a trough

Gulf spot up to 40% now but still not coming here

txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 1:26 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 1:06 pm Im not sure that yellow lemonade is the spot to watch near the antilles, seems like the one models are picking up on is a CAG setup, will see if the NHC highlights it soon since models and ensembles are moving up development inside of 192-216 hours, will see about that one, could be a gulf threat or could just get yanked north and then NNE by a trough

Gulf spot up to 40% now but still not coming here

Per ABC 13 those other systems will steer well clear of the United States…

“All of these would track to the northwest with no threat to land.“

https://abc13.com/hurricane-season-trop ... /13303907/

don wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 1:33 pm

txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 1:26 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 1:06 pm Im not sure that yellow lemonade is the spot to watch near the antilles, seems like the one models are picking up on is a CAG setup, will see if the NHC highlights it soon since models and ensembles are moving up development inside of 192-216 hours, will see about that one, could be a gulf threat or could just get yanked north and then NNE by a trough

Gulf spot up to 40% now but still not coming here

Per ABC 13 those other systems will steer well clear of the United States…

“All of these would track to the northwest with no threat to land.“

https://abc13.com/hurricane-season-trop ... /13303907/

We're talking about the system that's about to enter the Gulf,that one WILL impact land.

The only hope for us locally in SE Texas would be the ridge being weaker early next week than what models show right now,allowing a last minute turn to the right up the coast. (Claudette 2003,Beta 2020,Nicholas 2021 as examples)

I'll like to see some model runs once this is an invest before i close the door completely on it though.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 1:45 pm Why is the development zone for the GULF system still including the upper texas coast? Im very surprised the nhc hasn’t shifted that zone south