June 2023
So glad I'm going to Ruidoso this weekend and will dodge this heat.
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
I coached 4 baseball games yesterday and 2 today.
I LOAAAAATHEEEEE SUMMER!
On a side note, we finish Baseball in 2 weeks and we will be moving. If possible, I’ll change my name to ColoradoCoWx, but if not, no big deal.
I LOAAAAATHEEEEE SUMMER!
On a side note, we finish Baseball in 2 weeks and we will be moving. If possible, I’ll change my name to ColoradoCoWx, but if not, no big deal.
Team #NeverSummer
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Ill be going on vacation to denver soon , at least I can say goodbye to texas heat!
Jelly as the kids say. We won't head to Minnesota until August.
The latest 00z GFS shows Canada starting to pick up the tab...
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
00z Euro showing days of low 100’s for highs in se texas 
🥵🥵
🥵🥵
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
As I have agreed with you countless times over the many years, I feel your pain. This Saturday, we have a USA swim meet ( I have to work it and my kid has to swim it) at the FBISD Training Center. Essentially, it is a garage over a pool, so the temperatures in there will get crazy hot. I have never been in there with temperatures over 100, but surprise, I will this Saturday. I LOATHE Summer!MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Jun 11, 2023 6:29 pm I coached 4 baseball games yesterday and 2 today.
I LOAAAAATHEEEEE SUMMER!
On a side note, we finish Baseball in 2 weeks and we will be moving. If possible, I’ll change my name to ColoradoCoWx, but if not, no big deal.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 121135
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Uncommonly hot weather will continue to strengthen its grip across
the area today, making a continued awareness of conditions important
for spending time outdoors during the hours of peak sunshine and
heat in the mid-day and afternoon.
For today and tomorrow, temperatures will begin to nudge closer to
record values than to normal values, with peak heat index values
mostly in the 105-108 range. As the week continues, expect heat to
only ratchet up. Temperatures meeting or exceeding 100 degrees
become a part of the forecast, with peak heat index values rise
above 108 degrees. This would prompt the issuance of heat advisories.
Regardless of the numbers, it is important to take heat safety
seriously, and be aware and responsive to the signs of heat illness.
The best way to handle heat stress is to do your best to prevent it
in the first place.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
A couple hot days ahead, but it still appears that the hottest days
of the week lie ahead in the long term. For today and tomorrow, look
for subtropical ridging to increasing assert itself from the south,
holding at bay the continued progressive pattern in the northern
stream. This does create a bit of an awkward transition zone way up
at the northern end of our forecast area, mainly for Houston and
Madison counties. Up there, each night we`ll need to watch North
Texas as strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to form in the
afternoon, and gradually drift to the south-southeast.
Like last night, these storms should die off before reaching the
area, leaving showers at most to drift into our north before
dissipating. That said, there is still some chance that a storm
holds together into one of these two counties before giving out. If
one night were to be better than another, I`d lean towards tomorrow
night, as a passing shortwave trough looks to dent the subtropical
ridge a little more effectively, and could allow the instability
needed for a bit more of a southern push before giving out.
Beyond that, the focus is on temperatures and heat index values.
With ridging a little stronger and subtle warm advection at low
levels occurring thanks to southwesterly flow, my highs for today
and tomorrow are a little higher than what we saw yesterday.
Instead of lower to middle 90s, I drift up to the middle to upper
90s inland, away from the modestly moderating influence of the Gulf.
In the warmer spots, we`ll be closer to record highs than normal
highs. Afternoon dewpoints, however, are a little lower and so peak
heat index values end up in the 105-108 range for the across the
area. I wouldn`t be surprised to see isolated hot spots with poorer
vertical mixing in the afternoon drift slightly higher into the 108-
110 range. This had me again pondering a heat advisory, but don`t
want to distract from what looks like will be an increase in the
intensity of heat later this week. This early week looks hot. The
mid to late week looks HOT. Which seems like a good time to hand it
off to the long term.
Luchs
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Wednesday and Thursday will feature zonal flow aloft due to the
presence of a strong mid/upper level ridge over Mexico and a
series of shortwaves passing well to our north. This flow will
advect hotter than normal temperatures into southeast Texas.
Global deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show
impressively warm 850mb temperatures. As this hot mid-level air
mass is mixed down to the surface, temperatures across southeast
Texas will become quite toasty. By Friday into the weekend, the
ridge over Mexico builds northward, increasing pressure heights
and keeping us in this hot pattern. So how hot are we talking
about?
Over the last few days, our forecasts have actually skewed warmer
than the NBM, and most of the guidance for that matter, due to
some of these aforementioned signals suggesting temperatures could
be warmer than the models suggest. It appears the models have
gotten the memo and are warming up to reality so to speak. The
temperature forecast for the long range is basically the NBM in
this update. Widespread highs on Wednesday are expected to be
upper-90s to low-100s. By Thursday and beyond, most locations are
expected to reach the low-100s. Overnight lows are expected to
range from the mid-70s to low-80s. Of course areas near the coast
are likely to be a little cooler in the afternoon. But don`t
expect it to be comfortable with high temps well into the 90s. Our
NMB leaning temp grids are also showing some areas west of Houston
approaching 105F by the end of the week. Unfortunately, we must
contend with humidity here in southeast Texas. Therefore, once
humidity is added to the equation, our second half of the week
afternoon heat index values are expected to surpass 110F. It is
looking like a week of heat advisories and possibly excessive heat
warnings.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Mix of VFR and MVFR generally, as low as IFR at UTS thanks to
stratus along and behind an outflow boundary from last night`s
storms. Have brief TEMPOs at CXO, IAH, and conservatively at HOU
as the boundary moves to the southwest. All lower clouds area-wide
should lift and scatter within the first few hours of the period,
resulting in VFR and winds increasing to around 10 knots and
becoming more southerly. Some patchy fog and stratus may be
expected again late tonight towards dawn.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Light to moderate onshore flow is expected today. Winds could
occasionally reach caution flag status. This onshore flow will
increase on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing a good chance of
caution level winds. Could not rule out winds managing to reach
advisory level, or about 20 knots sustained, at times. Seas are
expected to peak in the 4 to 5 foot range during this time
offshore. Winds and seas may decrease somewhat by the end of the
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 73 96 74 / 0 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 97 75 96 76 / 0 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 88 81 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 121135
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Uncommonly hot weather will continue to strengthen its grip across
the area today, making a continued awareness of conditions important
for spending time outdoors during the hours of peak sunshine and
heat in the mid-day and afternoon.
For today and tomorrow, temperatures will begin to nudge closer to
record values than to normal values, with peak heat index values
mostly in the 105-108 range. As the week continues, expect heat to
only ratchet up. Temperatures meeting or exceeding 100 degrees
become a part of the forecast, with peak heat index values rise
above 108 degrees. This would prompt the issuance of heat advisories.
Regardless of the numbers, it is important to take heat safety
seriously, and be aware and responsive to the signs of heat illness.
The best way to handle heat stress is to do your best to prevent it
in the first place.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
A couple hot days ahead, but it still appears that the hottest days
of the week lie ahead in the long term. For today and tomorrow, look
for subtropical ridging to increasing assert itself from the south,
holding at bay the continued progressive pattern in the northern
stream. This does create a bit of an awkward transition zone way up
at the northern end of our forecast area, mainly for Houston and
Madison counties. Up there, each night we`ll need to watch North
Texas as strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to form in the
afternoon, and gradually drift to the south-southeast.
Like last night, these storms should die off before reaching the
area, leaving showers at most to drift into our north before
dissipating. That said, there is still some chance that a storm
holds together into one of these two counties before giving out. If
one night were to be better than another, I`d lean towards tomorrow
night, as a passing shortwave trough looks to dent the subtropical
ridge a little more effectively, and could allow the instability
needed for a bit more of a southern push before giving out.
Beyond that, the focus is on temperatures and heat index values.
With ridging a little stronger and subtle warm advection at low
levels occurring thanks to southwesterly flow, my highs for today
and tomorrow are a little higher than what we saw yesterday.
Instead of lower to middle 90s, I drift up to the middle to upper
90s inland, away from the modestly moderating influence of the Gulf.
In the warmer spots, we`ll be closer to record highs than normal
highs. Afternoon dewpoints, however, are a little lower and so peak
heat index values end up in the 105-108 range for the across the
area. I wouldn`t be surprised to see isolated hot spots with poorer
vertical mixing in the afternoon drift slightly higher into the 108-
110 range. This had me again pondering a heat advisory, but don`t
want to distract from what looks like will be an increase in the
intensity of heat later this week. This early week looks hot. The
mid to late week looks HOT. Which seems like a good time to hand it
off to the long term.
Luchs
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Wednesday and Thursday will feature zonal flow aloft due to the
presence of a strong mid/upper level ridge over Mexico and a
series of shortwaves passing well to our north. This flow will
advect hotter than normal temperatures into southeast Texas.
Global deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show
impressively warm 850mb temperatures. As this hot mid-level air
mass is mixed down to the surface, temperatures across southeast
Texas will become quite toasty. By Friday into the weekend, the
ridge over Mexico builds northward, increasing pressure heights
and keeping us in this hot pattern. So how hot are we talking
about?
Over the last few days, our forecasts have actually skewed warmer
than the NBM, and most of the guidance for that matter, due to
some of these aforementioned signals suggesting temperatures could
be warmer than the models suggest. It appears the models have
gotten the memo and are warming up to reality so to speak. The
temperature forecast for the long range is basically the NBM in
this update. Widespread highs on Wednesday are expected to be
upper-90s to low-100s. By Thursday and beyond, most locations are
expected to reach the low-100s. Overnight lows are expected to
range from the mid-70s to low-80s. Of course areas near the coast
are likely to be a little cooler in the afternoon. But don`t
expect it to be comfortable with high temps well into the 90s. Our
NMB leaning temp grids are also showing some areas west of Houston
approaching 105F by the end of the week. Unfortunately, we must
contend with humidity here in southeast Texas. Therefore, once
humidity is added to the equation, our second half of the week
afternoon heat index values are expected to surpass 110F. It is
looking like a week of heat advisories and possibly excessive heat
warnings.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Mix of VFR and MVFR generally, as low as IFR at UTS thanks to
stratus along and behind an outflow boundary from last night`s
storms. Have brief TEMPOs at CXO, IAH, and conservatively at HOU
as the boundary moves to the southwest. All lower clouds area-wide
should lift and scatter within the first few hours of the period,
resulting in VFR and winds increasing to around 10 knots and
becoming more southerly. Some patchy fog and stratus may be
expected again late tonight towards dawn.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Light to moderate onshore flow is expected today. Winds could
occasionally reach caution flag status. This onshore flow will
increase on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing a good chance of
caution level winds. Could not rule out winds managing to reach
advisory level, or about 20 knots sustained, at times. Seas are
expected to peak in the 4 to 5 foot range during this time
offshore. Winds and seas may decrease somewhat by the end of the
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 73 96 74 / 0 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 97 75 96 76 / 0 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 88 81 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self
Looking at the forecast…all I can say is I’m glad to be back in Florida. 90 with a sea breeze suits me just fine.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I have a feeling we wont see decent rain chances again until the beginning of july, looks like at least a 2-3 week stretch of dry and very hot weather, maybe even longer than that, cant wait for denver! Sorry texas summer but you will not be missed at all
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
rea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Fcst reasoning remains the same...will be monitoring storm
development to our nw later in the day. A few of the 12z HREF
members show a few remnant cells making it a touch further
southeast into some of our northern counties this evening...while
others still depict them dissipating before that. Went ahead and
added at some low end POPs a touch further south so the
possibility at least shows up in the fcst. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
VFR conditions for the rest of the day and into the overnight
hours. Will monitor tstms upstream later today and see if there
will be a need to mention some precip in later CLL/UTS TAFs
should it appear remnants might make it that far southeast. But
for now, will keep it out. Otherwise, may see a few hours of MVFR
cigs develop in the 12-16z timeframe once we see some heating
and/or outflows. Skies scatter out after that with VFR conditions
and south winds 10-17kt prevailing on Tues. 47
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Fcst reasoning remains the same...will be monitoring storm
development to our nw later in the day. A few of the 12z HREF
members show a few remnant cells making it a touch further
southeast into some of our northern counties this evening...while
others still depict them dissipating before that. Went ahead and
added at some low end POPs a touch further south so the
possibility at least shows up in the fcst. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
VFR conditions for the rest of the day and into the overnight
hours. Will monitor tstms upstream later today and see if there
will be a need to mention some precip in later CLL/UTS TAFs
should it appear remnants might make it that far southeast. But
for now, will keep it out. Otherwise, may see a few hours of MVFR
cigs develop in the 12-16z timeframe once we see some heating
and/or outflows. Skies scatter out after that with VFR conditions
and south winds 10-17kt prevailing on Tues. 47
-
captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Y'all need to come east for sure. It was about 70 degrees this morning here at 10:30 am in Starkville. Hottest it's supposed to be over the next 10 days is about 90 and there is a chance of thunderstorms almost every day.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 12, 2023 2:36 pm Y'all need to come east for sure. It was about 70 degrees this morning here at 10:30 am in Starkville. Hottest it's supposed to be over the next 10 days is about 90 and there is a chance of thunderstorms almost every day.
You don't miss this Captain? LOL Look at these temperatures...
Thursday Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 101.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 77.
Friday Sunny and hot, with a high near 102.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 79.
Saturday Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 102.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 79.
Sunday Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 102.
It rains in MS almost all the time. That’s not a surprise.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 12, 2023 2:36 pm Y'all need to come east for sure. It was about 70 degrees this morning here at 10:30 am in Starkville. Hottest it's supposed to be over the next 10 days is about 90 and there is a chance of thunderstorms almost every day.
80s for the next week in StarkVegas.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 12, 2023 3:33 pmIt rains in MS almost all the time. That’s not a surprise.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 12, 2023 2:36 pm Y'all need to come east for sure. It was about 70 degrees this morning here at 10:30 am in Starkville. Hottest it's supposed to be over the next 10 days is about 90 and there is a chance of thunderstorms almost every day.
I actually like the trends regarding the ridge evolution over Texas across today's runs. The good rains in MS could make it here soon enough.
The GFS (especially 00z, 06z, and now 18z) display what needs to happen to render the coming heatwave as transient as possible ... and the CMC and EMCWF look to be setting up to similar orientations regarding the GFS (from what I can tell regarding their shorter run times).
The GFS (especially 00z, 06z, and now 18z) display what needs to happen to render the coming heatwave as transient as possible ... and the CMC and EMCWF look to be setting up to similar orientations regarding the GFS (from what I can tell regarding their shorter run times).
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
user:null what is the orientation of the heat ridge they are showing?
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captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Yep. I'm ready for football as soon as my new cowbell is ready. I'm hoping to get a custom designed pirate cowbell in honor of our former coach Mike Leach.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Jun 12, 2023 6:13 pm80s for the next week in StarkVegas.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 12, 2023 3:33 pmIt rains in MS almost all the time. That’s not a surprise.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 12, 2023 2:36 pm Y'all need to come east for sure. It was about 70 degrees this morning here at 10:30 am in Starkville. Hottest it's supposed to be over the next 10 days is about 90 and there is a chance of thunderstorms almost every day.
Today's 06z run shows the best example of what I mean, and what is most desired regarding cooler outcomes in Texas. Looking at the mark ~200-240hrs, you can see how the Texas ridge feature sort of "phases" with a ridging feature over Canada. This creates more of an "elongated" ridging feature across the US, which is better for Texas as it allows easterly "inverted troughs" for decent rains (and, not to mention, no focused oven roasting on Texas).Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 12, 2023 8:28 pm user:null what is the orientation of the heat ridge they are showing?
The CMC and Euro both took steps towards being less progressive with the Canadian ridge feature in today's runs. That would give greater chance of the "phasing" as mentioned, had their runs continued longer.
As for the near-term heat period, dewpoints/mixing will play a role with the true temp outcomes regardless of what global models show. If, say, the NAM wins out, then it's more mid-upper 90s for later this week into the weekend instead of the anticipated 100s.