July 2023

[tireman4]

Will it be hot? Will it be wet? What shall July bring?

[DoctorMu]

"So, you're saying there's a chance?..."



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
337 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Same story different day. Above normal temperatures will persist
this weekend with strong ridging centered to our east. Guidance is
generally pointing toward a narrow wedge of slightly drier air &
dewpoints nudging in across western parts of the CWA on Saturday.
This`ll probably keep heat index readings slightly below the 108F
advisory criteria. After coordinating with surrounding offices, feel
it`s a decent enough time to begin the process of paring back the
Heat Advisory.

Plan for now is to let the advisory expire this evening for
locations roughly west of Madisonville-Sargent. Further east, with
the exception of the immediate Gulf coastal zones, we`ll keep it
going through Saturday where probabilities are higher that we`ll
still see indices top out in the 105-110 range. This includes the
Houston metro area. Regardless of whether your particular area is in
an advisory or not...it`s important to take the usual heat
precautions if you have outdoor plans over the holiday weekend. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

The pattern is a-changing! But will the pattern change enough to
bring meaningful heat relief and widespread much needed rain?
Let`s talk about it! The UL ridging that has plagued the Lone
Star State since the middle of June will finally start to breakdown
on Sunday. Meanwhile, a relatively well stacked ML/UL trough will
dig southward over the Great Lakes and Midwest, acting to further
erode the ridge over our region and gradually bring UL pressure
height anomalies from above normal to near average during the
Sunday to Monday time frame. The ridge is expected to remain
suppressive enough to limit PoPs on Sunday with only slight PoPs
in our grids over our coastal counties. However, as ridging
continues to subside, diurnal and mesoscale processes such as
daytime heating and the formation of sea breeze boundaries could
be enough to spark scattered shower and thunderstorm activity,
particularly over the southern half of the CWA, by Monday and
Tuesday. So does this mean meaningful heat relief and rain for
most neighborhoods? Unfortunately not really. Temperatures/HIs
aren`t expected to be at heat advisory status, but it will still
be quite hot. Widespread afternoon temperatures in the mid-90s
with heat index values of 103-107 are expected. Still hot enough
to practice heat safety precautions! Regarding rainfall, Monday`s
PoPs range from 20-30 percent over our southeastern counties,
decreasing to ~10 percent in our northwestern-most counties. The
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms increases for your
4th of July. Not an all day washout but certainly a chance that
mother nature will provide her own firework display in the form of
thunderstorms. Tuesday`s PoPs range from near 50 percent at
Galveston, 30-40 percent in the Houston metro, to just 10-20
percent in the Brazos Valley.

The Wednesday-Thursday time frame is a little trickier forecast
wise. There are no strong signals for a fundamentally different
ML/UL pattern on Wednesday and Thursday. However, global
deterministic guidance continue to depict a surge of deep tropical
moisture from the Gulf suggesting that PoPs will increase further
as we head into the second half of the week. However, QPF
ensembles are not impressed with the prospect of widespread
rainfall. That being said, the added PWAT should at least increase
the chance of seeing some locally heavy downpours later in the
week. We continue show ~40-60 PoPs (lower in our northern
counties) on Wednesday. Thursday`s PoPs remain ~40-60 percent for
the whole CWA. Temps still look hot, though normally "bad" for
southeast Texas standards with highs generally in the mid-90s and
HI values 103-106.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Generally tough to beat a forecast of persistence. VFR conditions
will prevail into the overnight hours followed by some patchy/intermittent
800-2000ft ceilings a few hours either side of sunrise to the
nw/w of the metro area. VFR again areawide by mid morning Sat. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Onshore flow will remain light to moderate through the forecast
period. Winds could occasionally reach caution flag levels during
the overnight hours. Seas of 2-4 feet are expected through Monday
or Tuesday. However, a persistent fetch is expected to result in
increasing seas by Tuesday or Wednesday. Seas by Wednesday and
Thursday are expected to reach 4-6 feet. In addition, the chance
of showers and thunderstorms will also increase as the week
progresses, though mostly dry conditions are expected through at
least Saturday, if not Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 79 99 79 97 / 0 10 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 83 90 82 90 / 0 0 0 20

&&

[user:null]

People on S2K already stating that early July rain chances are decreasing. Texas truly is a cursed state.

(caveat: if their predictions verify).

[DoctorMu]

The QPF progged is less than yesterday, but still there.

[DoctorMu]

I would characterize the next week as just getting back towards normal. Hot and slight chance of rain every day.

[Cpv17]

I would characterize the next week as just getting back towards normal. Hot and slight chance of rain every day.

Yep. Channel 13 now has 60% Wednesday, 70% Thursday, and 60% Friday. Don’t know what the heck they’re seeing. The WPC barely has a quarter to a half inch of rain for us over the next 7 days.

[Ptarmigan]

I would characterize the next week as just getting back towards normal. Hot and slight chance of rain every day.

Yep. Channel 13 now has 60% Wednesday, 70% Thursday, and 60% Friday. Don’t know what the heck they’re seeing. The WPC barely has a quarter to a half inch of rain for us over the next 7 days.

NWS Houston is forecasted 70% chance of rain on Thursday.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=HGX

Code: Select all

TXZ213-010900-
Inland Harris-
Including the city of Houston
843 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...Mostly clear early this evening, then becoming
mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Heat index values up to 105 early early this evening.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Hot with highs in the upper 90s. South
winds 5 to 10 mph. Heat index values up to 110.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming
mostly cloudy. Humid with lows in the upper 70s. South winds 5 to
10 mph. Heat index values up to 108 early in the evening.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Hot with highs in the upper 90s. South
winds 5 to 10 mph. Heat index values up to 107.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s. South winds
5 to 10 mph. Heat index values up to 105 early in the evening.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly sunny with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Hot with
highs in the upper 90s. Chance of rain 30 percent. Heat index
values up to 105.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s.
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming
partly sunny. A chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Hot with highs in the mid 90s. Chance of rain
50 percent. Heat index values up to 105.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Hot with highs in the mid 90s. Chance of rain
50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of thunderstorms. A chance
of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Hot with highs in the mid 90s. Chance of rain 70 percent. Heat
index values up to 105.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers in the
evening. Lows in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. A chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Hot with highs in the upper 90s.
Chance of rain 50 percent. Heat index values up to 110.

$$

[Cpv17]

I would characterize the next week as just getting back towards normal. Hot and slight chance of rain every day.

Yep. Channel 13 now has 60% Wednesday, 70% Thursday, and 60% Friday. Don’t know what the heck they’re seeing. The WPC barely has a quarter to a half inch of rain for us over the next 7 days.

NWS Houston is forecasted 70% chance of rain on Thursday.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=HGX

Code: Select all

TXZ213-010900-
Inland Harris-
Including the city of Houston
843 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...Mostly clear early this evening, then becoming
mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Heat index values up to 105 early early this evening.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Hot with highs in the upper 90s. South
winds 5 to 10 mph. Heat index values up to 110.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming
mostly cloudy. Humid with lows in the upper 70s. South winds 5 to
10 mph. Heat index values up to 108 early in the evening.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Hot with highs in the upper 90s. South
winds 5 to 10 mph. Heat index values up to 107.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s. South winds
5 to 10 mph. Heat index values up to 105 early in the evening.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly sunny with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Hot with
highs in the upper 90s. Chance of rain 30 percent. Heat index
values up to 105.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s.
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming
partly sunny. A chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Hot with highs in the mid 90s. Chance of rain
50 percent. Heat index values up to 105.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Hot with highs in the mid 90s. Chance of rain
50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of thunderstorms. A chance
of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Hot with highs in the mid 90s. Chance of rain 70 percent. Heat
index values up to 105.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers in the
evening. Lows in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. A chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Hot with highs in the upper 90s.
Chance of rain 50 percent. Heat index values up to 110.

$$

I just don’t see it. I think they’re jumping the gun.

[Stratton20]

I think40-50% is more respectable, the mesocale models will be more reliable for rain than the global models

[user:null]

The CMC run has got to be the ugliest model by far this night. No contest.

The EURO is the most generous regarding QPF for 4th of July week. Hopefully the upgrade means that it is so accurate.

The GFS is almost like the EURO, but the QPF always has this tendency to "shy away" from penetrating inland into the state: instead, it just "hugs" the coast ... well, at least until the epic during the 240ish period.

[user:null]

I think40-50% is more respectable, the mesocale models will be more reliable for rain than the global models

Definitely true. It's just that I do not like the output that is shown on the CMC at all. I'm not sure how accurate that model is compared to either the EURO or the GFS. But it just feels like Texas is so cursed during summer that the worst solutions always verify.

[Stratton20]

user:null im not even really sure what the CMC is good at, definitely not better than the GFS and Euro for sure though

[Cpv17]

user:null im not even really sure what the CMC is good at, definitely not better than the GFS and Euro for sure though

It’s good at seeing cold dense shallow air during the winter.

[Rip76]

Another day of cloudless skies.

So depressing.

[Stratton20]

Global models are looking depressing, they re establish the desth ridge over texas after the first week of july, looking like a crap month of weather like what june was

[Cpv17]

Global models are looking depressing, they re establish the desth ridge over texas after the first week of july, looking like a crap month of weather like what june was

Yeah. The models been suggesting that already for the past few days.

[user:null]

^^^Figures.

Texas truly is a cursed/forsaken state. We'll see who scores with the rain chances this coming 4th of July period, as well as what predictions roll through that time. Till then, I'm out.

[Cpv17]

We better hope we get some decent rains around here this first week of July cuz if not it could get ugly barring some tropical relief. Temps are gonna go right back up to where they’re at now by the second week of the month. Really terrible weather pattern we’re in.

[DoctorMu]

user:null im not even really sure what the CMC is good at, definitely not better than the GFS and Euro for sure though

It’s good at seeing cold dense shallow air during the winter.

and predicting wintry mischief north of Hwy 1*5.

[DoctorMu]

Another day of cloudless skies.

So depressing.

We've actually had clouds today, giving us a shred of hope.

DP of 68°F. So, if feels less like the surface of the sun out there.