don wrote:Yep the GFS shows the freezing line a little north of the I-10 corridor for most of the event with light to moderate snow and freezing rain/sleet over areas north of I-10 for what its worth.
Yeah. A very messy and complicated precip type forecast according to this run for SE TX.
Luckily, we are talking day 6 and 7 here, so the exact details are not important right now. The threat of something "fun", remains...
I guess I'll stay up for the CMC and Euro to see what they have to say about all of this
fwiw, the rest of the run shows continued cold and wet
The 12z and 18z GFS ensemble mean did show another sustained pattern of below normal heights lasting from day 10 through 16, so I wouldn't expect another above average pattern to develop any time soon. It looks cold and dreary yet again (December redo).
I remember back in late November when the ensembles were screaming for a sustained cold pattern to begin during the December timeframe and last for quite some time. They definitely nailed that pattern down.
Blocking looks to relax briefly around mid month. That may very well open the door for a colder pattern beyond Valentines Day. The blocking pattern relaxed around the end of December. We know what follow that episode.
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srainhoutx wrote:Blocking looks to relax briefly around mid month. That may very well open the door for a colder pattern beyond Valentines Day. The blocking pattern relaxed around the end of December. We know what follow that episode.
To me, it looks like the unfolding pattern looks a lot like what we saw throughout December. Perhaps a last blast of cold air to end this month?
It is interesting that we have not once had a true cross polar flow this entire winter, and yet we have already seen some of the coldest readings in 15 years across the area... It just goes to show that you do not need mind boggling cold to enter the US for us to get cold down here... It is already cold in Canada at any time in the winter. If you can get the right pattern to develop, whatever is up there can spill all the way down to the TX Gulf Coast.
Correct me if I am wrong, but according to the latest GFS run, it looks like the ice/rain line appears to be stubbornly hovering just north of metro Houston late next week, with the snow line even further north. The good news is that we are still a ways out, and while those lines could move further north, there is also plenty of time for them to move further south. Here is hoping for the ice/rain line to move toward the coast, allowing for the city of Houston to be covered in white.
I miss the sunshine and 70 degree temps, but can't complain too much about the recent temps! It's the rain and clouds that I'm getting tired of! Looks like more cold on the way to keep reinforcing the below avg readings of late!
The GFS is definitely the wettest out of all the models, though (hey, worked well with the Dec 4th storm). The Euro (warmest model) and CMC are much drier...
Here is the 0z GFS ensemble mean at hour 168, indicating QPF and 850 mb temperatures. The average of all of the ensemble members definitely support the operational GFS:
snipit from Houston/Galveston nws discussion this morning:
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST BEYOND WED WITH VARYING MODEL SOLNS. GFS
DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE & MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT OVERUNNING COLD AIR
AT THE SFC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS
SHOWING A WAA SCENERIO WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
AND A LESS ACTIVE (DRY) UPPER FLOW. COOR WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
AND AGREED TO SPLIT THE TEMP DIFFERENCES AND THROW IN SOME LOWISH
POPS. HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE DAYS
TO COME THOUGH SINCE IF GFS ENDS UP BEING RIGHT WE`LL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTER WX LATE WED-FRI. AND FWIW -
GFS ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FAR
OUT. 47
New IAH meteograms from 06Z GFS run. Nothing significant indicated here on that run. Time to head to the office. Will be busy in meetings most of the morning.
Just an FYI regarding the GFS. RECON is rather busy in the Pacific and the Atlantic...
000
NOUS42 KNHC 041815
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0115 PM EST THU 04 FEBRUARY 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z FEBRUARY 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-066
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 76
A. A61/ SAILE/ 06/0100Z
B. AFXXX 05WSA TRACK61
C. 05/2130Z
D. 4 DROPS AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 06/0300Z
F. COUNTERCLOCKWISE
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. P27/ 35.5N 156.0W / 06/1200Z
B. AFXXX 17WSC TRACK27
C. 06/0600Z
D. 19 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 06/1800Z
FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. P99/ 44.8N 170.0W/ 06/1200Z
B. NOAA9 18WSW TRACK99
C. 06/0800Z
D. DROPS EVERY 20 MINUTES
E. 39,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 06/1800Z
F. TRACK 36.6N 141.2E, 39.6N 146.3E, 42.3N 152.2E,
44.6N 155.6E, 46.8N 163.7E, 44.8 170.0E, 42.0N
170.2E, 40.6N 166.5E, 42.0N 161.4E, 39.1N 158.0E
AND 36.5N 140.1E
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. TRACK P99/ TBD/ 07/1200Z
JWP
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Snippet from NWS - winter will not be over just yet after this little blast on the 11th/12th. Looks like the deep flow pattern we've had will continue till end of the month.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 12 - 18 2010
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN GENERAL OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE SEEMS REMARKABLY
STABLE, AND THE RIDGE ANTICIPATED OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN EUROPE MAY BE
HELPING TO FURTHER ANCHOR THE FLOW PATTERN. IN ADDITION, THE ATLANTIC PORTION
OF THIS PATTERN PROJECTS WELL ON THE NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO),
AND IN A BROADER SENSE, A NEGATIVE AO.
"Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning." - The late/great George Carlin
i am going to Dilley, Tx (about an hour south of San Antonio) on the 10th,11th,and 12th for a quail hunt. Can someone give me their best guess as to what i should expect. Weather wise that is, i know there aren't any quail. Thanks in advance!
Mr. T wrote:Here is the 0z GFS ensemble mean at hour 168, indicating QPF and 850 mb temperatures. The average of all of the ensemble members definitely support the operational GFS:
Mr. T, that computer model looks very much like southeast Texas will receive a good sleet storm. Or do you not concur?
Temperatures in the mid thirties are adequtely cold enough to support sleet. Yes, we are still several days away from the actual event itself with more then enough time for all of those computer models to change, but there is a degree of consistency and the potential for at least a good sleet storm is not out of the question for southeast Texas starting sometime next week.
