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TD Karl Inland West of Veracruz, MX
Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 8:30 pm
by Andrew
As requested by Srain many models have been looking at possible development in the western Caribbean late next week:
Euro:
http://forums.khou.com/download/file.ph ... &mode=view
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A FEW HUNDRED
MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES
LITTLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 8:59 pm
by srainhoutx
12Z GEM...
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 9:39 pm
by Andrew
Nam at 66h (also look at gulf)
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 9:57 pm
by Andrew
NAM 84h:
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 10:34 pm
by srainhoutx
Storms continue tonight. We may well see an invest in 48 hours. Perhaps a TD...
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 10:51 pm
by Andrew
GFS 36h and it begins:
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 11:03 pm
by Andrew
GFS indicates that development will be slow and this looks practical. This is looking like a large system and development is usually slow with larger systems. Also there is a giant weakness to the north with the trof and a general NW movement (once formed) should continue until the ridge builds back in and sends it west.
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 11:09 pm
by Andrew
GFS at hour 60:
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 11:24 pm
by Andrew
Keeps it weak at 144h but looks like tremendous potential:
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 11:32 pm
by Andrew
Hour 180:
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 11:37 pm
by Andrew
288 (not what you want to see):
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 11:41 pm
by Andrew
Well then...:
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 11:51 pm
by Andrew
NOGAPS 96H:
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2010 12:06 am
by Andrew
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2010 12:11 am
by Andrew
CMC (Time for bed):
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2010 2:45 am
by Scott747
Oz Euro is a slow developer (and I mean slow as it takes another week before making it across the Caribbean) as it nears the YP and quickly strengthens in the GOM eventually hitting near Tampico. Slow enough in movement that there could always be a weakness to pull it up, otherwise this seems like a low runner.
The model observations have really gone downhill in a hurry at some of the other boards. To many people are doing nothing but wishcasting.
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2010 5:49 am
by wxman57
What I see in the models is general info that after mid month, the Caribbean and Gulf may become active. I wouldn't believe specifics from any model at this point, though.
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2010 7:21 am
by srainhoutx
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Re: Possible Western Caribbean Development?
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2010 7:23 am
by srainhoutx
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009091204
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2010, DB, O, 2010090912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922010
AL, 92, 2010090812, , BEST, 0, 118N, 583W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010090818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 587W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010090900, , BEST, 0, 120N, 591W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010090906, , BEST, 0, 121N, 596W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010090912, , BEST, 0, 122N, 602W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Re: Invest 92L Near Windward Islands
Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2010 7:41 am
by srainhoutx
Oh no...
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 091230
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 UTC THU SEP 9 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100909 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100909 1200 100910 0000 100910 1200 100911 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 60.4W 12.4N 60.8W 12.5N 61.5W 12.8N 62.5W
BAMD 12.2N 60.4W 12.3N 61.2W 12.6N 62.5W 13.0N 64.2W
BAMM 12.2N 60.4W 12.3N 61.0W 12.3N 62.0W 12.5N 63.4W
LBAR 12.2N 60.4W 12.5N 61.2W 13.0N 62.5W 13.7N 64.0W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 46KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100911 1200 100912 1200 100913 1200 100914 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 63.7W 13.8N 66.9W 14.9N 70.4W 16.8N 74.1W
BAMD 13.4N 66.2W 13.9N 71.2W 14.0N 76.5W 13.6N 81.6W
BAMM 12.7N 65.1W 13.2N 68.9W 13.7N 72.7W 14.8N 76.3W
LBAR 14.4N 66.0W 16.2N 70.8W 17.7N 75.8W 19.2N 79.8W
SHIP 58KTS 76KTS 88KTS 101KTS
DSHP 58KTS 76KTS 88KTS 101KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 60.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 59.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 58.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
