Remnants of Matthew Inland Over Southern Mexico

[Andrew]

The gfs is a joke so far. I doubt we are going to have a split in a system like this. It even creates a system before the split and that is what is creating the NE carribean system.

[srainhoutx]

We have a TD...

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[srainhoutx]

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INDICATE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL
ISSUE A SPECIAL ADVISORY AT 2 PM EDT TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

[wxman57]

The GFS takes the current vort in the Caribbean into the Yucatan and on into the BoC and dissapates, while another vort swings E from the EPAC and becomes a more dominate low that head up the W Coast of FL. Beyond that the GFS is almost silly to look at.

I'd argue that before that, the GFS is silly to look at. What I think the GFS may be seeing in the BoC is the trailing end of that cold front, a frontal wave. That, in itself, would be something to keep an eye on this time of year. But with a cold front across the NW Gulf next week, the place to look for potential landfalls is not the Texas coast.

[ticka1]

I agree with you Steve. Changes ahead. Days ahead that help speed up the head balding process.

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rb.html

Track changing or intensity?

[srainhoutx]

The GFS takes the current vort in the Caribbean into the Yucatan and on into the BoC and dissapates, while another vort swings E from the EPAC and becomes a more dominate low that head up the W Coast of FL. Beyond that the GFS is almost silly to look at.

I'd argue that before that, the GFS is silly to look at. What I think the GFS may be seeing in the BoC is the trailing end of that cold front, a frontal wave. That, in itself, would be something to keep an eye on this time of year. But with a cold front across the NW Gulf next week, the place to look for potential landfalls is not the Texas coast.

It (GFS) has provided a lot of entertainment and speculation, that's for sure. I don't envoy you. This looks like a forecasting challenge.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 231749
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 76.2W
ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF
HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON...INCLUDING
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT45 KNHC 231749
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON FOUND
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND WINDS
SUFFICIENT TO CLASSIFY THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY STRENGTHEN FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND PASS OVER OR NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION WILL BE PROVIDED IN THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY ISSUED AT 2100 UTC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1800Z 13.9N 76.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 14.1N 77.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 14.7N 80.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 15.4N 83.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 15.9N 85.1W 60 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1200Z 16.9N 87.8W 70 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 27/1200Z 18.0N 88.4W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/1200Z 19.5N 87.5W 70 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

Certainly looking more organized as the day has worn on...

[srainhoutx]

18Z Tracks...

[Andrew]

Look at the gulf:

[biggerbyte]

Matthew is born, folks... Tracks are still nudging westward.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 232041
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 232051
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
CYCLONE FOUND 42-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT ABOUT 1500 FT IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON ITS OUTBOUND LEG. THAT WIND SPEED WOULD
NORMALLY EQUATE TO ABOUT 34 KT AT THE SURFACE. ALSO...THERE WERE
SEVERAL BELIEVABLE SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 35-37 KT IN THAT AREA.
SINCE THOSE WIND REPORTS...CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO
INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED..AND THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14. TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
OR SO...AND PASS OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERN COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS IN 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON
THE TIMING OF THE WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST
TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY DAY 3...THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFY INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EROSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MATTHEW IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALL OF THE
NHC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYNOPTIC
SCALE PATTERN...EXCEPT FOR THE TIMING. THE GFS...ECMWF...NOGAPS...
HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS KEEP THE LOW WEST OF 85W LONGITUDE BY 120
HOURS...WHEREAS THE UKMET IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THE
LARGE TROUGH EAST OF 80W. GIVEN THE USUAL SLOW MOVEMENT OF SUCH
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH...THE UKMET IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER MODEL
AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND
OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS...EXCLUDING THE UKMET SOLUTION...
AND IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS SINCE MATTHEW
WILL BE MOVING OVER 30C SSTS AND BENEATH A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS IN 36-48 HOURS...AND MOVE INLAND NEAR
BELIZE BY DAY 4. LAND INTERACTION WOULD DISRUPT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS DESPITE THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER...THEN MATTHEW COULD
EASILY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION
THAT MATTHEW WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER 72 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 14.0N 76.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 14.4N 78.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 15.1N 81.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 15.6N 84.0W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/1800Z 16.2N 85.8W 60 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 26/1800Z 17.1N 88.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 18.3N 88.4W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/1800Z 19.5N 87.5W 70 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[biggerbyte]

Also note the activity in the BOC.

[biggerbyte]

So, Andrew, are you still with me on this either moving into the BOC, or dissipating over CA?

[Andrew]

So, Andrew, are you still with me on this either moving into the BOC, or dissipating over CA?

I still think it will dissipate over CA.

[srainhoutx]

The entire Western Basin is sensing the grye of lower pressures as well as Kelvin Wave and MJO pulse. There will likely be some interesting model runs as they struggle with that pattern.

[Andrew]

The entire Western Basin is sensing the grye of lower pressures as well as Kelvin Wave and MJO pulse. There will likely be some interesting model runs as they struggle with that pattern.

Its crazy srain. You have things popping up all over the place on the NAM. You have Matthew, the gulf, and another system behind Mathew. Talk about activity.

[biggerbyte]

Good call.. No doubt.

[Andrew]

Talk about activity:

[biggerbyte]

Well, Srain, I asked Andrew what he thought. What is your take on this system?