Remnants of Matthew Inland Over Southern Mexico

[Andrew]

If we get the cold front through here, will that mean we are not likely for any tropical development to head our way?

More or less yes. If it isn't too late or early it should protect us.

[sambucol]

If we get the cold front through here, will that mean we are not likely for any tropical development to head our way?

More or less yes. If it isn't too late or early it should protect us.

Reminds me of Ike when the cold front was supposed to keep it away from us. But we know the rest of that story.

[srainhoutx]

Here is the problem with the EC and GFS. A totally different Upper Air Patter is depicted by each...

[srainhoutx]

Sunset on PGI46L...

[biggerbyte]

Wow! That far out and it is all pure speculation. Does lend the possibility to the conversation. First we have to get a system to form at all. Next, what will the conditions be at the time it does. Too many possible variables at this point to make a west gulf, or north/ne gulf call. I'd be careful to put all my apples in either basket for a few more days.

Also, it looks like we could be active until mid October this year.

Keep a wise eye to the sky, newbies. The fun may begin in just a few days.

[Andrew]

Here is the problem with the EC and GFS. A totally different Upper Air Patter is depicted by each...

Yea the Euro shows a dominating ridge while the gfs shows an early fall pattern.

Where do you get these awesome pictures srain?

[srainhoutx]

Here is the problem with the EC and GFS. A totally different Upper Air Patter is depicted by each...

Yea the Euro shows a dominating ridge while the gfs shows an early fall pattern.

Where do you get these awesome pictures srain?

Oh, I had help through the years...

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder why PGI46L is not tagged as an Invest? Here is a 324 Hour GFS model and it has a monster hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Looks larger than Gilbert! If named, it would be Matthew.

[srainhoutx]

Microwave pass caught some of 46...

[biggerbyte]

We may get a cool front through here over a Sunday/Monday timeframe. That would be out of the area long before a system in the Gulf gets cranking. We will need another front, or a strong trough digging down just at the right time to be completely safe. Maybe... Maybe not. That graphic looks scary.

[Ptarmigan]

We may get a cool front through here over a Sunday/Monday timeframe. That would be out of the area long before a system in the Gulf gets cranking. We will need another front, or a strong trough digging down just at the right time to be completely safe. Maybe... Maybe not. That graphic looks scary.

Sometimes, a tropical cyclone can get a cool front to pass, like Ike did in 2008. Also, if a front passed by and stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure system may form and become a hurricane, like Alicia in 1983.

[Andrew]

GFS 42h:

[Andrew]

108h:

[Andrew]

No way this run verifies. I have no clue what is up with the GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[djjordan]

NHC has put a Code Yellow up for the islands in the Carribean regarding the system we all are tracking. Good Morning Forum ......


. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

00Z Euro..and GGEM (Canadian)...

09212010 00Z Euro 240 hours00zeurotropical500mbSLP240.gif

09212010 00Z GGEM 240 00zggem500mbHGHTPMSLtropical240.gif

[srainhoutx]

00Z EC and GFS have some agreement regarding the Upper Air Pattern...

[srainhoutx]

Up to 20%...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

Beginning to get a curved look. 95L may not be too far off in the distance...

[srainhoutx]

HWRF 06Z for 96E caught what may be our NW Caribbean system...