Wow! That far out and it is all pure speculation. Does lend the possibility to the conversation. First we have to get a system to form at all. Next, what will the conditions be at the time it does. Too many possible variables at this point to make a west gulf, or north/ne gulf call. I'd be careful to put all my apples in either basket for a few more days.
Also, it looks like we could be active until mid October this year.
Keep a wise eye to the sky, newbies. The fun may begin in just a few days.
I wonder why PGI46L is not tagged as an Invest? Here is a 324 Hour GFS model and it has a monster hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Looks larger than Gilbert! If named, it would be Matthew.
We may get a cool front through here over a Sunday/Monday timeframe. That would be out of the area long before a system in the Gulf gets cranking. We will need another front, or a strong trough digging down just at the right time to be completely safe. Maybe... Maybe not. That graphic looks scary.
biggerbyte wrote:We may get a cool front through here over a Sunday/Monday timeframe. That would be out of the area long before a system in the Gulf gets cranking. We will need another front, or a strong trough digging down just at the right time to be completely safe. Maybe... Maybe not. That graphic looks scary.
Sometimes, a tropical cyclone can get a cool front to pass, like Ike did in 2008. Also, if a front passed by and stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure system may form and become a hurricane, like Alicia in 1983.
NHC has put a Code Yellow up for the islands in the Carribean regarding the system we all are tracking. Good Morning Forum ......
. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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