2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[jasons2k]

Interesting:

https://x.com/hurricaneaddict/status/16 ... LK8-EahY_A

[jasons2k]

That cant be a real post, their are no additional storm threats to the gulf beyond idalia, sounds like cheveron has absolutely zero clue what they are talking about, i call serious BS

Same here. Maybe the second week of September but that’s way too far out.

Turns out my friend has a reading comprehension issue - I’ll leave it that

[Stratton20]

Looks like the first half of september looks to be quiet in the gulf, dont see much except for a good signal for a MDR/ fish storm, other than that, nothing

[tireman4]

Senor 57 on Idalia and where she goes from here..

Yes, Idalia looks like a frontal low this morning. Recon is finding some strong wind behind it that look more like cool air flowing offshore behind a front. No convection anywhere near its center. I've been monitoring sustained wind and gusts the past 2 days. I could not find any hurricane force sustained wind inland over Florida. That's what TWC was saying in the past hour. Basically, winds inland were TS strength. I could not find any sustained 40 mph wind across SC or NC. Possibly very near the coast at a coastal buoy. There were wind gusts to hurricane strength that almost reached the Georgia border. As the eyewall started a replacement cycle, all stronger winds lifted above the surface. These strong winds aloft would occasionally dip down to the surface, producing 80-90 mph gusts in areas with sub-39 mph sustained wind. We saw something like that with Rita in 2005 and Lily in 2002.

Next question involves Idalia's track once it passes Bermuda this weekend. ICON stalls it near Bermuda next Thursday and weakens it to a remnant low. GFS takes it northward and merges it with a front well south of Nova Scotia next Thursday. Euro has it stalled not far east of Cape Cod late next week as a strong TS or H (don't like that scenario for personal reasons). I choose the slow northward movement well out to sea next week. That agrees with most guidance.

[Stratton20]

GFS has a caribbean cruiser lol

[Stratton20]

Latest Cansips outlook, if this verifies, the MDR and portions of the Western gulf may need to be watched very closely this month

[tireman4]

Gert will not die...

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gert):
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized during the
past several hours in association with an area of low-pressure
located several hundred miles north-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands. If this current trend continues, a tropical
depression is likely to form today before upper-level winds
become increasingly unfavorable over the weekend. The system is
forecast to meander over the subtropical Atlantic through this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[captainbarbossa19]

Euro has a 925 mb system east of the Bahamas in 10 days. I don't remember the last time I saw the Euro show such low pressure.

[tireman4]

Gert is a tropical storm again..

AL, 06, 2023090118, , BEST, 0, 280N, 546W, 35, 1006, TS

[Cpv17]

Euro has a 925 mb system east of the Bahamas in 10 days. I don't remember the last time I saw the Euro show such low pressure.

That’s nuts for the Euro to show that but it’s definitely possible.

[Stratton20]

The EPS is absolutely ballistic, ice never seen so many members show a powerful hurricane like what the EPS is showing, thankfully this doesnt have a chance of getting in the gulf otherwise that would be major trouble

[Cpv17]

The EPS is absolutely ballistic, ice never seen so many members show a powerful hurricane like what the EPS is showing, thankfully this doesnt have a chance of getting in the gulf otherwise that would be major trouble

1961, I believe, was the last time we got directly hit by a big time major. My parents tell me stories about Carla all the time. Extremely fascinating stuff. It was almost a cat 5 at landfall. We’ve been extremely lucky the past several years.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 wow! And i even saw a sub 900 mb on that EPS run, absolutely unbelievable, i doubt we will ever see an ensemble rub like that again

[sambucol]

The EPS is absolutely ballistic, ice never seen so many members show a powerful hurricane like what the EPS is showing, thankfully this doesnt have a chance of getting in the gulf otherwise that would be major trouble

How do you know it doesn’t have a chance of getting into the Gulf? I’m praying it doesn’t, but it’s a long way in there in model land.

[Stratton20]

sambucol because modes show it developing very fast, and the quicker it develops the more its likely going to feel a weakness in the bermuda high that will allow it to recurve, even if it takes longer to develop it will very unlikely not get into the gulf because of a strong ridge building over the country, also have weakness east of florida, this will either threaten the se us or recurve out to sea

[Ptarmigan]

The hurricane spigot has been turned on.

[captainbarbossa19]

sambucol because modes show it developing very fast, and the quicker it develops the more its likely going to feel a weakness in the bermuda high that will allow it to recurve, even if it takes longer to develop it will very unlikely not get into the gulf because of a strong ridge building over the country, also have weakness east of florida, this will either threaten the se us or recurve out to sea

I would agree that this will likely curve out to sea, but this system will require at least 10 days to even start approaching the Gulf if it were to head this way. I have very low confidence in upper air patterns modeled at this time frame. I would not throw out any possibility at this point. We should know a whole lot more in 5-7 days where this is headed though.

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 im pretty confident this wont reach the gulf, models are in good agreement on their to be troughing over the eastern US, now obviously strengthen and position of the trough could have big implications for the SE us, but also have a strengthening ridge over the central US, that would be very hard to get a system to move into the gulf with that kind of pattern

[sambucol]

It’s 95L now.

[Dls2010r]

RIP Jimmy!!!!!