More cold air on the way next week!?

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tireman4
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wxman57 wrote:Very small sleet pellets at Beltway 8 near I-45. About the size of a pin head (1-2mm or about 1/16" diameter). Soundings did indicate that the best chance for sleet here would be with the onset of precip before low-level warm advection sets in when the low develops. But we could see rain/sleet mixed tomorrow. Wouldn't rule out a snowflake, but don't look for any accumulations.

I concur with Wxman57....it is sleeting over here at Gulfgate.
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Sleeting in Tomball as well.
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wxman57
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Here's the lower part of a vertical temperature profile (RUC 21Z) to show what's happening aloft. For those who can't read the chart, it shows snow falling from a height of 18,000 to 6000ft up. Below 6000 ft there is a warm layer which melts the snowflakes (they're delicate). Below about 3000 ft the raindrops (melted snow) hit a sub-freezing layer for a couple thousand feet. This freezes the raindrops into ice (sleet). The sleet falls through about 1000-2000 ft of above-freezing air, surviving to hit the ground. They're small because much of the sleet is melting off on the way down.

Now currently there is only a thin layer of above freezing temperatures aloft, with the exception of the very lowest layer that reaches the mid 40s. There's a slim chance that if the airmass modifies slightly between 3000-6000 ft and drops closer to freezing that a few snowflakes may make it to the ground, though somewhat melted. I think I MAY have seen 1-2 of these on my drive home, as the spot on my windshield looked more like slushy snow than sleet at least once.

Don't get your hope up (even slightly) that you'll awaken tomorrow to a snow-covered landscape. That airmass aloft should WARM overnight, reducing the chances for sleet or snow. It's cold rain for us tomorrow, but you still COULD see a trace of sleet tomorrow night.

Note: Heights on the chart are very approximate

Image
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tireman4
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Thanks Wxman57. That was a great chart.
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Had some sleet briefly in LaPorte..Was bouncing off the windshield but it stopped
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srainhoutx
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Look forward to seeing what the 00Z soundings show for tomorrow. Better yet the 12Z's tomorrow for Thursday night as the Upper Low approaches. HGX seems to think areas N and E of Montgomery County may see some accumulation on grassy surfaces.
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For the radar aficionados

KHGX HAS SWITCHED TO THE STRATIFORM WINTER ZR RELATIONSHIP...130 TO THE 2.0. AT
2030Z/FEB 9. KP
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I was looking at the nyc metro area and they are getting pounded right now.....coastal low bombing off the coast. What exactly is a trowal wxman57? Warm air wrapping into the low? I've heard this term a lot lately......
'There's a spirit can ne'er be told...'
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srainhoutx wrote:Look forward to seeing what the 00Z soundings show for tomorrow. Better yet the 12Z's tomorrow for Thursday night as the Upper Low approaches. HGX seems to think areas N and E of Montgomery County may see some accumulation on grassy surfaces.
Houston/Trinity/Polk counties and NE may see some wet slushy snow early Friday morning...profile gets better N and E of our region...anything south of this will likely see no accumulation...could see some mixing of P-types along and N of a line from Hempstead to Conroe to N Liberty Co
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Katdaddy
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Sleet downtown earlier...could not post from my Blackberry earlier.
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srainhoutx
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Katdaddy wrote:Sleet downtown earlier...could not post from my Blackberry earlier.

Were you not able to log in via BB?
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Katdaddy
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The connection time-out. It was the weather forum.

It was NOT the weather forum! Typo in my post and glad I checked. Sorry for the confusion.
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srainhoutx
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Katdaddy wrote:The connection time-out. It was the weather forum.

It was NOT the weather forum! Typo in my post and glad I checked. Sorry for the confusion.
Thanks Katdaddy.
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srainhoutx
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Larry Cosgrove in the Houston Examiner tonight...I suspect the night crew will be busy... :mrgreen:

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... ry-11-2010
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8 inches :shock:

Hope this will verify for me.
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Good for you mesovortex. My relatives, who live in Denton, have gotten quite a bit, happening, of course, after I called and bragged about our little, tiny snowfall event on Dec. 4th.
Nothing since then except miserably cloudy, cold, and wet weather.
Hey, I did see a few sleet pellets today.......Yippee. :roll:
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Well, it may snow--especially north of the beltway. HOWEVER, the only reason why it would is the same reason is IP'd today--evaporative cooling. With that said, evaporative cooling is only sufficient at the beginning of an event before the column becomes saturated and or begins to mix with warmer air in the boundary layer. I would not rule out snow tomorrow, but doubt it will amount to a big event. We'll see. I think it has already exceeded expectations. LOL. I'm watching with bated breath.
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Well, I hate to say it, but I told ya so...


Muhahaha

We are getting sleet reports all over the area. Thursday night will need to be watched for folks in Montgomery County and points north. There could be a situation worse than just few scattered pellets of ice.

Oh well.. So much for no frozen precip... No?
Hey, around here, just a little fun is a lot.

Whatever happens this go round... Remember what wxman and cosgrove mention about the later part of the month. They are really on to something.. That is if current trends continue. Just like we needed to wait and see with this little bit of excitement, we will have to see about the middle to end of February.
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srainhoutx
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NAM suggests a mighty close call...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _036.shtml
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biggerbyte wrote:Well, I hate to say it, but I told ya so...


Muhahaha

We are getting sleet reports all over the area. Thursday night will need to be watched for folks in Montgomery County and points north. There could be a situation worse than just few scattered pellets of ice.

Oh well.. So much for no frozen precip... No?
Hey, around here, just a little fun is a lot.

Whatever happens this go round... Remember what wxman and cosgrove mention about the later part of the month. They are really on to something.. That is if current trends continue. Just like we needed to wait and see with this little bit of excitement, we will have to see about the middle to end of February.
Yeah... I must admit that I was on the verge of giving up on any frozen precip whatsoever until Ed Mahmoud chimed-in with "happy cancel" and "only a very cold rain" pronouncements, and then I knew karma was on our side. :mrgreen: I would doubt that we can cancel Friday HISD for Ed... but some of us on the north side might see more than a flake or two, based on the current NAM. ;) But seriously folks... Ed may have reverse-wish-casted us into a happy Friday.
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