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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2010 1:39 pm
by txsnowmaker
Bring on cooler weather. Hopefully our weather pattern will follow history rather than current model forecasts and we will get our first cold front in time to drive tropical activity away from our area.
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2010 2:27 pm
by srainhoutx
Well the Euro has a very large storm in the Gulf @ hour 240...low resolution from the ECMWF site...
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2010 2:30 pm
by Met Tech
sambucol wrote: Ok. I'm curious if Texas is possibly at target.
Looks like it's doing the same as GFS; in this last frame at 180 hours (27/00Z) it just starts headed WNW as if it's going to make a northwest/north turn afterward. Central pressure 969 mb, by the way--a bit hard to read on that graphic.
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2010 2:31 pm
by srainhoutx
Here are the resolutions of the Euro from Allan Huffman's site at 850mb and 500mb...
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2010 2:37 pm
by srainhoutx
Interesting that the KWRF is also suggesting a powerful system. Worth watching and thanks Met Tech for those graphics. Looks like an interesting week as the NHC has now mentioned PGI46L or the general location in the latest Tropical Weather Discussion as a surface trough...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 13N48W
4N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 48W-54W.
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2010 3:15 pm
by cisa
any guesses as to how Upper TX coast figures into this? I know it's early.
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2010 3:17 pm
by sambucol
I think we aren't out of the woods on the upper TX coast. But I could be wrong.
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2010 3:20 pm
by srainhoutx
Still very early and we know things change quickly. To use a phrase that has been tossed around before, Tampico to Bermuda would be in the 'cone' today IMO.
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2010 3:21 pm
by cisa
Yeah, I'm kinda sensing that myself. Well, tis the season.
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2010 3:23 pm
by cisa
Thanks guys!
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2010 4:18 pm
by wxman57
For now, we don't know where anything is going until we know if something develops and when and where it develops. I do think that it's becoming somewhat evident that the Caribbean and Gulf will become active over the coming week. If I was a betting meteorologist, I'd put some money down on western Florida (peninsula or panhandle) for now. Secondarily, SE LA to MS/AL.
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2010 4:31 pm
by Ptarmigan
From what I have noticed, a good number of computer models are predicting a strong hurricane in the next 2 weeks. Like I said before, the Caribbean and Gulf is where tropical activity will likely happen. If it had a name, it would either be Matthew, Nicole, or Otto. Invest 94L is getting better organized, which would make it Lisa.
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2010 7:09 pm
by Andrew
wxman57 wrote:For now, we don't know where anything is going until we know if something develops and when and where it develops. I do think that it's becoming somewhat evident that the Caribbean and Gulf will become active over the coming week. If I was a betting meteorologist, I'd put some money down on western Florida (peninsula or panhandle) for now. Secondarily, SE LA to MS/AL.
Why would you say more east central gulf coast too anywhere else?
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2010 10:06 pm
by wxman57
Andrew wrote:wxman57 wrote:For now, we don't know where anything is going until we know if something develops and when and where it develops. I do think that it's becoming somewhat evident that the Caribbean and Gulf will become active over the coming week. If I was a betting meteorologist, I'd put some money down on western Florida (peninsula or panhandle) for now. Secondarily, SE LA to MS/AL.
Why would you say more east central gulf coast too anywhere else?
Good chance of a ridge over Texas and trof down the East U.S. states by then.
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2010 10:23 pm
by Andrew
wxman57 wrote:Andrew wrote:wxman57 wrote:For now, we don't know where anything is going until we know if something develops and when and where it develops. I do think that it's becoming somewhat evident that the Caribbean and Gulf will become active over the coming week. If I was a betting meteorologist, I'd put some money down on western Florida (peninsula or panhandle) for now. Secondarily, SE LA to MS/AL.
Why would you say more east central gulf coast too anywhere else?
Good chance of a ridge over Texas and trof down the East U.S. states by then.
Alright thank you. I hope you're right.
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 5:28 am
by ticka1
I honestly think as we get closer and closer to October we will be in the clear. Some of these models did have HGX as the bulleyes several runs last week but that's all changed.
But then again - until we get a system that actually develops.....how do we know where its ultimately going.
I mean the models have been seeing this system for over 7 days and its always 10+ days out. Tells me develop isn't going to be rapid.
As always...keep an eye to the sky and stay prepared.
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:28 am
by srainhoutx
The models continue to develop a storm in the NW Caribbean later this week. The 00Z Euro has come in stronger with a Gulf storm as well...
09202010 00Z EC Hour 192 Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_192.gif
09202010 00Z EC Hour 216 Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_216.gif
09202010 00Z EC Hour 240 Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_240.gif
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:41 am
by srainhoutx
PGI46L is looking a bit better convection wise this morning...
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:32 am
by srainhoutx
Here is the PREDICT Team morning report on PGI46L...
PREDICT pouch synopsis
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date (UTC): 2010/09/20 12:35
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/09/20 12:50
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pouch Name: PGI46L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 13N 56W
Notes:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ECMWF: Phase Speed: Determination: Level tracked:
GFS: Phase Speed: -7.2 Determination: v average Level tracked: 850 hPa
Track: 120h
Phase speed determined after initial "test" track was also -7.2
m/s.
GFS has the most consistent pouch and track.
UKMET: Phase Speed: -7.2 Determination: v850 only Level tracked: 850 hPa
Track: 96h, but that's only because the data stopped at 96
hours. (Note that the track plotted at the top of the time
series only goes to 84 hours, but the track continues to 96
hours in the 6-panel comoving vs. earth-relative comparisons.
The missing data played havoc with our code!)
A pouch is discernible throughout the 96 hours. The first two
days are erratic in terms of speed, but the track becomes more
stable after 48 hours. (After watching closely this year, this
isn't the only storm or model that has troubles creating a
smooth track near the islands. This erratic east-west jumping
as a pouch tries to cross the islands in the forecast fields
seems common ... but I realize that this is a small sample!)
NOGAPS: Phase Speed: -7.7 Determination: Moisture & v average Level tracked: 850 hPa
Track: 120h, but uncertain at 24, 60, and 84 hours.
Used RH and v850 to determine Cp.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other potential systems:
Convection south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico appears to not
have a wave associated with it.
Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?
Posted: Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:40 am
by srainhoutx
The 12Z GFS suggests a very complex situation that may involve PGI46L and a low that starts from a monsoonal trough near South/Central America...hour 204...