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2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:13 pm
by Ptarmigan
ACE as of September 20, 2010 2100z.
ATL-124.405
EPAC-48.64
WPAC-51.0450
We are way head of the East and West Pacific COMBINED. West Pacific is the most active basin and it is not much different from East Pacific. We are more than twice ahead of West Pacific.
Re: 2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:16 pm
by srainhoutx
Ptarmigan wrote:ACE as of September 20, 2010 2100z.
ATL-124.405
EPAC-48.64
WPAC-51.0450
We are way head of the East and West Pacific COMBINED. West Pacific is the most active basin and it is not much different from East Pacific. We are more than twice ahead of West Pacific.
To be expected in a La Nina year. The NALT is the favored Basin.
Re: 2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:28 pm
by Ptarmigan
srainhoutx wrote:
To be expected in a La Nina year. The NALT is the favored Basin.
Exactly. Also, in a La Nina season, typhoons form closer to land, which means less likely to be intense and have higher ACE.
Re: 2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:46 pm
by Ptarmigan
ACE as of September 21, 2010 0300z.
ATL-124.8275
Re: 2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
Posted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 9:12 pm
by Ptarmigan
ACE as of September 21, 2010 2100z.
ATL-126.115
Re: 2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
Posted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 9:14 pm
by srainhoutx
Models are unsure with Lisa and a future Matthew could add to those totals. 200 doesn't sound like an unobtainable point anymore, does it?
Re: 2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
Posted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 10:42 pm
by Ptarmigan
srainhoutx wrote:Models are unsure with Lisa and a future Matthew could add to those totals. 200 doesn't sound like an unobtainable point anymore, does it?
I think we could be in the top 10 most active season, especially with ACE. I would not be surprised if we are challenging 1995 and 1933 in terms of numbers and ACE like 2004 and 1926, which had high ACE, but lower number of storms.
Re: 2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
Posted: Wed Sep 22, 2010 7:53 pm
by Ptarmigan
ACE as of September 22, 2010 2100z.
ATL-126.595
Re: 2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
Posted: Thu Sep 23, 2010 7:23 pm
by Ptarmigan
ACE as of September 23, 2010 2100z.
ATL-127.1225
WPAC-51.865
Re: 2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
Posted: Wed Oct 13, 2010 9:24 pm
by Ptarmigan
ACE as of October 13, 2010 1500z.
ATL-140.2975
We are challenging 2008 ACE of 144. I think we could be hyperactive by the time this season is over.
Re: 2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2010 4:46 pm
by Ptarmigan
ACE as of October 16, 2010.
ATL-141.95.25
EPAC-48.64
WPAC-65.925
Colin Best Track. Lowers ACE.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL042010_Colin.pdf
Re: 2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2010 8:39 pm
by Ptarmigan
ACE as of October 29, 2010 0300z.
ATL-146.515
EPAC-48.64
WPAC-106.6175
West Pacific has really caught up thanks to Megi. I notice during La Nina, that West Pacific is more active towards the later part of the season. The Atlantic ACE exceeds that of 2008. With 91L and 92L becoming Shary and Tomas, the ACE will likely go into hyperactive threshold. I think we could see Greek letters before the season ends. We just have Virginie and Walter left once Shary and Tomas are named.
Re: 2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 9:44 pm
by Ptarmigan
ACE as of November 3, 2010 2100z.
ATL-154.08
EPAC-48.64
WPAC-115.8975
The Atlantic is officially hyperactive. Hyperactive has an ACE of 153.
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We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following seasonal (June-November) ranges of activity during 2010. These ranges are consistent with NOAA’s May outlook, and reiterate a high likelihood of a very active season (i.e. hyperactive, defined by ACE > 175% of median), perhaps one of the more active on record.
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The 1951-2000 base period is used in the above classifications, where the mean value of the ACE index is (93.2 x 104 kt2), and the median value is (87.5 x 104 kt2).
By Median
87.5 * 1.75 = 153.125
By Mean
93.2 * 1.75 = 163.1
NOAA goes by median, so we are at hyperactive.
Re: 2010 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2010 7:23 pm
by Ptarmigan
ACE as of November 8, 2010.
ATL-159.4725
EPAC-48.64
WPAC-115.8975
NIND-31.7850
Northern Hemisphere ACE To Date-355.795