Remnants of Matthew Inland Over Southern Mexico

[Andrew]

This is the scenario that I have been talking about for days. Many thought I was crazy or wishcasting. I was not sure it would unfold, but I knew it was possible. Still, it may not entirely. A lot is still to be watched. The front and trough are still in question, but they are increasingly looking to not be players in this situation.

iWatch continues...

Well they will be players no doubt it is just how much of a player they are. It still as of now looks like it will make the NE turn if it survives but each run shows a weaker and faster trough. If this continues we won't see a front here.

[Ptarmigan]

I notice when before storms undergo rapid intensification, they tend to get more circular, which Matthew is looking on satellite and often happens at night.

[Andrew]

Alright so here is a rundown of the gfs:

Hour 72:



Matthew dissipates into CA while the GFS picks up on a system from the pacific and sends it west.


Also trough is slightly weaker but a lot faster:

00z:




18z:

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 241141
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW HEADING TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 80.7W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LIMON HONDURAS WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER

WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE COAST OF
GUATEMALA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST. MATTHEW
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS LATER TODAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MATTHEW COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MOVES
CLOSE TO CENTRAL AMERICA LATE TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
STRONG SQUALLS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER. THE NOAA BUOY 42057 LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF MATTHEW RECENTLY REPORTED GUSTS TO
43 MPH...69 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MATTHEW MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
TOTALS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 12:51Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 15L in 2010
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 12:24:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°13'N 81°17'W (14.2167N 81.2833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 352 miles (566 km) to the S (179°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,435m (4,708ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 120 nautical miles (138 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 157° at 41kts (From the SSE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,534m (5,033ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration and Wind
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 12:09:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NE (46°) from the flight level center

[srainhoutx]

The center of Matthew is displaced a bit NE of deep convection...

[srainhoutx]

12Z Tracks...

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 14:39Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 15L in 2010
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 14:10:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°20'N 82°01'W (14.3333N 82.0167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 346 miles (557 km) to the S (187°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,429m (4,688ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 225° at 37kts (From the SW at ~ 42.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,536m (5,039ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northwest quadrant at 14:30:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the WNW (297°) from the flight level center

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 241457
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING MATTHEW THIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME ANY STRONGER. EASTERLY SHEAR HAS
KEPT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A ROUND BLOB
OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE AND
MICROWAVE DATA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BUT DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SO
FAR SUGGEST THAT THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS. MATTHEW ONLY HAS
12 HOURS OR LESS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL...AND GIVEN THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO
SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECAST MATTHEW TO BECOME
A HURRICANE.

THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KNOTS.
MATTHEW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BEYOND TWO
DAYS...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER CONTINUES WESTWARD AND DISSIPATES...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND BECOMES PART OF A NEARLY STATIONARY BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SUCH A WEATHER PATTERN
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE DANGEROUS TORRENTIAL RAINS IN CENTRAL AMERICA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 14.4N 82.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 14.6N 84.2W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1200Z 15.4N 86.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0000Z 16.0N 89.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1200Z 17.0N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/1200Z 18.0N 90.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/1200Z 18.5N 90.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 29/1200Z 18.5N 90.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Snowman]

This storm is destined to die over the Yucatan

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 15:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 15L in 2010
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 14:53:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°28'N 82°05'W (14.4667N 82.0833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 338 miles (543 km) to the S (188°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,414m (4,639ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the NW (310°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 41° at 47kts (From the NE at ~ 54.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the northwest quadrant at 14:40:40Z

[Andrew]

Matthew seems like he is going to really bury himself into CA. It now looks like future nicole could be the storm to affect the US. Not completely sold on it yet though.

P.s. Trof isn't digging too much right now.

[srainhoutx]

Matthew sure has a large circulation...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 242035
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 83.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAVE DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 242036
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA FIXED THE
CENTER OF MATTHEW AT 1717 UTC ABOUT 30 NMI EAST OF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND WINDS
SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...MATTHEW MOVED
WESTWARD AND THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND IS NOW LOCATED INLAND SOUTH OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS. THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY
CURVED RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. SINCE THE CENTER IS ALREADY OVER LAND...GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN.

AS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD OVER HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THERE
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND NOAA BUOY DATA.

MATTHEW HAS DECREASED SOME IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
ABOUT 13 KNOTS...WELL EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE SHORT TERM...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
DAYS.

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 14.7N 83.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 15.2N 85.6W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1800Z 15.8N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0600Z 16.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 27/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[biggerbyte]

I just read Tim Hellers blog. He said something that is so true:

Quote:

If the storm makes it in the Gulf of Mexico early next week, a cool front and subsequent trough of low pressure moving across the U.S. should pull the storm toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico, away from Texas.  But if Matthew, or the remnants of Matthew are still sitting over central America come Monday, significant changes to the forecast may be required.


End Quote...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 242336
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER HONDURAS...TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 84.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

[srainhoutx]

Sobering...

[biggerbyte]

In the short term, Matt is behaving as expected. If he survives and were to get into the BOC after next Tuesday, things could get interesting for someone in the gulf region. Western Gulf not withstanding.

[Ptarmigan]

Sobering...

Looks to be a flooding disaster from it. Hope everyone is okay.