July 2023

[Stratton20]

I would love a few snow events, but definitely dont ever want a repeat of february 2021, that sucked alot

[Cpv17]

I would love a few snow events, but definitely dont ever want a repeat of february 2021, that sucked alot

I’d take another cold snap but this time I would want some snow. I didn’t hardly get anything in Feb 21’. Just give me 20’s with 6” of snow and I’ll be satisfied.

[Cromagnum]

Brutal heat all week. This is one of the worst summers lately, right up there with 2011 and 2013.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 311139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

With the strong mid/upper level ridge building back into the area,
look for widespread inland high temperatures in the triple digits
with some well inland locations (generally north of I-10 and west of
the Highway 59/69 corridor) possibly approaching 105 degrees today
and again tomorrow. Locations along the immediate coast will
continue to see highs in the low to mid 90s. Afternoon mixing will
allow dew points to fall into the 60s across inland areas, and this
will keep highest heat index values mainly in a 108-112 degree
range. With highs up north getting close to 105, will go ahead and
issue an Excessive Heat Warning for today. The Heat Advisory remains
in effect for the rest of the area today, and for the entire area on
Tuesday. Inland overnight lows will continue to hover in the upper
70s to around 80, with low 80s expected along the coast. As for rain
chances, we will need to monitor a southward moving remnant MCV and
possible outflow boundaries that could generate mainly late
afternoon through evening storms for parts of our northern and
eastern counties.

Heat safety precautions remain critical. Taking protective actions
such as remaining hydrated and avoiding strenuous activity during
the hottest parts of the day can be life-saving! Heat is the number
one weather-related cause of death across the U.S. each year. 42

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

With the aforementioned strong midlevel ridge remaining generally
in place for at least the rest of the week, the main story for SE
TX should continue to surround the potential for excessive heat.
By Wednesday, the center of the ridge axis will remain nearly
overhead, as maximum H500 values continue to reach around 598 dam.
With 850mb temperatures concurrently reaching around 23 degC,
another day with widespread temperatures in the triple digits can
be expected while the presence of the ridge also works to stifle
any mentionable chances of diurnal convection. Highs may approach
as high as 105 in some locations, which may necessitate another
Excessive Heat Warning. However, with dew points mixing out into
the 60s during the afternoon hours, maximum heat index values will
remain around 108-110. Overnight lows should continue to hover
just under 80 inland and in the low 80s along the immediate coast.

A gradual westward retreat of the prevailing ridge will occur
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. While
widespread triple digit highs and heat index values of 110 remain
in the forecast for the foreseeable future, temperatures should
ever so gradually fall as we approach the weekend. Additionally,
this should open up the potential for some diurnally driven
thunderstorms during the afternoon hours as the sea breeze
advances inland, although coverage appears at the current moment
to remain scattered at best and confined to locations south of the
I-10 corridor. All in all, it will still remain quite hot and Heat
Advisories at a minimum should be needed at least through the
duration of the long term period as things currently stand.

Not much relief appears to be in sight as the Climate Prediction
Center continues to favor above normal temperatures across the
area well into August in its latest outlook.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

VFR with mainly S to SE winds at 5 to 10 knots. Isolated SHRA/TSRA could
develop later this afternoon through this evening, but not confident
enough on location and extent to mention in the TAFs. 42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Light to moderate onshore winds and 1-3 foot seas will persist for
the foreseeable future. Rainfall chances will remain minimal
through mid-week, after which chances will gradually increase with
scattered storms expected to develop during the morning and
afternoon hours each day. Wind speeds do not look to approach
caution thresholds throughout the week.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 104 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 103 80 104 80 / 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 92 82 92 82 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-
164-176>179-195>198.

Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>198.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ199-200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cady

[DoctorMu]

I'm still seeing a weakness in the DR (The Force) in the Aug 8-9 time frame. There is potential for rain with an approaching FROPA then, that is sure to fizzle. Just where is the question.

[Stratton20]

the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are definitely trending in a positive direction in terms of precipitation for the state and here locally

[jasons2k]

I'm still seeing a weakness in the DR (The Force) in the Aug 8-9 time frame. There is potential for rain with an approaching FROPA then, that is sure to fizzle. Just where is the question.

I’ve been on Twitter too much. I kept clicking that .gif trying to get the sound to work so I could here Obi-Wan say that.

Now I need to search it lol

Edit: saving y’all the trouble:
https://youtu.be/EKu7TYWNxqA

[user:null]

the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are definitely trending in a positive direction in terms of precipitation for the state and here locally

The GFS depiction (all runs so far today) is ideal. The 12zCMC is hot garbage. The 12zEURO is not as ideal as the GFS, but at least allows room for improvement compared to the CMC.

[Stratton20]

That 18z GFS run is really nice, the ridge never builds back in on the run, keeps us in an unsettled pattern the entire run, if only we could lock that in

[DoctorMu]

the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are definitely trending in a positive direction in terms of precipitation for the state and here locally

The GFS depiction (all runs so far today) is ideal. The 12zCMC is hot garbage. The 12zEURO is not as ideal as the GFS, but at least allows room for improvement compared to the CMC.

This is my "weather porn" pinup for now:

[jasons2k]

Well well. Beaumont gets lucky again, as usual.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It’s time like these I’m happy to be on well water

[Rip76]

This is my "weather porn" pinup for now:


[/quote]

I’m printing this out and hanging it on the wall like my brother’s Farrah poster.

[Ptarmigan]

This is my "weather porn" pinup for now:

I’m printing this out and hanging it on the wall like my brother’s Farrah poster.
[/quote]

Let's hope for that.

[DoctorMu]

Local KBTX weather "caved" on Aug 7-9, upping scattered showers chance to 30%. It's over a week away, but there is a glimmer of hope.

[DoctorMu]

It's 10 pm at night and still 96° degrees with a 103°F heat index.

106°F high today. Tomorrow could be worse.

I feel like we're in the middle of an 1883 episode!

[Cpv17]

It's 10 pm at night and still 96° degrees with a 103°F heat index.

106°F high today. Tomorrow could be worse.

I feel like we're in the middle of an 1883 episode!

It’s 86°F here. Don’t know how it could still be 96°F there. That doesn’t make any sense.

[Cpv17]

It’s still 99°F in Huntsville with a small pocket of 100°F temps just NNE off there. What in the living hell .. that’s nuts…

[Stratton20]

How is that even possible wtf