high dewpoint issue/overall pattern

[tireman4]

High Low Record High
September 9 90 71 100 1909 75 1974 59 1988 80 1962 4.22 1900 1.26 32.39


Climo suggests that we are not too far off.... temperature wise.

[Baseballdude2915]

It won't be too long AZ. A couple more weeks of warm weather, at least it isn't scorching.

Remember,
Some years stay warmer later in the fall, some cool off quickly, it all balances out to what we call "climatology" .

[Mr. T]

This isn't anything unusual for this time of year.

Our fall doesn't really begin until November, anyway

And with a strong La Nina, you better enjoy every strong push of cold air we get, because there won't be many

[svrwx0503]

And with a strong La Nina, you better enjoy every strong push of cold air we get, because there won't be many

However, the few strong pushes we do get, could be quite cold with this type of pattern.

[Mr. T]

However, the few strong pushes we do get, could be quite cold with this type of pattern.

Heh, true... I was semi-trolling AZ a bit

I'd love another Feb 89

With the upcoming synoptic pattern this winter, two key features will likely be in place. We'll have well above average heights across the SE and well below average heights across the Alaska, Gulf of Alaska regions (strong pac jet +EPO pattern). This will allow very cold air to bottle itself up in Canada and periodically the northern Plains / Pac NW. However, in such a pattern, it is extremely hard to get this air to filter into our region. This is because of a lack of blocking across the western regions of Canada that would allow this cold air to have a substantial push southward. We've officially had 4 strong La Nina's since 1950, and each of those winters have seen very long stretches of highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. It could get very ugly warm at times this winter. However, if at any point the pattern breaks and any kind of a blocking pattern were to develop, some of this very bitter cold air could definitely make a run for our area. February 1989 is a great example (88-89 was a strong La Nina). The cold air was so dense, it flowed underneath an unfavorable ridging pattern across our area, causing Houston to have nearly 5 days below freezing in a row! Now, that would be awesome to see again!

Last winter we had a favorable blocking pattern across the regions that mattered most (severely negative AO, NAO, and very nice -EPO ridging) that led to a sustained cold pattern across our area. However, this same pattern never allowed the coldest of air to flow into the States as true cross polar flow was never established. The opposite may be true this winter. We'll likely see a strong cross polar flow bringing in some extremely cold air into Canada and the Northern Plains. However, the problem will be trying to get any of that into our area.

Another thing to talk about would be possible precip patterns this year. La Nina's are typically a bit dry, though you have a few heavy rainfall events here and there that can really skew things, as we all know...

[djjordan]

We seem to have been lacking in the past few years a significant Fall severe weather season in our area as well. Wonder what this Fall will hold with the current La Nina.

[Ptarmigan]

Heh, true... I was semi-trolling AZ a bit

I'd love another Feb 89

With the upcoming synoptic pattern this winter, two key features will likely be in place. We'll have well above average heights across the SE and well below average heights across the Alaska, Gulf of Alaska regions (strong pac jet +EPO pattern). This will allow very cold air to bottle itself up in Canada and periodically the northern Plains / Pac NW. However, in such a pattern, it is extremely hard to get this air to filter into our region. This is because of a lack of blocking across the western regions of Canada that would allow this cold air to have a substantial push southward. We've officially had 4 strong La Nina's since 1950, and each of those winters have seen very long stretches of highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. It could get very ugly warm at times this winter. However, if at any point the pattern breaks and any kind of a blocking pattern were to develop, some of this very bitter cold air could definitely make a run for our area. February 1989 is a great example (88-89 was a strong La Nina). The cold air was so dense, it flowed underneath an unfavorable ridging pattern across our area, causing Houston to have nearly 5 days below freezing in a row! Now, that would be awesome to see again!

Last winter we had a favorable blocking pattern across the regions that mattered most (severely negative AO, NAO, and very nice -EPO ridging) that led to a sustained cold pattern across our area. However, this same pattern never allowed the coldest of air to flow into the States as true cross polar flow was never established. The opposite may be true this winter. We'll likely see a strong cross polar flow bringing in some extremely cold air into Canada and the Northern Plains. However, the problem will be trying to get any of that into our area.

Another thing to talk about would be possible precip patterns this year. La Nina's are typically a bit dry, though you have a few heavy rainfall events here and there that can really skew things, as we all know...

Since La Nina is drier, it makes the air more likely to cool down. Some of the biggest and prolonged freeze occurred in La Nina like January/February 1951 and February 1989 Freeze. The 1951 freeze is the longest freezing period ever recorded in Houston. It could happen again this winter.

I don't look forward to another cockroach ridge that denies us rain.