jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Aug 08, 2023 9:32 pm
The west coat of Florida is extremely shallow and that did nothing to inhibit Charley or Matthew. With the right conditions, a Cat 5 would have no problem maintaining that intensity right up until landfall in Galveston.
Remember Harvey? It’s not much different in Port A. Ike was also strengthening at landfall.
Took the words out of my mouth.
Harvey exploded into a CAT4 just before smashing Port Aransas and Rockport.
Thank You for all the responses. So what your saying is no a cat 5 won’t build off shore but if it comes from the ocean or something then yes it will explode.
Well not exactly. I think what we’re saying is that:
- any storm has the potential to intensify right up to landfall on the TX coast (Harvey, Claudette, Humberto)
- an already developed storm could easily maintain its intensity right up to, and in some cases even beyond landfall (Ike, Carla, Indianola)
- of course this all depends on atmospheric factors at the time, as we have seen, our fair share of storms weaken due to factors like dry air ingestion (Rita, Don)
Every storm is different.
I think the point is this notion that — because the water around Galveston and Galveston bay is shallow — that would somehow prevent a hurricane from achieving or maintaining Cat 5 status - well that’s just not true, unless the storm basically stalls and turns over the whole water column for a few days. Then, yeah, but that’s not typical.
Now, offshore, yes water depth and how deep warm waters contribute to Oceanic Heat Content does make a difference. But that’s really a different situation with different physics/fluids at work in those deeper water depths, because cooler eddies and upwelling become more likely. For the purposes of nearshore intensity impacts, the shallow shelf waters don’t really change the impact. The main concern with shallow shelf waters is the increased chances of storm surge.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 6:27 pm
Its looking like the basin will stay shut down through pretty much the remainder of august, September will be the month to watch for trouble
Things will get going after August 20th, most likely.
Cpv17 maybe but im not seeing a whole lot or a big trigger mechanism ( MJO, CCKW’s ) that will get things going, most of the convection is focused in the EPAC, going to be hard to get things going here until we can get that to switch up, i do expect things to pick up in september, just not sure about the remainder of august though
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 6:48 pm
Cpv17 maybe but im not seeing a whole lot or a big trigger mechanism ( MJO, CCKW’s ) that will get things going, most of the convection is focused in the EPAC, going to be hard to get things going here until we can get that to switch up, i do expect things to pick up in september, just not sure about the remainder of august though
You’ll start seeing the models flip the switch here pretty soon. It can literally happen in one day. This is the time of the year when you start seeing a lot of season cancel or season is gonna be a bust type of posts.
So it looks like a tropical wave near the bahamas is expected to move westward over the next 4-5 days, looks like it may give us some moisture for rain, though interesting to see the 18z Euro thro hour 90 has a stronger surface reflection with the wave, prior runs had nothing, hmm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 6:48 pm
Cpv17 maybe but im not seeing a whole lot or a big trigger mechanism ( MJO, CCKW’s ) that will get things going, most of the convection is focused in the EPAC, going to be hard to get things going here until we can get that to switch up, i do expect things to pick up in september, just not sure about the remainder of august though
You’ll start seeing the models flip the switch here pretty soon. It can literally happen in one day. This is the time of the year when you start seeing a lot of season cancel or season is gonna be a bust type of posts.
99°F record high in Orlando today.
90°F+ water just off the Florida coast. Once things flip and light the match...watch out. Any TX could bomb out.
That would suggest given the relative quiet we've had that after about August 20 we'll see on tropical system after the other as the GoM and eventually Caribbean are open for business. And the savings are hot, hot, hot! (like the water temps)
Yep looks like we are in for a roller coaster ride after the 20th! After a very close call with Laura back in 2020, im definitely concerned that we might not be so lucky this time
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 10, 2023 11:51 am
Yep looks like we are in for a roller coaster ride after the 20th! After a very close call with Laura back in 2020, im definitely concerned that we might not be so lucky this time
Man, I cannot believe these Gulf temps. Beginning to see widespread low 90’s now. Just flat out bananas. These higher winds we’ve been having are really saving the western Gulf temps from soaring. Parts of the western Gulf along the immediate coastline are actually slightly below normal.
