Contest! First Fun-derstorm Day

[Portastorm]

I voted. I with you, Ed. Earlier is better.

[kayci]

Contest huh? So what's the prize if we win?

[Ptarmigan]

All I can tell you is that severe weather hits March quite often. We are making the transition from winter to spring. April gets a lot of severe weather too.

[wxman57]

I chose March 16-23, hoping that the storm track shifts north by then and we get some warmer temps.

At my office, one of our clients supports 4-5 contests a year with a $100 prize. One of them is the first 95F at IAH contest. I suggested this year that we lower that to the first 85F.

[redneckweather]

Not severe but darn if I didn't just hear a nice roll of thunder! Man, what a pleasant sound to hear!!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[redneckweather]

Well the line hit and man did it have some good hail in it! Lots of pea sized hail that started to cover the ground. It lasted for a couple of minutes but is now gone. That was very unexpected.

[wxman57]

Small but perky cell in Ft Bedn County, should affect Southern Harris. Small hail, maybe.

RUC sounding for 3 pm at HOU shows not lapse rates above 600 mb level, but nada below. This is probably really high based.

Any GR3 or whatever its called radar afficonadoes know what the bases and tops are, and whether it has hail?

Radar seems to indicate pea to marble-sized hail with the cell approaching Sugar Land.

[wxdata]

SPC- low risk for severe weather in Central Texas on Monday

" AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST BUOYANCY
WILL BE THAT STRONG...THUS WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5% PROBABILITIES FOR
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. IF STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR THEN A SLIGHT RISK WOULD BE REQUIRED."

[wxdata]

Sunday's SPC- atmosphere a bit more juicy, especially further west-

"THE RELATIVELY GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE
DESTABILIZATION/SURFACE BASED TSTMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX MONDAY AFTERNOON. HERE...WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELLS."

[srainhoutx]

Latest SPC Update 'hints' of a Slight Risk to our W and N...

...CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL/SRN TX...

HERE TOO...CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
DAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA ALONG 40-50 KT LLJ AXIS.
THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED TO THE N OF
SURFACE WARM FRONT WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WITH
TIME...REGENERATIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
PROGRESSIVELY SWD/SWWD...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ROOTED IN
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN TX.
FARTHER N ALONG PACIFIC/OCCLUDED FRONT... ISOLATED...SURFACE-BASED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM CNTRL OK INTO N-CNTRL TX MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S/ WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT OVER
CNTRL/SRN TX. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER THAN LOCATIONS
TO THE N/NW...LIMITING MLCAPE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY TO THE S/SE OF
PARENT CIRCULATION /I.E. GENERALLY S OF THE RED RIVER/...RESULTING
IN INCREASINGLY LONG HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ AXIS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DISPLACED TO THE NE/E
OF PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NET
RESULT IS RATHER LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS...SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A MORE
ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THEREFORE...LOW SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST. AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT DAY ONE OUTLOOKS ONCE
FINER-SCALE DETAILS IN THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FIELD BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

[Ptarmigan]

Did anyone hear thunder around 1:00 AM last night. I thought I did.

[wxdata]

Slight Risk edged a little closer to SE TX; still severe threat highest east of here on Saturday.

"ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY BE ONGOING WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX SATURDAY MORNING...THE GREATER THREAT
SHOULD EXIST FURTHER EAST AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. "

Houston NWS
"EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING AND INSTABILITY AND ONLY MODERATE SHEAR SO SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME. "

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... 0_prt.html

[weatherguy425]

Cell NW of abilene has the potentialof hving 1.5 diameter hail and maybe a hook developing on radar?

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL TX INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 192352Z - 200145Z

ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING
/02-03Z/ ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX SWD INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO
AROUND 1 INCH...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

AT 2345Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A STRONG TSTM LOCATED OVER FISHER
COUNTY TX...WITH THIS TSTM LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A SSEWD
MOVING COLD FRONT AND A SWD EXTENDING DRY LINE. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AS THE DRY
LINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION TRANSLATES SWD WITH THE SSEWD MOVEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
/WITH SURFACE INFLOW DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 F AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8 C/KM/ SUGGEST MUCAPE AROUND 700 J/KG. THIS COMBINED
WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SUPPORTS BOTH MULTICELL AND
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE SSEWD MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD UNDERCUT
MOST ACTIVITY ONCE IT DEVELOPS WITH STRONG WINDS BEING AN ADDITIONAL
THREAT WITH THE INITIAL PHASE OF THE STORMS.

..PETERS.. 03/19/2010


ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

[weatherguy425]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC123-285-201415-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0005.100320T1336Z-100320T1415Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
836 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DEWITT COUNTY...
LAVACA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT.

* AT 830 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER DEWITT AND LAVACA COUNTIES CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
ARE ALONG A FAST MOVING PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND WILL AFFECT
DEWITT AND LAVACA COUNTIES THROUGH 915 AM...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...SOME
HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HOCHHEIM...THOMASTON...
YOAKUM...HALLETTSVILLE AND EZZELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[srainhoutx]

Getting some bowing just W of Waller County as the squall line makes its run toward the area...(Warning Dailup Users)

[ticka1]

Its coming.

[weatherguy425]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
914 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

TXZ177-196>199-210>213-226-227-235-201515-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-COLORADO-FORT
BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-MONTGOMERY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
914 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 907 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 24 MILES NORTH OF
NAVASOTA TO 11 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS TO 31 MILES NORTHWEST OF EDNA
TO 32 MILES WEST OF EDNA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...WADSWORTH...VANDERBILT...SHERIDAN...ROCK ISLAND...ROANS
PRAIRIE...MORALES...LOUISE...EGYPT...SPRING...BEDIAS...ANDERSON...
WILLIS...WHARTON...TOMBALL...ROSENBERG...PRAIRIE VIEW...PINEHURST...
NAVASOTA...MONTGOMERY...LA WARD...KATY...HEMPSTEAD...EL CAMPO...
EDNA...EAGLE LAKE...CONROE...COLUMBUS...BELLVILLE...AND BEASLEY.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS TO
BLOW AROUND. AVOID TALL OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT CAN ATTRACT LIGHTNING.
IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE OR
NON-CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 2934 9659 2958 9682 2981 9650 3084 9614
3085 9608 3052 9538 2946 9575 2901 9637
2869 9654 2870 9664 2902 9684 2906 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1410Z 298DEG 31KT 3072 9603 2974 9635
2928 9699 2894 9714

[srainhoutx]

Line appears to be getting just abit stronger as it approaches the area.

[srainhoutx]

To our SW near Matagorda Bay...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC057-469-201545-
/O.NEW.KCRP.SV.W.0002.100320T1446Z-100320T1545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
946 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS
SOUTHERN VICTORIA COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 942 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH AND PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
VICTORIA COLLEGE...OR NEAR VICTORIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GUADALUPE AND TELFERNER BY 950 AM CDT...
DACOSTA BY 955 AM CDT...
POINT COMFORT BY 1040 AM CDT...