July 2023

[DoctorMu]

"Climate change is natural" is a baseless argument and really is nothing more than a deflection: natural or anthropogenic, it still poses impeding factors that civilization has to adapt, deal with, mitigate, etc.

CO2 - it does what it does. Absorbs radiation energy in the infrared range with a long half-life. The ramifications locally are complex and heterogenous. We do know if warms night temps, encourages periods of extreme weather. turbocharges ocean temps, feeds hurricanes already formed with more energy and a greater risk of becoming a CAT4 or 5. Life on Earth will survive, but the economic, human, plant and animal life impacts are and will be significant. Over the next 20-30 years we can solve it.

[Cromagnum]

All these popcorn showers are nothing but a tease. I have seen rain falling from my backyard in one direction or another on a daily basis, but never strike gold.

[DoctorMu]

I'm just happy to see a few clouds to partially block the sun. There's no hope of the seabreeze making it here.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 272048
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Another hot day with afternoon temperatures from the upper 80s to
near 100F and heat indices mainly in the triple digits. Slow-moving
isolated to scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will
continue to move/develop south of the I-10 corridor through early
this evening. This activity is associated with a few vort maxes
embedded in the 500mb northeast flow, sfc convergence (sea/bay
breeze) and daytime heating. Shower and thunderstorm activity should
gradually taper off through sunset.

By Friday, 500mb heights should weaken a bit as the upper-level
ridge shifts westward and an inverted upper-level trough moves over
the southwestern Gulf/northeast MX. This pattern will once again
bring small shortwaves/forcing across the region. The BL remains
relatively dry at mid to upper levels, mainly due to the influence
of the Saharan dust over the region. However, some areas can still
reach PWs in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range in the afternoon (per latest
NAM). Therefore, isolated to scattered showers with a few
thunderstorms are expected once again. The best chances will be
early in the morning over the coastal waters and islands and in the
afternoon for areas generally south of I-10.

Expect warm and humid nights with overnight lows mainly in the upper
70s.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Going into Saturday, the midlevel high will be centered over the
Four Corners region. It`ll be far enough away (for now) to allow for
at least another day of our typical isolated to widely scattered
showers/storms moving inland along the sea breeze in the afternoon
hours. Things begin to change as we head into next week as model
consistency still points toward this midlevel high pushing further
south as it expands eastward. This is a fairly strong high as well
with a 500mb height around 599-600 dam at its center. 500mb heights
around our area will remain mainly in the 594-596 dam range, but as
we get increasing subsidence due to the high building in further
south, we`ll see increasing 700mb/850mb temperatures. This will lead
to a warming trend going into next week with widespread high
temperatures in the triple digits. To pair with that, persistent
onshore flow will steadily increase moisture/humidity across
Southeast TX as well with PW values reaching 1.7"-2.1" by Tuesday.

Heat + Humidity = Elevated Heat Index values. As of right now,
Saturday is expected to remain below the advisory threshold with
heat index values around 102-106°F. This increases to 104°F-108°F by
Sunday, and Monday onward we`ll see heat index values ranging from
108°F-113°F. So...Heat Advisories will be possible as early as
Sunday, and essentially a lock beginning Monday and extending
through next week. We`ve had two prolonged streaks of heat alerts
already this year (one at 19 days in June and one at 16 days in
July), so we`ll see how long this heat alert streak will go for.
There`s fairly good consensus on the midlevel high remaining
overhead into NEXT weekend and the latest temperature outlook from
CPC for early August doesn`t look too promising with high
probabilities of above normal temperatures, so there`s a decent
chance this streak could last at least a week.

Now what about rain chances next week? Well...I`ve continued the
trend of hotter and drier conditions expected due to the increased
subsidence from the midlevel high being overhead. That being said
there will be enough moisture around after Tuesday for maybe
something isolated to develop, BUT it`ll have to fight through a
good amount of subsidence to drop some rain. It won`t be impossible,
but if it does happen then it likely wouldn`t last long. So...hotter
and drier conditions expected and today`s drought monitor revealed
that all of Southeast TX is now experiencing drought conditions.
Coastal areas have it the worst currently with moderate to severe
drought, and areas north of I-10 are mainly abnormally dry (for
now). I mention that because this period of hot and dry conditions
certainly won`t improve things drought wise. So, don`t be
surprised to see darker colors becoming more widespread on
upcoming drought monitor maps if this trend continues. Another
climate nugget (for the City of Houston), July 2023 is still
0.2°F shy of July 2022 which is the warmest July on record so far
(88.0°F average). With high temperatures reaching near or just
above 100°F at the tail-end of the month, we could have a close
finish for the top spot!

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Scattered mid clouds and light to moderate south to southeast
winds can be expected through this evening. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will likely continue, particularly
at/near LBX, SGR, HOU and GLS through mid/late afternoon. A few
showers will be possible a bit further north of these terminals.
Gusty winds up to 20 knots and reduced visibility are possible
with any strong storms. Light and variable winds and mostly clear
skies can be expected tonight. Reduced visibility due to fog is
once again expected near/at LBX towards daybreak. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through most of the period.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Relatively benign marine conditions are expected to continue through
the weekend and into next week with light to occasionally moderate
onshore winds (closer to moderate during the overnight hours) and 1-
3 foot seas prevailing. Showers and isolated storms will be possible
in the bays and Gulf waters during the morning and early afternoon
hours, but rain chances have been trending down next week as an
upper level high pressure builds into the region bringing more heat.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 97 77 99 / 0 20 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 90 82 90 / 20 30 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Batiste

[jasons2k]

It takes a lot of hubris to think we can accurately predict the weather. It takes even more to think we somehow have any control of it. If there is any climate change happening, that giant ball of fire in the sky and the molten core of the earth are going to have all the say in what happens, not us.

It’s not “hubris” - it’s basic science. All one has to do it take a flight over South Louisiana. Then try arguing man can’t change the environment in substantial ways. We absolutely can and the evidence is all around us. This current rate of warming is completely unprecedented by orders of magnitude and you simply cannot account for all of that as being additional ‘solar radiation’ in the last 150 years that wasn’t there before. That hasn’t substantially changed. What has changed dramatically is the composition of the atmosphere.

I’m not saying “green” energy is a silver bullet and I, for one, won’t deny the problems and horrible side effects from so-called green projects. But to deny that man can’t change the environment or the atmosphere resulting in climate effects…disagree on that 100% as the mountain of science proves otherwise.

Edit:

My additional $.02:

it’s a shame ‘global warming’ has become politicized. You have a whole group of the population completely unwilling to listen to sound science or touch it with a 10 foot pole simply because the other party wants to address the problem - or at least acknowledge we have one.

It should be a scientific issue based purely on what the scientific evidence is telling us.

These talking heads on TV blasting global warming as a conspiracy to destroy our rights couldn’t even pass a 6th grade science quiz on the water cycle - why the hell would anyone believe anything they have to say about climate change?! SMH.

[Cpv17]

This is why I don’t like bringing this topic up.

[Stratton20]

Alrighty back to the july thread, getting absolutely teased by a small pop up cell, thunder but no rain smh

[don]

I gotcha. I never knew TWC was like that.. interesting.

TWC is full blown agenda.
It’s almost unwatchable. With the whole midday “pattrn” show.

I wish I could have another true “Weather Channel.”

I used to love it when I was a kid growing up. TWC is one of the reasons why I started becoming a weather enthusiast. Used to be one of my favorite channels. But that was 20 years ago lol my favorite part was the “Weekly Planner”.

I was obsessed with the Weather Channel as a kid.I would literally watch it for hours.Oh how the mighty have fallen...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It takes a lot of hubris to think we can accurately predict the weather. It takes even more to think we somehow have any control of it. If there is any climate change happening, that giant ball of fire in the sky and the molten core of the earth are going to have all the say in what happens, not us.

It’s not “hubris” - it’s basic science. All one has to do it take a flight over South Louisiana. Then try arguing man can’t change the environment in substantial ways. We absolutely can and the evidence is all around us. This current rate of warming is completely unprecedented by orders of magnitude and you simply cannot account for all of that as being additional ‘solar radiation’ in the last 150 years that wasn’t there before. That hasn’t substantially changed. What has changed dramatically is the composition of the atmosphere.

I’m not saying “green” energy is a silver bullet and I, for one, won’t deny the problems and horrible side effects from so-called green projects. But to deny that man can’t change the environment or the atmosphere resulting in climate effects…disagree on that 100% as the mountain of science proves otherwise.

Edit:

My additional $.02:

it’s a shame ‘global warming’ has become politicized. You have a whole group of the population completely unwilling to listen to sound science or touch it with a 10 foot pole simply because the other party wants to address the problem - or at least acknowledge we have one.

It should be a scientific issue based purely on what the scientific evidence is telling us.

These talking heads on TV blasting global warming as a conspiracy to destroy our rights couldn’t even pass a 6th grade science quiz on the water cycle - why the hell would anyone believe anything they have to say about climate change?! SMH.

I don’t have any issues with you personally, and this post won’t change that, but this is exactly what I’m talking about. Speaking in absolutes, when many don’t understand that science isn’t absolute…. is ideology (or ideological lenses) blinding logic.

I disagree that man is driving climate change at a massive clip and this is how I’ve built my career… consulting on feasibility studies and engineering projects that affects municipalities, utilities and water sheds. Much of that is listening to actual climate scientists, not idiot shock jocks like Mann and Joe B.

The problem people have is they digest so much information today, and much of it has an ideological slant. Psyop warfare on the citizenry is a very real thing in 2023 and this is just another example of that.

For the record, I am neither right or left. I am common sense and place logic over emotion. The left was always an emotional drag on society, particularly the economy, with their charlatans, but now the right is every bit as populist and electing clowns.

This conversation is best had over bourbon and steak

[cperk]

It takes a lot of hubris to think we can accurately predict the weather. It takes even more to think we somehow have any control of it. If there is any climate change happening, that giant ball of fire in the sky and the molten core of the earth are going to have all the say in what happens, not us.

It’s not “hubris” - it’s basic science. All one has to do it take a flight over South Louisiana. Then try arguing man can’t change the environment in substantial ways. We absolutely can and the evidence is all around us. This current rate of warming is completely unprecedented by orders of magnitude and you simply cannot account for all of that as being additional ‘solar radiation’ in the last 150 years that wasn’t there before. That hasn’t substantially changed. What has changed dramatically is the composition of the atmosphere.

I’m not saying “green” energy is a silver bullet and I, for one, won’t deny the problems and horrible side effects from so-called green projects. But to deny that man can’t change the environment or the atmosphere resulting in climate effects…disagree on that 100% as the mountain of science proves otherwise.

Edit:

My additional $.02:

it’s a shame ‘global warming’ has become politicized. You have a whole group of the population completely unwilling to listen to sound science or touch it with a 10 foot pole simply because the other party wants to address the problem - or at least acknowledge we have one.

It should be a scientific issue based purely on what the scientific evidence is telling us.

These talking heads on TV blasting global warming as a conspiracy to destroy our rights couldn’t even pass a 6th grade science quiz on the water cycle - why the hell would anyone believe anything they have to say about climate change?! SMH.

Well said Jason i get why climate change is such a lighting rod among politicians what i don't get is why it's an issue with a segment of the general public.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It takes a lot of hubris to think we can accurately predict the weather. It takes even more to think we somehow have any control of it. If there is any climate change happening, that giant ball of fire in the sky and the molten core of the earth are going to have all the say in what happens, not us.

It’s not “hubris” - it’s basic science. All one has to do it take a flight over South Louisiana. Then try arguing man can’t change the environment in substantial ways. We absolutely can and the evidence is all around us. This current rate of warming is completely unprecedented by orders of magnitude and you simply cannot account for all of that as being additional ‘solar radiation’ in the last 150 years that wasn’t there before. That hasn’t substantially changed. What has changed dramatically is the composition of the atmosphere.

I’m not saying “green” energy is a silver bullet and I, for one, won’t deny the problems and horrible side effects from so-called green projects. But to deny that man can’t change the environment or the atmosphere resulting in climate effects…disagree on that 100% as the mountain of science proves otherwise.

Edit:

My additional $.02:

it’s a shame ‘global warming’ has become politicized. You have a whole group of the population completely unwilling to listen to sound science or touch it with a 10 foot pole simply because the other party wants to address the problem - or at least acknowledge we have one.

It should be a scientific issue based purely on what the scientific evidence is telling us.

These talking heads on TV blasting global warming as a conspiracy to destroy our rights couldn’t even pass a 6th grade science quiz on the water cycle - why the hell would anyone believe anything they have to say about climate change?! SMH.

Well said Jason i get why climate change is such a lighting rod among politicians what i don't get is why it's an issue with a segment of the general public.

Depends on the context of the argument. Amongst the general public, if you’re debating a centrally planned economy around climate change, it absolutely will be a lightning rod.

As I said before, climate change is real and has been long before us and will be long after us. The media and charlatans in DC are tapping into the emotional sides of their tribes to create more division.

[DoctorMu]

Climate change/CO2 is important in our context because it's just another factor that influences the weather, tropical weather, and changes in the weather, just like ENSO, volcanos, MJO, AMOC, etc.

The last strong counterargument to a ∆CO2-induced greenhouse effect was made by Roy Spencer at UAH. They measured an increased instead of reduced vertical temperature gradient in the troposphere. That data caught my eye, since an increased temperature gradient does not reflect a green house effect. Unfortunately, it turned out that the data was flawed and had to be corrected because Dr. Spencer did not take into account the decaying orbit of the satellite making the measurements. Once corrected, then greenhouse effect from CO2 was confirmed.

There's a ton of biological questions that are uncertain (some of which I study), but between the subatomic and galactic levels Newton's Laws of Motion are pretty robust. The Laws of Thermodynamics are rock solid.

The remainder of the counter arguments/ against some influence of CC are narratives from the O&G industry (my wife's Dad and brother were in O&G - Exxon, drilling) that pay off politicians. The Left tends to have hysterical fits (to rains $$), though. It's highly, highly unlikely that CC will "destroy" the Earth or humans, but starvation, wars, and inundated coastal cities are a real risk. Just ask the Pentagon - which has CC high on their risk factors for future conflicts Canals and rising sea levels have indeed heavily damaged Louisiana's coastal oases. The speed of the climate change and rising sea levels are a real concern.

It's happening. The effects of CC vary and predictions are difficult. An added contribution of water vapor has not been as robust as predicted, but the albedo effect (loss) has been worse. Glacier melting has been worse than expected. The speed of the rise in CO2 is unprecedented, so our predictions of the future will be off in both directions.

The greatest effects we will see here are more extreme weather(floods droughts). Texas has always had them just more are expected. Stronger, but fewer hurricanes are likely.

My argument is to innovate our way out of this. Industry is making strides but it would require a strong, sane POTUS and I don't see one in our immediate future. We've had waves of technological revolutions. Clean energy is just another one. It won't be easy, but then no tech. revolution is.

So...Cheer up. The future won't be utopia. It won't be dystopia. It will be both. Because the answer always is both.

Disclosure: I used to be a Republican, but am now a political ideological atheist and pragmatist. In the end, the problem solving should drive public policy.

[jasons2k]

Disclosure: I used to be a Republican, but am now a political ideological atheist and pragmatist. In the end, the problem solving should drive public policy.

Same for me. I don’t need to go into details but in the last 4-6 years the grand old party has jumped the shark. Reason and critical thinking has vacated the premises.

I heard an interesting speech by Andrew Yang at a conference in June. He is a fascinating guy. I don’t endorse a lot of his ideas but the main point of his presentation is that neither party works for us. We are a uniparty system behind closed doors. Neither party or “side” wants to actually solve problems. They would rather perpetuate problems to stoke emotions for one purpose: to raise campaign funds and get re-elected. It’s the only system in the world where the approval ratings are in the teens but the Congressional re-election rate is 96%

Why? They stoke anger, cater to their base on camera to raise money to get re-elected. That’s all they care about. They are completely different people on camera versus how they wheel and deal with their colleagues in private.

It also helps that as you get older and wiser and more confident in yourself, you realize that you disagree with about half the platform on both sides. Anyone who supports one party 100% on every single issue has been brainwashed and should read more. Be pragmatic. Think. Most of the crap on TV and talk radio is pure propaganda crap to get you emotionally invested, so that you keep coming back for more. Don’t fall for it. Be wiser. Read peer-reviewed articles instead of some yahoo online pushing supplements or Armageddon supplies for your bunker in the hills.

[jasons2k]

Also FWIW I don’t trust any “opinions” on climate change coming from anyone in the Oil and Gas industry. That may not be a popular opinion in Houston, but you know the old saying “follow the money”

I think I would rather trust a bunch of underpaid scientists doing their life’s passion versus overpaid spokespeople on a PR mission to convince the public to keep buying their products.

[Rip76]

Just depressing
- Lindner

Heat and Increasing Drought Conditions

Mid and upper level high pressure continues to sit over or near the area resulting in hot and mostly dry conditions.

Our ever present dome of high pressure that has been meandering back and forth between the SW US and southern plains much of this summer continues to dominant the synoptic scale pattern over Texas. End result is highs in the upper 90’s and low 100’s and only isolated rain chances mainly south of I-10 along the seabreeze during the afternoon hours. Upper level low pressure system moving into MX well south of the southern Texas coast is helping to break down and bump the ridge of high pressure a bit northward and this when combined with slightly deeper moisture may help to enhance rain chances near the coast today and Saturday. Still with dry mid level air…only going with 20% for the coastal and first inland tier counties. North and west of those areas where the ridge influence remains strong…10% is likely generous. Good news with the drier air in the mid levels the afternoon dewpoints are mixing out over the region into the upper 60’s and this is keeping heat index values in the 102-106 range and below advisory levels.

Upper ridge will continue to remain in place over the area into much of next week with status quo forecasts. Coastal areas will sit near the edge of the deep layer subsidence and will stand at least an isolated chance of a storm along the seabreeze daily.

Drought:
After being completely drought free in June, high heat levels and lack of widespread rainfall has resulted in drought developing across the region. All of the coastal counties have moved into moderate drought conditions with Chambers and southern Liberty now into Severe drought. Elsewhere conditions are “abnormally dry” but the ongoing trend is for categorical degradation in the drought outlook nearly each week. With the ongoing dryness, vegetation health is starting to suffer and fine fuels have dried to the point where fire activity is increasing. TFS along with local FD’s have reported an increase in grass fires in the last few weeks. KBDI values continue to increase over the entire region…especially in the areas north of I-10. Average values of 700-800 area now in place for Madison and Houston Counties on the scale of 0 to 800 with 0 having the soil saturated and 800 void of moisture to a depth of 8 inches. Values over 600 tend to support increased wildfire activity. While the vegetation side of things is supportive of wildfire growth, overall the atmospheric conditions are generally not supportive with light winds (minus behind the afternoon seabreeze) and good RH recovery in the evening and overnight hours. Main concern times is between roughly noon and 600-800pm away from the coast when RH values dip and before the seabreeze arrives.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Good posts on the political spectrum jason and Mu. I haven’t voted for a major party in a Federal election since 2000. I’ll never vote for a modern D as I see them as borderline anti American, but I’m finding it increasingly harder to vote for Rs at the state level. Our freshman rep in the house is great but he’s new blood and not tainted …. Yet.

I will disagree on the follow the money quip. It goes both ways, not just one. A lot of these “underpaid” scientists are not underpaid. I know, we pay them, and we hire both the climate alarmists and the more pragmatic ones. And if you really want to follow the money, follow what our global adversaries are doing money wise to get us to go full renewables (hint: they aren’t) and destroy our grid and economy.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

And if we were a serious society, we wouldn’t be discussing solar/wind vs fossil fuels. We would be full nuclear with supplemental Nat gas.

[user:null]

Just depressing
- Lindner

Sometimes, I do think the models overextend patterns/have biases. The +PDO/El Nino base states are supposedly already coming in based on what the S2K guys state: if that really is true, the the depictions of stuck ridging over Texas cannot be accurate.

[jasons2k]

And if we were a serious society, we wouldn’t be discussing solar/wind vs fossil fuels. We would be full nuclear with supplemental Nat gas.

This is spot on. Windmills and solar farms are an environmental catastrophe that’s not publicized nearly enough (gee - wonder why).

I am cautiously optimistic about fusion and some of the recent developments in quantum physics.

While we’re at it, can we create a rain machine too?

[DoctorMu]

Disclosure: I used to be a Republican, but am now a political ideological atheist and pragmatist. In the end, the problem solving should drive public policy.

Same for me. I don’t need to go into details but in the last 4-6 years the grand old party has jumped the shark. Reason and critical thinking has vacated the premises.

I heard an interesting speech by Andrew Yang at a conference in June. He is a fascinating guy. I don’t endorse a lot of his ideas but the main point of his presentation is that neither party works for us. We are a uniparty system behind closed doors. Neither party or “side” wants to actually solve problems. They would rather perpetuate problems to stoke emotions for one purpose: to raise campaign funds and get re-elected. It’s the only system in the world where the approval ratings are in the teens but the Congressional re-election rate is 96%

Why? They stoke anger, cater to their base on camera to raise money to get re-elected. That’s all they care about. They are completely different people on camera versus how they wheel and deal with their colleagues in private.

It also helps that as you get older and wiser and more confident in yourself, you realize that you disagree with about half the platform on both sides. Anyone who supports one party 100% on every single issue has been brainwashed and should read more. Be pragmatic. Think. Most of the crap on TV and talk radio is pure propaganda crap to get you emotionally invested, so that you keep coming back for more. Don’t fall for it. Be wiser. Read peer-reviewed articles instead of some yahoo online pushing supplements or Armageddon supplies for your bunker in the hills.

Hammer, meet nail. This is exactly it. Politics is today a machine for raising $$, not solving problems and ergo the fear of making themselves "obsolete." It's kabuki theater. I heard there are a couple of countries in Europe that pay their pols by the economic and other markers of national performance. Actual accountability.


Neither party or “side” wants to actually solve problems. They would rather perpetuate problems to stoke emotions for one purpose: to raise campaign funds and get re-elected. It’s the only system in the world where the approval ratings are in the teens but the Congressional re-election rate is 96%

Back to the weather. We remain on the NE edge of the ridge with the greatest weakness about August 8. 20-40% chance or rain in the long-term forecast around that time.

Saharan dust has squashed recent rain chances north of Houston as the sea breeze fizzled out around Hempstead.

We're probably headed to Minnesota about August 10th until football and the fall semester begin. 20°F cooler per the long range forecast. I can go for that!



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1207 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

An inverted upper level trough will move over the SW Gulf into
Northern Mexico, and will nudge the ridge that dominated the
synoptic pattern further west. This will allow 500mb heights to
lower, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures. Additionally,
shortwaves will move across the region during the short-term period;
however, the Saharan Dust plume will continue to limit cloud
development as the mid-upper levels remain fairly dry. Though,
Southeast TX will generally remain on the drier side today and
tomorrow, pockets of higher PWAT values (1.5-1.8") coupled with the
shortwaves and the afternoon sea/bay breeze will lead to isolated
showers and thunderstorms. Highest chances, again, remain generally
over the Gulf waters and the islands in the morning and south of I-
10 during the afternoon hours.

Temperatures during the day will be in the upper 80s to near 100.
Nighttime will feature warm and humid conditions, with temperatures
in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Broad mid/upper ridging situated over the Southern Plains will help
to keep hot and humid conditions in place over SE TX during the be-
ginning of the week. And there may not be much change with the over
all forecast heading into the week as this system settles in/around
the ArKLATX region through much of next week. So, per this prevail-
ing subsident pattern, widespread highs in/near triple digits are a
decent bet. Additionally, when paired with slowly increasing moist-
ure levels, this should add up to increasing elevated heat indicies
through this package. Based on these progs, Heat Advisories will be
possible as early as Sun, but most likely starting on Mon.

As for rain chances, will keep the best POPs for the coastal waters
and counties around mid week as elevated PWs (~2") move in from the
east. Long-range models are hinting that the strong ridge aloft may
start weakening by the end of the week, but given the trends so far
this summer, not exactly counting on it at this time. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Isolated showers with a few storms will continue for terminals
from IAH coastward through late this afternoon. South to southeast
winds around 10 to 15 knots will be possible through sunset. Then,
light and variable winds can be expected through mid Saturday
morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the
period.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Will keep with the generally quiet forecast through the weekend and
into next week as light to occasionally moderate onshore winds pre-
vail. Seas will remain in the 1-3 ft range. Showers/isolated storms
will be possible in the bays and Gulf waters during the morning and
early afternoon hours but rain chances should trending down heading
into next week as an high pressure builds into the area. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 77 99 79 / 20 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 82 90 81 / 20 20 20 0

&&