Wx Infinity Forums

They still shift and break down the ridge, but that probably phantom system on the gfs distorts the surface depiction of the model runs.

TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 9:41 am They still shift and break down the ridge, but that probably phantom system on the gfs distorts the surface depiction of the model runs.

Yeah but I looked on the operationals and ensembles on the Euro and GFS and neither of them have any troughing over us but the ridge does start to move out after this week. So probably not as hot (near normal temps) and maybe 20-30% pops of afternoon heat storms. So basically near normal weather for early July.

Seems like one of the driest and hottest Junes ever. How does it stack up?

12z GFS is ugly. No rain through the whole run and upper 90’s to low 100’s every day.

I dont buy that GFS run, i dont see exceptionally wet conditions to start july, but I definitely dont think we see a repeat of the oast several weeks, the CPC has us near normal for precipitation to begin july , I think 20-40% chances for rain sound like a better bet, GFS is trash

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 1:19 pm I dont buy that GFS run, i dont see exceptionally wet conditions to start july, but I definitely dont think we see a repeat of the oast several weeks, the CPC has us near normal for precipitation to begin july , I think 20-40% chances for rain sound like a better bet, GFS is trash

I actually do buy it for the most part. I never really believed much of a pattern change was coming to begin with. It’s too far out to believe. And I don’t really think we’ll see and El Niño set in till the fall. The SOI isn’t really cooperating. It could very well be a decently active hurricane season. At least August I think will be busy.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 1:19 pm I dont buy that GFS run, i dont see exceptionally wet conditions to start july, but I definitely dont think we see a repeat of the oast several weeks, the CPC has us near normal for precipitation to begin july , I think 20-40% chances for rain sound like a better bet, GFS is trash

The ensembles still have much more of a break compared to the OP run. It's the eastward recurvature of the "phantom system" that ruined things for (southern) Texas in that particular GFS run.
"

user:null wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 1:54 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 1:19 pm I dont buy that GFS run, i dont see exceptionally wet conditions to start july, but I definitely dont think we see a repeat of the oast several weeks, the CPC has us near normal for precipitation to begin july , I think 20-40% chances for rain sound like a better bet, GFS is trash

The ensembles still have much more of a break compared to the OP run. I think the OP run got screwed due to the far eastward recurvature of the "phantom" system.

I’ll believe a pattern change once it gets inside of 5 days. SOI is also spiking again.

Cpv17, I'm aware of that, which is why I specifically said ensembles (which are better farther out compared to the OP runs that can be more erratic).

I think I also mentioned prior, but ENSO/SOI isn't that impactful regarding summer weather (at least this far equatorward): if anything, the +SOI does allow better chances of sea-breeze storms, as well as tropical relief (provided that Atlantic ridging holds strong enough, of course).

Dewpoint is 77°F, this is just insanity...


In Central Oklahoma!

The soi has been negative for the longest time and it hasn't provided much of any relief. I believe the negative pdo has been the wrinch in our heat done weather of late.

user:null wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 2:06 pm Cpv17, I'm aware of that, which is why I specifically said ensembles (which are better farther out compared to the OP runs that can be more erratic).

I think I also mentioned prior, but ENSO/SOI isn't that impactful regarding summer weather (at least this far equatorward): if anything, the +SOI does allow better chances of sea-breeze storms, as well as tropical relief (provided that Atlantic ridging holds strong enough, of course).

At this point I’m fine with a +SOI and for the El Niño to hold off a bit. I want some storms to track.

And yeah the ensembles look better than the operationals but I’m still hesitant to believe anything. These types of patterns we’re in are hard to break once established.

And btw, I wasn’t attacking you or anything. Communicating through text messages and message boards like this can be hard to perceive compared to having an actual conversation in person.

TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 2:24 pm The soi has been negative for the longest time and it hasn't provided much of any relief. I believe the negative pdo has been the wrinch in our heat done weather of late.

I’m not familiar enough with the PDO. Honestly have no clue how that impacts us.

There’s so many different oscillations. I don’t understand all of that lol

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 2:13 pm Dewpoint is 77°F, this is just insanity...


In Central Oklahoma!

I am sharing in your misery. 79 dewpoint here in Starkville with a 110 heat index. High today around 97 and by the end of the week, highs will be 100-102. This pattern needs to move on!

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 2:41 pm

TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 2:24 pm The soi has been negative for the longest time and it hasn't provided much of any relief. I believe the negative pdo has been the wrinch in our heat done weather of late.

I’m not familiar enough with the PDO. Honestly have no clue how that impacts us.

There’s so many different oscillations. I don’t understand all of that lol

-PDO is the colder than normal waters in the EPAC from Baja California to Hawaii, +PDO is the opposite.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 2:35 pmAnd btw, I wasn’t attacking you or anything. Communicating through text messages and message boards like this can be hard to perceive compared to having an actual conversation in person.

I know, I didn't say that you were. But yea, I did also mention the situation with message boards: especially this particular one as the user-interface isn't really that friendly for focusing discussions compared to, say, SouthernWX or even Storm2K.

Well I just looked at the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast from the CPC and they look a lot better.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 3:23 pm Well I just looked at the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast from the CPC and they look a lot better.

Above Normal Rainfall? BRING IT!

Wow thats quite a dramatic shift from the CPC, and. i love it!

100+ degrees every single day this week.