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srainhoutx wrote:NAM suggests a mighty close call...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _036.shtml

So if we do get lucky and receive some sleet/snow flurries, what time frame would our best chance in Metro Houston?

Off Topic: Thanks for everones input. I have been following this forum for several years but never registered. With this new forum software and all the great inputs from everyone, I decided to get in on the fun. Hopefully I can continue to learn more and contribute.

biggerbyte wrote:Well, I hate to say it, but I told ya so...


Muhahaha

We are getting sleet reports all over the area. Thursday night will need to be watched for folks in Montgomery County and points north. There could be a situation worse than just few scattered pellets of ice.

Oh well.. So much for no frozen precip... No?
Hey, around here, just a little fun is a lot.

Whatever happens this go round... Remember what wxman and cosgrove mention about the later part of the month. They are really on to something.. That is if current trends continue. Just like we needed to wait and see with this little bit of excitement, we will have to see about the middle to end of February.

Cold rain mixed with sleet WAS the forecast. And if you look at my earlier posts, you'll see that I mention that our best shot at sleet would come with the onset of precip today before the lower-level warming occurs with the West Gulf low developing, and again as the precip comes to an end Thursday night. So the weather is developing just as forecast 3-4 days ago for Houston.

Actually, I mentioned that our best shot at frozen precip would be today when the precip starts over at S2K on Monday morning. Here's the page with the post and projected vertical temperature profiles showing the cold air aloft today vs. 24 hours from now:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... start=5460

wxman, do you think there'll be another chance of mixed precip as the low passes overhead Thursday night?

weatherguy425 wrote:wxman, do you think there'll be another chance of mixed precip as the low passes overhead Thursday night?

Yes, I meant to add that to my post above. But the moisture will be leaving right around the time the airmass aloft cools below freezing.

so maybe sleet/rain again in the northern burbs (kingwood) but lightly as the trough moves out?

AggieEngr04 wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:NAM suggests a mighty close call...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _036.shtml

So if we do get lucky and receive some sleet/snow flurries, what time frame would our best chance in Metro Houston?

Off Topic: Thanks for everones input. I have been following this forum for several years but never registered. With this new forum software and all the great inputs from everyone, I decided to get in on the fun. Hopefully I can continue to learn more and contribute.

Welcome!

AggieEngr04 wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:NAM suggests a mighty close call...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _036.shtml

So if we do get lucky and receive some sleet/snow flurries, what time frame would our best chance in Metro Houston?

Off Topic: Thanks for everones input. I have been following this forum for several years but never registered. With this new forum software and all the great inputs from everyone, I decided to get in on the fun. Hopefully I can continue to learn more and contribute.

Yes, welcome AggieEngr04. There are a number of Aggies here on the forum. I'm class of '80.

wxman57 wrote:

biggerbyte wrote:Well, I hate to say it, but I told ya so...


Muhahaha

We are getting sleet reports all over the area. Thursday night will need to be watched for folks in Montgomery County and points north. There could be a situation worse than just few scattered pellets of ice.

Oh well.. So much for no frozen precip... No?
Hey, around here, just a little fun is a lot.

Whatever happens this go round... Remember what wxman and cosgrove mention about the later part of the month. They are really on to something.. That is if current trends continue. Just like we needed to wait and see with this little bit of excitement, we will have to see about the middle to end of February.

Cold rain mixed with sleet WAS the forecast. And if you look at my earlier posts, you'll see that I mention that our best shot at sleet would come with the onset of precip today before the lower-level warming occurs with the West Gulf low developing, and again as the precip comes to an end Thursday night. So the weather is developing just as forecast 3-4 days ago for Houston.

Actually, I mentioned that our best shot at frozen precip would be today when the precip starts over at S2K on Monday morning. Here's the page with the post and projected vertical temperature profiles showing the cold air aloft today vs. 24 hours from now:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... start=5460

Dude! Relax? Nobody said anything about your forecast.

Stay warm, wxman. I know how you get cold. My dad gets like that too. He may be worse than you though.

GFS has cold air moving in (what appears to be ) just as or after precip hs moved out.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif

the new NAM is slightly cooler.....going to get real tricky around the lukin area. forecast soundings are right on the rain/snow threshold for them.

Darn close....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _036.shtml

uh this bugs me, I live on the north side (kingwood) and it appears the "magic line" will be somewhere from roughly austin to montgomery to lumberton. Exactly how "perfect" do soundings have to be? I mean there has been winter mix without there being a true "P sounding".

Remember that RAOBS are Corpus and Lake Charles. We live in between. GFS looks rather interesting at hour 102...

ahah I think what i need to do is forget what i think may happen and ask a trusted " forum collegue" , srain... how do you feel about the chances of a mix on "the north side"?

weatherguy425 wrote:ahah I think what i need to do is forget what i think may happen and ask a trusted " forum collegue" , srain... how do you feel about the chances of a mix on "the north side"?

wxdata can confirm I had sleet today. Upper lows always raise an "eyebrow".

srainhoutx wrote:

weatherguy425 wrote:ahah I think what i need to do is forget what i think may happen and ask a trusted " forum collegue" , srain... how do you feel about the chances of a mix on "the north side"?

wxdata can confirm I had sleet today. Upper lows always raise an "eyebrow".

I can confirm. I drove down 290 to the Galleria with sleet 'bouncing' off the hood!

Will be interesting to see how much of the white stuff falls across the metroplex. 4km WRF keep the bulk of the precip south of I-20....although the NAM shows a heavier band of snow just to the north and west of DFW.

Here's the NAM snow forecast for north Texas

Here's the 00z gfs for the same area:



well the pic won't show, so here's the link. It's not nearly as impressive as the NAM.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overla ... TIONID=FWS

Finally, HGX mentions the possibility of accumulation snow for northern areas of SE TX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
516 AM CST THU FEB 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT ON THE TABLE FOR OUR FCST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS WE
DEAL WITH THE SPECTER OF WINTRY PCPN (MAINLY OVER THE NRN PARTS OF
THE CWA). LATEST PROGGED SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH WHAT HAPPENED DURING
THE AFTN YESTERDAY ALL TRENDING TOWARD THE PROSPECT OF MORE WINTRY
PCPN FOR PARTS OF SE TX.

ABUNDANT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE VIA THE PACIFIC COMBINED WITH STRONG
EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY AND COLD TEMPS AT THE SFC ALL HAVE MODELS GO-
ING WITH SNOW AND/OR SLEET-SNOW MIX FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM LAKE SOMERVILLE/HUNTSVILLE/CORRIGAN TODAY/TONIGHT AND ON
INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRI. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS WITH
REGARD TO POSSIBLE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. ATTM WILL BE RUNNING WITH
WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED 2 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA. AS FOR THE REST OF SE TX RAIN TOTALS
EXPECTED SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP
TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

Aviation discussion also mentions the possibility of some thunder snow for College Station and Huntsville.

There will likely be a winter weather advisory issued for northern counties of SE TX later today... Far northern areas could near winter storm warning criteria. I still believe we'll see some snow falling too as all of this mess pushes east tommorow morning.

And yes, the sleet was fun to see yesterday!