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Yeah, that seems to be the case here in se tex. winter weather is just to hard to predict. just when you think you have it figured out. mother nature lets you know who is in charge.

6z NAM and 6z GFS have trended towards the deeper European solutions (ECMWF, CMC, UKMET), but still not there yet... As such, HGX follows warm outlier GFS again, and this is what you get:

For Brazos County (HGX)
Tonight...Cloudy. A chance of rain in the evening...then rain likely after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent in the evening increasing to 70 percent after midnight.

Thursday...Rain. Highs in the lower 40s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Thursday Night...Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening...then a chance of rain after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent in the evening decreasing to 30 percent after midnight.


Now, just travel a county north out of the HGX zone and you get this:
For Robertson County (FWD)
Tonight...Cloudy. A slight chance of rain in the evening...then rain and snow likely after midnight. No snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 30s. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Thursday...Rain and snow in the morning...then rain and a chance of snow in the afternoon. Very light to moderate snow accumulations possible on grass and elevated surfaces. Temperatures steady in the mid 30s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Thursday Night...Rain and snow in the evening...then a chance of rain and snow after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Nice coordination... The fact that HGX is not even mentioning the chance of some snow or sleet mixing in with the rain across at least northern counties is baffling to me.

Hints about the future...

HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AXIS LINGERS OUT WEST. AS SUCH ANOTHER S/WV PROGGED FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. AND WHILE THERE ARE CONCERNS WITH AVAILABLE MOIST-
URE...THE PERSISTENCE WITH WHICH MODELS ARE HANGING ONTO THIS DOES
GIVE PAUSE AND WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN FOR SUNDAY. AS FOR THE LONG-
RANGE FCST...WE ARE ALSO SEEING A LOT MORE CONSENSUS WITH THE IDEA
OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND THE RESULTANT DEEP NNW
FLOW ALOFT FOR US. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASED CHANCES OF
ARCTIC AIRMASSES HEADED THIS WAY...WITH THE OCCASIONAL S/WV OR TWO.41

Remember that time the NAM and GFS began to drastically switch over to the Euro, CMC, and UKMET models showing a proper phase with that system out in the West?

OLD 0z NAM friday morning:





New 12z NAM friday morning:




Shifts again towards the Euro, UKMET, and CMC... It looks as though the NAM and GFS have been much too weak with this system and have not properly shown correct phasing with the northern stream as the coastal low develops and pushes off to the east.

Now, I don't know what specific soundings look like for IAH at that period, but there is likely some snow falling across northern areas of SE TX. The NAM still is not quite as strong or cold as the European trio, so today's 12z runs will be very critical to see if we have a developing suprise on our hands.

If the 0z CMC, Euro, or UKMET were to verify, the upper levels would be cold enough to support a changeover to snow over the Houston area as the coastal low scoots on by. 12z NAM is darn close, but it's trying to catch up.

Some very awful run to run consistency by the GFS and NAM in the handling of the upper air pattern within the 60 hour time frame here...
Just look at the handling of the NAM of the upper air pattern for friday morning. Bad.

Anyway, here is the 0z CMC I've been reference. It has remained steadfast with the chance of some wintry fun around the area for friday morning for a few runs now...

And, to try to make myself more clear, I'm not talking about accumulating snow or anything right now, just a much better chance at seeing some snow flying through the air around here friday morning... For one thing, surface temperatures would be marginal for accumulation and the system will be moving fast.

Thank you, Mr. T., for all of that helpful data and clarity. So if anyone wants any oppotunity at all to feasibly see some snow or sleet mixed in with rain friday morning, here in SE Texas, do not wait until noon to get up because precipitation chances will be going down rather quickly as the day progresses. Right, Mr. T?

NWS receiving multiple reports of sleet falling in San Antonio as of 9:30 a.m.

sleetstorm wrote:Thank you, Mr. T., for all of that helpful data and clarity. So if anyone wants any oppotunity at all to feasibly see some snow or sleet mixed in with rain friday morning, here in SE Texas, do not wait until noon to get up because precipitation chances will be going down rather quickly as the day progresses. Right, Mr. T?

Yes, that is correct. The NAM is a little slower moving everything out, but we should be dry as friday morning rolls through. Friday overnight is looking interesting.

Look at these differences between the 0z GFS at 6z friday and the 12z GFS at the same time:

OLD 0z GFS midnight friday:


NEW 0z GFS midnight friday:


Look how much lower thicknesses are across the area compared to the previous run. In a word, horrible, HORRIBLE handling of this upper air feature by the NAM and GFS. And yet, the NAM and GFS are STILL slightly warmer than the "European Trio"... Who wants to bet the 18z GFS and NAM come in colder still?


I'm not sure why the NAM and GFS have been completely clueless with this system, while the European Trio (ECMWF, UKMET, CMC) have latched onto this idea of some winter precip over the area since two days ago... I'm also not sure why everyone has been ignoring the model consensus and going with the warmer outlier GFS (which it still slightly is). It's time for the NWS to wake up

Hmm does make you wonder if we could possibly have another "suprise" snow event? similar to december 2008...

It's snowing at Randolph Air Force Base in the Schertz area, which is a NE suburb of SA.

I see that when wxman runs his maps, they are all off of GFS data. Why is that wxman? I hardly ever see you post data off of other models. I'm guessing you like the GFS a lot more than others this time of year?

don wrote:Hmm does make you wonder if we could possibly have anothe "suprise" snow event? similar to december 2008...

I'm not sure if surface temperatures will cool sufficiently to allow accumulation, or if the precipiation will be heavy enough, but I do think we stand a chance to see some snow tommorow night just as the precipiation ends and heads eastward.

This isn't really that much of a "suprise", as it is forecasters following an outlier model for whatever reason.

Update from HGX:

WILL BE ASSESSING THE CHC OF A POSSIBLE RA/SN/IP MIX ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA LATE THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING
WITH THE AFT FCST PACKAGE. 33

I think the threat extends into the Metro area, but at least they are finally saying something.

San Marcos is now seeing a sleet and snow mix! Thanks for the heads up, Hannah Montana

The 12z shows the freezing line clearing the Houston area for hours 114-168. Unfortunately, I don't see that there is precip indicated anywhere nearby, at least in this model and in this run. Anyone seeing indications from other models/sources that they could be off regarding chances for precip during this timeframe next week?

txsnowmaker wrote:The 12z shows the freezing line clearing the Houston area for hours 114-168. Unfortunately, I don't see that there is precip indicated anywhere nearby, at least in this model and in this run. Anyone seeing indications from other models/sources that they could be off regarding chances for precip during this timeframe next week?

It will be a dry, but cold, northerly flow during that time. The main focus for wintry precip around here will be tommorow evening through friday morning.

Mr. T wrote:

txsnowmaker wrote:The 12z shows the freezing line clearing the Houston area for hours 114-168. Unfortunately, I don't see that there is precip indicated anywhere nearby, at least in this model and in this run. Anyone seeing indications from other models/sources that they could be off regarding chances for precip during this timeframe next week?

It will be a dry, but cold, northerly flow during that time. The main focus for wintry precip around here will be tommorow evening through friday morning.

Thanks, Mr T. Will refocus on this week and hope for some flakes around here in the next day or two.

(With help from the files of Wxman57)






Come on Houston Snow. Just roll one for a Houston Snow!!!

Sleet being reported at NWS in New Braunfels and northern sections of San Antonio

I think this forum is excellent and wanted to say thank you to all that in put, especially the promets.

I want snow!!!! I live in the northern part or Bryan, Texas (Hearn is about 15 miles northwest to us). Do we have any chance of seeing anything measureable about of this storm? Maybe a snow chant or dance would help?!!!!! Any input any of you have would be awsome as the anticipation is about to kill me.



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