Contest! First Fun-derstorm Day

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

When Will We See Our First Significant Severe Weather Threat For The Houston Area

Current through March 7
1
4%
March 8 to 15
5
19%
March 16 to March 23
9
33%
March 23 to March 30
3
11%
March 31st through April 6
4
15%
April 6 through April 30
5
19%
Not Before May
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 27
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Ptarmigan
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Did anyone hear thunder around 1:00 AM last night. I thought I did.
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wxdata
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Slight Risk edged a little closer to SE TX; still severe threat highest east of here on Saturday.

"ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY BE ONGOING WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX SATURDAY MORNING...THE GREATER THREAT
SHOULD EXIST FURTHER EAST AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. "

Houston NWS
"EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING AND INSTABILITY AND ONLY MODERATE SHEAR SO SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME. "

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... 0_prt.html
weatherguy425
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Cell NW of abilene has the potentialof hving 1.5 diameter hail and maybe a hook developing on radar?
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srainhoutx
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Image

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL TX INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 192352Z - 200145Z

ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING
/02-03Z/ ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX SWD INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO
AROUND 1 INCH...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

AT 2345Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A STRONG TSTM LOCATED OVER FISHER
COUNTY TX...WITH THIS TSTM LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A SSEWD
MOVING COLD FRONT AND A SWD EXTENDING DRY LINE. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AS THE DRY
LINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION TRANSLATES SWD WITH THE SSEWD MOVEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
/WITH SURFACE INFLOW DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 F AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8 C/KM/ SUGGEST MUCAPE AROUND 700 J/KG. THIS COMBINED
WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SUPPORTS BOTH MULTICELL AND
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE SSEWD MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD UNDERCUT
MOST ACTIVITY ONCE IT DEVELOPS WITH STRONG WINDS BEING AN ADDITIONAL
THREAT WITH THE INITIAL PHASE OF THE STORMS.

..PETERS.. 03/19/2010


ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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weatherguy425
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC123-285-201415-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0005.100320T1336Z-100320T1415Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
836 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DEWITT COUNTY...
LAVACA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT.

* AT 830 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER DEWITT AND LAVACA COUNTIES CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
ARE ALONG A FAST MOVING PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND WILL AFFECT
DEWITT AND LAVACA COUNTIES THROUGH 915 AM...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...SOME
HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HOCHHEIM...THOMASTON...
YOAKUM...HALLETTSVILLE AND EZZELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
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srainhoutx
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Getting some bowing just W of Waller County as the squall line makes its run toward the area...(Warning Dailup Users)

Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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ticka1
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Its coming.
weatherguy425
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
914 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

TXZ177-196>199-210>213-226-227-235-201515-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-COLORADO-FORT
BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-MONTGOMERY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
914 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 907 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 24 MILES NORTH OF
NAVASOTA TO 11 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS TO 31 MILES NORTHWEST OF EDNA
TO 32 MILES WEST OF EDNA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...WADSWORTH...VANDERBILT...SHERIDAN...ROCK ISLAND...ROANS
PRAIRIE...MORALES...LOUISE...EGYPT...SPRING...BEDIAS...ANDERSON...
WILLIS...WHARTON...TOMBALL...ROSENBERG...PRAIRIE VIEW...PINEHURST...
NAVASOTA...MONTGOMERY...LA WARD...KATY...HEMPSTEAD...EL CAMPO...
EDNA...EAGLE LAKE...CONROE...COLUMBUS...BELLVILLE...AND BEASLEY.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS TO
BLOW AROUND. AVOID TALL OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT CAN ATTRACT LIGHTNING.
IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE OR
NON-CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 2934 9659 2958 9682 2981 9650 3084 9614
3085 9608 3052 9538 2946 9575 2901 9637
2869 9654 2870 9664 2902 9684 2906 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1410Z 298DEG 31KT 3072 9603 2974 9635
2928 9699 2894 9714
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srainhoutx
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Line appears to be getting just abit stronger as it approaches the area.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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To our SW near Matagorda Bay...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC057-469-201545-
/O.NEW.KCRP.SV.W.0002.100320T1446Z-100320T1545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
946 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS
SOUTHERN VICTORIA COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 942 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH AND PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
VICTORIA COLLEGE...OR NEAR VICTORIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GUADALUPE AND TELFERNER BY 950 AM CDT...
DACOSTA BY 955 AM CDT...
POINT COMFORT BY 1040 AM CDT...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC239-201545-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0005.100320T1453Z-100320T1545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
953 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 939 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7 MILES WEST OF MORALES TO
VICTORIA...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. WINDS GUSTED TO 53 MPH
AS THE STORMS PASSED OVER THE AIRPORT IN VICTORIA.


* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO GANADO....MORALES...EDNA...VANDERBILT...LAKE TEXANA DAM...
LA WARD.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Houstonkid
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In the middle of it out here in Katy, some wind & heavy rain, very few lightening strikes.
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srainhoutx
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0928 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 201428Z - 201600Z

MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER COASTAL TX PLAIN THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. A CONVECTIVE WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM/SQUALL LINE...WITH THE BRUNT OF IT
EXTENDING FROM THE COLLEGE STATION TO VICTORIA AREAS AS OF
1415Z...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD /AT AROUND 30-35
KT/ ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING. WHILE THIS MATURE QLCS HAS/MAY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
LEWP/EMBEDDED MESO-VORTEX TYPE CHARACTERIZES...WEAK BUOYANCY/DEGREE
OF LOW LEVEL CINH...PER MODIFIED 12Z CRP OBSERVED RAOB/RUC SOUNDINGS
GIVEN ONLY AROUND 60 F/MIDDLE 50S F SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS
RESPECTIVELY...ARE SUGGESTIVE OF ONLY A MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND THREAT THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...NO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED.

..GUYER.. 03/20/2010


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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wxman57
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I'm not seeing much lightning along the line heading into Houston. Just a brief period of heavy rain followed by a couple hours of lingering much lighter rain.
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wxdata
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NWS:

A SQUALL LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THIS LINE OF STORMS TO BE
ROUGHLY SITUATED FROM COLDSPRING TO DOWNTOWN HOUSTON TO MATAGORDA
BAY BY 1050 AM....CLEVELAND TO PEARLAND TO BAY CITY BY 1115 AM...AND
FROM WINNIE TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF SARGENT BY 1230 PM. THOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...WINDS WILL REALLY INCREASE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 40 MPH. THERE ARE SEVERAL OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES GOING ON TODAY. KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY...AND PLAN TO
SEEK SHELTER AS YOU OBSERVE THESE STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST.
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srainhoutx
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Getting some rumbles of thunder now as storms transition to elevated in NW Harris County.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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wxdata
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Radar indicates 1.28" hail possible southeast of Edna.
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wxdata
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1048 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

TXZ226-235-236-201645-
JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
1048 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 1042 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 25 MILES WEST OF BAY CITY...OR 14 MILES WEST OF
MIDFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SOUTH TEXAS NUCLEAR
PLANT...MIDFIELD...MATAGORDA...DANEVANG...BLESSING AND BAY CITY.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL TREE BRANCHES TO BE BROKEN...AND
UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
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wxdata
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Echo tops in the storm over westerb Matagorda county now approaching now over 34,000 ft.
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srainhoutx
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wxdata wrote:Echo tops in the storm over western Matagorda county now approaching now over 34,000 ft.
Almost has a Meso Low look to it.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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