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DoctorMu the EPS flattens the heat ridge after the 20 th, fingers

A nice hot Saturday of watching development N of Houston this afternoon. For now, onward to Galveston for the afternoon.

Looks like NOAA and TWC nowcasting have caught up to our local KBTX weather who sniffed out potential storms last night. Allegedly in the 7 pm - 10 pm range. Fingers crossed for one last bout of rain before The Big Suck.

Models agree that the death ridge will not be making a permanent visit, CMC and Euro all break down the ridge now, eps flattens it after the 20th, CMC agrees as well, wont be bad at all

hmmm...the mesos have most of the energy east of here on the MCS. It's going to be close.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 10, 2023 1:13 pm Models agree that the death ridge will not be making a permanent visit, CMC and Euro all break down the ridge now, eps flattens it after the 20th, CMC agrees as well, wont be bad at all

I'm not really seeing that across models. Weaker, yes...but stronger on the ensembles than CMC. And strong enough on GFS to push the fantasy hurricane to Tampico on landfall.

NWS concurs.

Reality. Embrace the suck. Ouch - 100°F in Orlando, too. Jason, when are you headed to FL?



Ensembles have a few degrees cooler. We can only hope.

And thats why im going on vacation! Texas summers are the worst lol, fingers crossed that ridge breaks down

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 10, 2023 1:26 pm And thats why im going on vacation! Texas summers are the worst lol, fingers crossed that ridge breaks down

I’m not too worried about it. I don’t think it’ll stick around all summer.

The worst part of losing the NW flow is not just the increase in temps, but surging dewpoints from the 60s into the 70s.

Yech.

At least there's a little hope for this evening...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2023

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 262 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-005-027-035-041-051-073-093-099-113-139-143-145-161-185-
193-213-217-221-225-251-257-281-289-293-309-313-331-333-347-349-
367-373-395-397-403-405-407-423-425-439-455-467-471-110300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0262.230610T1935Z-230611T0300Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON ANGELINA BELL
BOSQUE BRAZOS BURLESON
CHEROKEE COMANCHE CORYELL
DALLAS ELLIS ERATH
FALLS FREESTONE GRIMES
HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL
HOOD HOUSTON JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LEON
LIMESTONE MADISON MCLENNAN
MILAM MILLS NACOGDOCHES
NAVARRO PARKER POLK
ROBERTSON ROCKWALL SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SMITH
SOMERVELL TARRANT TRINITY
VAN ZANDT WALKER
$$


ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...SHV...

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Jun 10, 2023 3:17 pm The worst part of losing the NW flow is not just the increase in temps, but surging dewpoints from the 60s into the 70s.

Yech.

It’ll be alright. Like I said, I don’t think it’ll be permanent. I’ve seen too many indicators to make me believe that.

Seeing weather youtube channels making videos about the GFS tropical “ trouble” stuff, oh boy let the fear mongering commence folks!

Well the NWS went for it and upped our rain chances to 70%.

I love it.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Jun 10, 2023 5:37 pm Well the NWS went for it and upped our rain chances to 70%.

I love it.

Same for us. I'm going to pic up some 30% Nitrogen, 2% iron fertilizer, lay it down and :pray.

Praying here too.. watch just extended southward to the coast

Severe Thunderstorm Watch
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
810 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2023

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC015-039-041-051-071-157-167-185-199-201-241-245-291-339-351-
361-471-473-477-110600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0264.230611T0110Z-230611T0600Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUSTIN BRAZORIA BRAZOS
BURLESON CHAMBERS FORT BEND
GALVESTON GRIMES HARDIN
HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON
LIBERTY MONTGOMERY NEWTON
ORANGE WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON
$$

Mega, mega outflow 50 mph gusts, cool air just a few minutes ago. We're now likely screwed for rain, especially since I put fertilizer down. It appears that the mesos nailed it. Almost all of the energy is east of here.

The Aggiedome appears to have set up a wall at the Brazos Co. line. There's the slightest chance the more northern line will provide some rain, but it will probably jump and reform south.

davidiowx wrote: ↑Sat Jun 10, 2023 8:35 pm Praying here too.. watch just extended southward to the coast

Severe Thunderstorm Watch
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
810 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2023

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC015-039-041-051-071-157-167-185-199-201-241-245-291-339-351-
361-471-473-477-110600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0264.230611T0110Z-230611T0600Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUSTIN BRAZORIA BRAZOS
BURLESON CHAMBERS FORT BEND
GALVESTON GRIMES HARDIN
HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON
LIBERTY MONTGOMERY NEWTON
ORANGE WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON
$$

North Cleveland and Conroe are about to get hammered. Then The Woodlands...

MCS moving through SE Texas