Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 27, 2023 5:59 pm
This has to be about the hottest June on record.
I remember 2011 being brutal, but I think it was a “dry heat”.
Last June was really bad as well, but I agree, this one is likely up there at the top. Very well could be the hottest given the dew points keeping lows in the 80s several nights.
Summer 2011 was hot and dry. 2011 was a very dry year.
I lost half of our trees.
I think there was NW flow for most of the summer. DPs during many days were in the lower 60s, even upper 50s. The ground became completely desiccated - no natural water even 6-8 inches deep.
That reminds me to begin 2X week tree watering above the sprinkler system. The new Sta-Green MAX, high nitrogen with 6% iron (instead of 2%) is like Gold, or Green for the lawn. I have vitamins and nitrogen feedings set up for the trees until the rains start during football season.
The gfs continues to try to spin up a weak low and move it into Louisiana at hour 162, hope that doesn’t verify as that would robe se texas of rain/ moisture
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2023 5:53 pm
The gfs continues to try to spin up a weak low and move it into Louisiana at hour 162, hope that doesn’t verify as that would robe se texas of rain/ moisture
Check out the GEFS though. Lots of rain just hugging the Texas coastline. At least on the 12z.
Cpv17 saw that, kinda weird thats an ensemble shows that much rain and its all over the gulf, but thats also interesting because it could mean an opportunity for a weak system or two potentially, euther way, its definitely looking at least a little bit better for rain
I’d just be happy with some cloud cover at this point. It’s 91 degrees outside at 8pm. Doesn’t feel near as bad as a week+ ago, but my plants are feeling the sun beat down for sure
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023
Day 17! Give it up for Day 17! Today is our 17th day in a row of
having some type of Heat hazard product in effect for at least a
portion of Southeast Texas...and that is expected to continue over
the next few days. There is hope on the horizon though as we head
into the weekend with ridging aloft beginning to break down and rain
chances returning to the forecast. We still have at least a couple
more days where we`ll reach Heat Advisory criteria (heat index
values greater than 108°F) and high temperatures near 100°F. There
will be a slight downward trend in temperatures next week, but
they`ll still be above normal with highs reaching the mid to upper
90s. Chances for showers/storms increase next week as moisture
increases along with incoming shortwaves as Southeast Texas gets
wedged between two mid-level highs.
With heat index values expected to be near or above Heat Advisory
criteria (greater than 108°F) over the next few days, please
continue to keep heat safety at the forefront of any plans that you
make. Know the locations of your nearest cooling centers, know the
signs of heat related illnesses, drink plenty of water to stay
hydrated, take frequent breaks from the heat, avoid strenuous
outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, wear light
clothing/sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock
your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is
too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their
paws. Stay safe, stay cool, and stay hydrated.
Batiste
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023
With the area remaining under the influence of mid/upper level
ridging (centered just to our north early this morning), there is
once again little change in the forecast. Southeast Texas is in
store for several more days with inland high temperatures in the
upper 90s to around 100 and peak heat index values right around 108
degrees. The Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area. With
very little changes expected tomorrow, we will likely need the
advisory again. Heat relief during the night is not happening with
most locations both tonight and Friday night in an upper 70s to low
80s range. These values could be close to high minimum temperature
records, similar to what the area saw yesterday (College Station
tied with 80, Houston Intercontinental tied with 81 and Palacios set
a new record with 84).
Continue to follow all heat safety tips to stay safe out there.
42
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023
Over the weekend, we`ll finally get to serve eviction papers to the
heatdome (mid/upper level ridge aloft) that decided to make Texas
its home for the past week or so. An upper level trough moving
across the Central Plains from the Western CONUS will be the
catalyst for the ridge breaking down and pushing out to the east.
Now just because the heatdome is gone doesn`t mean we`ll go back to
"pleasant" temperatures by any means. We`re still going to see above
average temperatures throughout the entire long term period...but at
least the near 100°F days will be in the past (for now) once we get
to early next week. Heat index values on Saturday are expected to
reach Heat Advisory criteria, but after that we`ll likely remain
below that threshold with heat index values ranging between 102-
107°F through midweek.
Let`s talk about rain chances since I`m sure some of you are
scouting things out for your 4th of July plans. With the heatdome
east of Southeast Texas by late Sunday, a shortwave trough will be
able to interact with the in-place moisture (PW values generally
around 1.6"-1.7") and bring a chance of showers/storms. These
chances initially will be highest near and south of I-10. Throughout
the week, we`ll see various shortwaves drift into the area providing
plenty of PVA. Available moisture content gradually increases
throughout the week due to the steady onshore flow as PW values rise
above the 75th percentile by late Monday. I do have 30-40% PoPs in
the forecast for the 4th of July, so you`ll definitely want to have
an umbrella with you for any outdoor plans as Mother Nature may
create a light show of her own. On the bright side, you have the
chance of feeling rain cooled air instead of the usual hot air if
you happen to have a shower/storm move over your area!
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023
MVFR/IFR ceilings in/around the CLL and UTS areas will dissipate this
morning. VFR areawide during the day today with mainly SSW to S winds
at around 7 to 10 knots. For now, have only CLL going MVFR late tonight
through early Friday morning. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023
Light to occasionally moderate southeasterly flow will continue to
prevail through the weekend and into next week. Winds may
periodically approach or even reach the caution flag threshold
during the overnight/early morning hours. Otherwise, expect seas to
remain in the 2 to 4 foot range with winds mainly in the 10 to 15
knots range. Rain chances return on Sunday and remain persistent
in the forecast into next week as moisture increases along with
various incoming upper level disturbances.
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...42
MARINE...Batiste
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023
VFR conditions and southerly winds will prevail into the late
night hours. Guidance indicates the potential for some pockets of
800-2000ft ceilings, and maybe some patchy fog, generally west of
the I-45 corridor in the 9-14z time period. For now, have not
advertised any ceilings in any of the TAFs, but later shifts will
need to monitor for the possibilities (moreso the CLL area).
Otherwise, VFR again on Friday from mid morning onward. 47
Looks like over the next couple weeks we’re gonna be stuck between two huge swaths of rain (the Midwest to the SE and Mexico) with only marginal chances for us. Still it’ll be a much better pattern than what we’ve been stuck in for basically the whole month of June. I was watching channel 13 last night and they had like a 60% chance of rain for next Thursday and Friday, I believe. I think that’s a bit too aggressive. I see nothing in the modeling right now that would warrant that but I do believe we could see 20-40% pops each day next week.
We just have to wait for the mesocale models to get in range, i definitely think we could have certain days that have high chsnces for rain and some with lower, i dont see any washouts though
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023
As of today (Friday), our streak of having some type of heat
hazard in effect stands at 18 days now. So, for 60% of the month
of June, at least a portion of Southeast Texas has had either a
Heat Advisory and/or Excessive Heat Warning in effect...that
really puts our back-to- back heatwaves into perspective! On the
bright side of things, Saturday looks to be our last day where a
Heat Advisory (heat index values greater than 108°F) may be needed
as the heatdome that has been in place for the past week finally
weakens and pushes out to the east. We`ll also see a return of
chances for showers/storms beginning Sunday and increasing early
next week as various upper level disturbances interacts with
increasing amounts of moisture. These are expected to mostly be
our typical showers/storms developing along the seabreeze in the
afternoon/evening hours...and yes there is a chance of rain rain
on the 4th of July.
With heat index values expected to be near or above Heat Advisory
criteria (greater than 108°F) over the next couple of days, please
continue to keep heat safety at the forefront of any plans that you
make. Know the locations of your nearest cooling centers, know the
signs of heat related illnesses, drink plenty of water to stay
hydrated, take frequent breaks from the heat, avoid strenuous
outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, wear light
clothing/sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock
your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is
too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their
paws. Stay safe, stay cool, and stay hydrated.
Batiste
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023
With high pressure (surface and aloft) still in charge, not
expecting much weather changes in the short term period. Late night
through early morning clouds (maybe some fog too) are anticipated
with low temperatures mainly in an upper 70s to lower 80s range.
With plenty of sunshine, inland daytime highs will be mainly in the
upper 90s, and heat index values will be close to a 105 to 110
degree range. The Heat Advisory will remain in effect today and will
probably be needed for a majority or all of the area again on
Saturday. There are some models hinting at a few possible showers
mainly near the coast and offshore over the next couple of days as
moisture levels gradually rise/build along the western edge of
surface high pressure. If you are looking for increasing rain
chances and slightly cooler temperatures, keep reading! 42
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023
C-C-C-Combo Breaker! The everlasting ridging aloft pattern that
brought our second heatwave of the month and continued our two week
plus streak of heat hazard products finally comes to an end by
Sunday as an upper level trough sweeps across the Central Plains. A
shortwave trough on the southern extent of the main upper level
trough will actually be the source of our increasing rain chances
heading into early next week. Before we dive into the wet week ahead
(see what I did there?), let`s talk about the slight downward trend
in temperatures. High temperatures on Sunday will top out in the
upper 90s, but heat index values are anticipated to be below 108°F
across all of Southeast Texas for the first time in over two weeks.
Heat index values throughout the week will range mainly from 100-
106°F, so still hot but not quite as hot as we`ve recently seen.
Temperatures continue to tumble down into the mid 90s by midweek
with GEFS/NAEFS ensembles reflecting 700/850mb temperatures maxing
out ONLY in the 90th percentile. It`s wild that we`re looking
forward to the mid 90s as a break! The increasing cloud cover and
rain chances play a role into the decreasing temperature trend as
well, and we`ll count that as our segue into discussing the rainfall
potential.
Going into late Sunday, a shortwave trough approaches the region
from the northwest. However, PW values will still be below the 75th
percentile initially. A decent approximation for the synoptic
setup next week is a midlevel high over the southwestern CONUS
and another midlevel high over Florida. With Southeast Texas
between these two, we`ll have a steady funnel of PVA with various
incoming shortwaves due to the northwesterly flow aloft.
Persistent onshore flow will steadily increase moisture as PW
value surge above the 75th percentile (~1.92") and near the 90th
percentile (~2.09") south of I-10 by late Tuesday. Tuesday just so
happens to be the 4th of July, so unfortunately there are chances
for showers/storms on the holiday. Expecting most of these storms
to be of the diurnal convection along the seabreeze in the
afternoon and dissipating after sunset variety, so not
anticipating complete washouts. One way or the other, there`ll be
some form of a light show on the 4th. Rain chances continue
throughout the week along with the decreasing temperature trend as
highs are expected to only top out in the LOW 90s by the end of
the work week. The low 90s are actually our normal temperatures
for this time of year...something we haven`t seen in over two
weeks!
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023
CLL has MVFR/IFR ceilings early this morning while other sites are VFR.
CLL`s clouds will lift and burn off this morning, and all TAF sites
will be VFR (SSW to SSE winds around 10 knots) this afternoon through
this evening. Expect to see some MVFR ceilings develop late tonight
through early Saturday morning with light SE to S winds. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023
Light to occasionally moderate onshore will continue to prevail
through the weekend and into next week with winds intermittently
approaching the caution flag threshold. The persistent onshore flow
will lead to increasing seas up to 4 to 6 feet by midweek along with
increased rip current risks. Chances for showers/storms return late
in the weekend and persists into next week due to increasing
moisture and various upper level disturbances moving through the
region.
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...42
MARINE...Batiste
